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Malaria ConsortiumMalaria Consortium
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Burkina FasoChadCôte d'IvoireDRCDRCDRCDRCMozambiqueNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaSouth SudanTogoUganda
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Main calculationsunittypeOverallHaut-KatangaHaut-LomamiLualabaTanganyikaNampulaBauchiBornoFCT (Abuja)KebbiKogiNasarawaOyoPlateauSokotoNorthern Bahr El Ghazal Karamoja
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Final cost-effectiveness estimate (pulled from below for visibility)xcashfeed-18.613.07.98.29.611.312.78.242.140.412.738.122.419.215.919.040.96.68.07.6
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Costs
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GiveWell costs
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Grant size$input-$0$3,359,153$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$1,087,342$0$2,731,480
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Cost breakdown
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Percentage of total costs covered by the grantee%input-89%90%91%50%50%50%50%89%82%89%89%89%89%89%89%89%89%91%50%89%
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Percentage of total costs covered by other philanthropic actors%input-0%0%0%44%44%44%44%0%9%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%44%0%
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Percentage of total costs covered by domestic governments%input-11%10%9%6%6%6%6%11%10%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%9%6%11%
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Total costs
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Total spending by all contributors$calc-$0$3,723,089$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$1,189,656$0$3,057,697
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Total spending attributable to different actors
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Total spending contributed by grantee$calc-$0$3,359,153$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$1,087,342$0$2,731,480
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Total spending contributed by other philanthropic actors$calc-$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0
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Total spending contributed by domestic governments $calc-$0$363,936$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$102,314$0$326,217
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Upstream / downstream spending
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Total spending causally upstream of donations to grantee$calc-$0$3,359,153$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$1,087,342$0$2,731,480
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Total spending causally downstream of donations to grantee$calc-$0$363,936$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$102,314$0$326,217
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Cost per child covered
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Cost per seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) cycle administered$input-$1.64$1.94$2.53$1.94$1.94$1.94$1.94$2.99$0.88$0.74$1.52$1.13$1.36$1.15$1.81$1.25$0.99$4.64$1.93$2.24
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Number of SMC cycles per year#input-4.34.05.04.04.04.04.04.05.04.05.04.05.05.05.05.04.05.04.05.0
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Total cost per child treated with all cycles of SMC in a year$calc-$7.08$7.77$12.63$7.77$7.77$7.77$7.77$11.94$4.42$2.95$7.59$4.51$6.81$5.76$9.04$6.23$3.97$23.20$7.73$11.21
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Upstream costs per child treated with all cycles of SMC in a year$calc-$6.33$7.01$11.45$7.32$7.32$7.32$7.32$10.68$4.00$2.64$6.79$4.04$6.09$5.15$8.09$5.57$3.55$21.20$7.27$10.01
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Outputs
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Total children covered
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Total people under age 5 receiving a year of SMC#calc-0478,86100000000000000051,2790272,747
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Outcomes
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Mortality reduction among people under age 5 (treated population)
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Reduction in malaria incidence for children under age 5 targeted for SMC found in GiveWell's adjusted version of the Meremikwu et al. 2012 meta-analysis%input75%--------------------
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Estimated proportion of children targeted for SMC in trials that received SMC%input90%--------------------
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Implied reduction in malaria incidence among children under age 5 receiving SMC%calc84%--------------------
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Internal validity adjustment%input-5%--------------------
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External validity adjustment%input0%--------------------
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Adjustment for lower effectiveness outside the Sahel region of Africa%input-0%0%0%-20%-20%-20%-20%-20%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%-20%
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Expected reduction in malaria incidence among children under age 5 receiving SMC%calc-79%79%79%64%64%64%64%64%79%79%79%79%79%79%79%79%79%79%79%64%
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Ratio of the reduction in malaria mortality to the reduction in malaria incidence%input100%--------------------
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Expected reduction in malaria mortality among children under age 5 receiving SMC%calc-79%79%79%64%64%64%64%64%79%79%79%79%79%79%79%79%79%79%79%64%
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Annual malaria mortality rate among 3-59-month-olds%supp-0.48%0.24%0.25%0.20%0.24%0.30%0.36%0.33%0.42%0.21%0.16%0.36%0.24%0.20%0.24%0.22%0.38%0.31%0.18%0.29%
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Indirect malaria deaths per direct malaria death#input0.75--------------------
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Total malaria-attributable mortality rate (including direct and indirect malaria deaths)%calc-0.84%0.42%0.43%0.36%0.42%0.53%0.63%0.58%0.74%0.37%0.28%0.63%0.43%0.36%0.42%0.38%0.66%0.54%0.32%0.50%
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Relative reduction in mortality rate due to vaccine rollout%input--14%-2%-12%-11%-11%-11%-11%-17%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-14%-13%-17%
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Total malaria-attributable mortality rate (including direct and indirect malaria deaths and adjustment for malaria vaccine rollout)%calc-0.72%0.41%0.38%0.32%0.37%0.47%0.56%0.48%0.66%0.33%0.25%0.56%0.38%0.32%0.37%0.34%0.58%0.47%0.28%0.42%
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Expected number of annual malaria-attributable mortalities among the target population in the absence of SMC#calc-01,96000000000000000023901,141
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Proportion of annual malaria mortality that occurs during the SMC season%input-70%70%70%52%52%52%52%52%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%62%
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Expected number of malaria-attributable mortalities among the target population during the SMC season in the absence of SMC#calc-01,3720000000000000001680707
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Total deaths averted among people under age 5#calc-01,0890000000000000001330452
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Mortality reduction among people age 5 and older (untreated population)
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Reduction in malaria incidence among the SMC-eligible population found in Cisse et al. 2016%input60%--------------------
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Reduction in malaria incidence among the population too old to be eligible for SMC found in Cisse et al. 2016%input26%--------------------
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Implied proportion of the protective effect of SMC received by the population too old to be eligible for SMC%calc43%--------------------
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Adjustment for differences in program coverage and transmission intensity in the populations studied by the Cisse et al. 2016 trial and the populations targeted by grantee programs%input-69%--------------------
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Expected proportion of the protective effect of SMC received by the population too old to be eligible for SMC%calc13%--------------------
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Expected reduction in malaria incidence among people age 5 and older%calc-11%11%11%9%9%9%9%9%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%9%
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Ratio of the reduction in malaria mortality to the reduction in malaria incidence%feed100%--------------------
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Expected reduction in malaria mortality among people age 5 and older%calc-11%11%11%9%9%9%9%9%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%9%
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Malaria mortalities among people age 5 and older per malaria mortality among 3-59-month-olds#supp-0.80.71.20.40.40.40.41.80.31.11.30.61.91.12.31.20.40.41.70.4
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Expected number of malaria-attributable mortalities among the target population during the SMC season in the absence of SMC#calc-0899000000000000000720279
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Total deaths averted among people age 5 and older#calc-0950000000000000008024
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Malaria incidence reduction among people under age 15
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Adjusted malaria incidence among people under 5%supp-99%48%73%75%90%95%92%84%88%63%50%94%86%68%89%74%66%70%63%77%
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Adjusted malaria incidence among people age 5 to 14%supp-41%22%31%31%37%39%38%35%37%28%21%39%35%29%36%31%29%29%27%33%
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Expected reduction in malaria incidence among people under 5pptcalc-55%27%41%25%29%31%30%28%49%35%28%52%48%38%50%41%37%39%35%31%
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Expected reduction in malaria incidence among people age 5 to 14pptcalc-3%2%2%1%2%2%2%2%3%2%2%3%3%2%3%2%2%2%2%2%
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National population under 5#input-4,106,4653,635,5154,354,39113,560,74013,560,74013,560,74013,560,7405,179,21737,117,84237,117,84237,117,84237,117,84237,117,84237,117,84237,117,84237,117,84237,117,8421,562,3341,172,5107,317,718
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National population age 5 to 14#input-6,265,7025,379,3827,217,39324,438,17924,438,17924,438,17924,438,1799,086,79264,471,22064,471,22064,471,22064,471,22064,471,22064,471,22064,471,22064,471,22064,471,2202,732,6172,136,53212,517,987
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Number of 5-14-year-olds exposed to spillover effects per person targeted to receive SMC#calc-1.51.51.71.81.81.81.81.81.71.71.71.71.71.71.71.71.71.71.81.7
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Total 5-14-year-olds exposed to spillover effects from SMC#calc-0708,55900000000000000089,6900466,572
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Malaria cases averted among people under age 5#calc-0127,36500000000000000019,950083,272
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Malaria cases averted among people age 5 to 14#calc-011,4840000000000000001,95808,111
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Long-term income increases for people under age 15
86
Increase in annual income per malaria case averted among people under age 15%input0.6%--------------------
87
Adjusted increase in ln(income) per malaria case averted among people under age 15ln($)calc0.006--------------------
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Average number of years between receiving SMC and the beginning of long-term benefits#input12.5--------------------
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Discount rate for future benefits%input4.0%--------------------
90
Discounted increase in ln(income) per malaria case averted among people under age 15ln($)calc0.004--------------------
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Expected number of years the long-term benefits of receiving SMC will last#input40--------------------
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Present value of individual lifetime benefits per malaria case averted among people under age 15ln($)calc0.08--------------------
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Multiplier for resource sharing within households#input2--------------------
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Present value of total lifetime benefits per malaria case averted among people under age 15ln($)calc0.16--------------------
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Present value of increase in units of annual ln(income) among people under age 5ln($)calc-020,6610000000000000003,236013,508
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Present value of increase in units of annual ln(income) among people age 5 to 14ln($)calc-01,86300000000000000031801,316
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Total present value of units of increase in units of annual ln(income) among people under age 15ln($)calc-022,5240000000000000003,554014,824
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Value of outcomes
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