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THE YELLOW CELLS ARE YOUR ONLY REQUIRED INPUTS. ALL THE OTHER NUMBERS WILL BE CALCULATED.
Expected Revenue Scenarios For MP Materials$ Revenues in 2040Factor SizeProbability
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Your inputsA1: Stated Policy Scenario$2230.1
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Growth (Autos) LeverA2: Sustainable Development Scenario$5170.7
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How much will MP have in revenues in 2040?MP Will have 30% Market ShareA3: Net Zero Scenario$73100.1
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Expected MP revenues in 2040 ($ million) $ 13,559.40 MP Will have 30% Market Share$147.29$45.20
<-- Expected
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Growth (Software, Robotaxi and Energy) Lever
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How much will MP have in revenues from other businesss in ?2040 AA6: Direct Input (Enter revenues in 2040)
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 Expected Other Revenues in 2040 (in $ bil)$ Billion Revenues in 2040
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AA6: Direct Input (Enter revenues in 2040)$0
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Profitability Lever
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What operating margin will MP Auto have in 2040 (and beyond)?B7: Direct InputOperating Margin in 2040 Target Operating Margin
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Operating margin in 204044.00%
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With your operating margin, MP's operating profits in 2040 ($ million) $ 1,600.80
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Investment Efficiency LeverB7: Direct Input44.00%
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How many dollars of revenues will MP generate per $ of investment?C7: Direct Input
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Sales to Invested Capital used in valuation1.20Sales to Invested CapitalSales to Capital (1st 5 years)
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With your investment input, MP's return on capital in 204028.83%
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Risk Levers
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What cost of capital do you want to give MP initially?D6: Direct Input
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If direct input, enter the cost of capital12.00%
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What is the probability of failureE3: 20% (Money loser, High Debt)
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C7: Direct Input1.20
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Your key inputs wrere
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Expected Revenue Growth rate for next 5 years =27.98%Cost of CapitalInitial cost of capital
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Expected Pre-tax Operating Margin in year 5 =44.00%
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Sales to Invested Capital for first 5 years =1.20
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Cost of capital to start =12.00%
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And with these inptus, your value is
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MP's value of equity today = $ 14,367.83 D6: Direct Input12.00%
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MP's value per share today = $ 81.17
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Failure LikelihoodProbability of failure
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E1: No chance0%
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E2: 10% (Marginal profitability, High Debt)10%
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E3: 20% (Money loser, High Debt)20%
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E4: 50% (Low Growth, Money loser, High Debt)50%
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