Neglectedness in Singapore

Tractability in Singapore

Reason/evidence

Reason/evidence

Reason/evidence

Local EA-align philsophy

Reason/evidence

Language issues

Reason/evidence

Reason/evidence

Brussel's effect

Reason/evidence

Effective public institutions

Reason/evidence

Presence of key institutions

Reason/evidence

Market demand

Reason/evidence

Control of supply chains

Reason/evidence

Reason/evidence

Reason/evidence

Technology transfer

Reason/evidence

Testing ground

Reason/evidence

Routes to influence

Reason/evidence

Reason/evidence

Effective cause-align organisations

Reason/evidence

Reason/evidence

Existing EA Presence

Reason/evidence

Probability of human extinction due to AI risks = 5% according to informal survey in a global catastrophic risks conference
Outcome = 10^16 of all humans including those in the future(lower bound of Bostrom's estimation)
Expected value = 500 trillion

What is the timeline like for transformative AI? I remember reading somewhere that an organisation is working on this.
What are the existential risks like in the next 30, 50, 100 years?
What are the likely existential risk scenarios? If it's not like "Terminator", what would it look like?

How many jobs are there in technical AI safety research?
How many jobs are there in AI governance?
How many talents are there in Singapore who fit the JDs?
What is the talent gap like in this industry?
Are there more jobs than job seekers?
Are these jobs only for locals?
What organisations are out there working on either technical AI safety research or AI governance?
Any upcoming organisations that will enter the space?
Any organisations exiting that space?

I would consider most of the funding to be used for AI R&D, and not for AI safety/ethics/governance.

S$500m will be used to fund “AI-related research, innovation and enterprise activities under the RIE2020 Plan", which is under NRF. (https://www.smartnation.sg/docs/default-source/default-document-library/national-ai-strategy.pdf)

NRF will invest up to $150 million over five years in AI Singapore. (https://www.nrf.gov.sg/programmes/artificial-intelligence-r-d-programme)

Funding for Centre for Strategic Futures under PMO

FAANG, Huawei, Alibaba, and SenseTime are all here and probably a few of them are putting a small percentage into AI safety.

How much is government spending on technical AI safety research and AI governance?
How much are academic research institutions spending on technical AI safety research and AI governance?
How much is the private sector spending on technical AI safety research and AI governance?
How much foreign philanthropic money (Open Phil, etc) is spent here in Singapore for AI safety?
What is the marginal value of increasing another SG$1m?
How much more funding do local researchers need for AI safety research?

Pretty Westernised and cosmopolitan compared to other Asian countries.

When asked how much they support EA ideas and goals, intro meetup participants have gave me a 3.8/5.0 rating. There are generally at least one participant who is negative about it.

Still pretty niche and new.

Singapore is very likely to have one of the highest English literacy rates in the world.

To what extent is English used in this location?
How easy is it to translate and apply existing EA ideas?
What translated resources already exist?
What is local sentiment towards foreign ideas and influence?

The Singapore government is generally open to long term considerations. It has engaged with CSER and Nick Bostrom on a few occasions.

However, uncertain what's it like on the ground.

What are some of the past movements that have occurred in this location?
How have past movements looked like in this location?
How successful were movements involving the import of ideologies that first originated from Western countries?
How transferable are lessons learned from Western movements?

A few people I spoke to have given me a sense that Singapore has had an outsized impact on international relations in the past, mainly by being a model for other countries and a neutral meeting point for foreign companies and governments. (https://www.ft.com/content/2adc8d68-20a6-11e5-aa5a-398b2169cf79)

However, I don't have any more references to verify this.

"Singapore will continue to work with key international organisations such as the World Economic Forum (WEF) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in a bid to build thought leadership in setting AI-related policies and standards so as to remain relevant in this rapidly evolving field." (https://medium.com/@smuaiclub/everything-you-need-to-know-about-singapores-ai-strategy-dd900f8186d1) - probably not a substantive evidence

There three government-to-goverment projects (Shuzou, Tianjing, Chongqing) between Singapore and China before. China has sent 15,000 officials to Singapore for training. China is becoming less reliant on Singapore as it builds up its capacity, but still seek advice from Singapore on things we do well (e.g. port management). But pessimistic about this - as Singapore has little say to what other countries choose to do. It's more like a copy-best-practices kind of relationship for things they like in Singapore. Perhaps one way to build a model of governance that is less western (less emphasis on individual rights but it's still "safe") - DGB2019, Jia Yuan Loke (my phrasing)

What are concrete specific examples (preferably with a reference) that showed Singapore's influence over other countries' policies (even better if it's AI related)?

Singapore generally has a perception of a clean effective government.

I have heard that the Model AI framework by PDPC is not very good.

CSF is working on long term considerations, but I'm unsure of their influence.

Are public institutions here well-regarded?
Are there check-and-balances?
Probably some indexes that measure democracy, corruption, equality, etc.
Are key regulators effectively regulating this space?

FAANG, Huawei, Alibaba, and SenseTime are here.

Alibaba set up a new joint AI research lab with NTU. (https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/alibaba-group-opens-first-joint-research-institute-outside-china-with-ntu-to-study-ai)

"the Intellectual Property Office of Singapore (IPOS) has launched the Accelerated Initiative for Artificial Intelligence (AI2) which is said to be the world’s fastest patent-acceleration programme that grants applicants an AI patent within just 6 months." (https://medium.com/@smuaiclub/everything-you-need-to-know-about-singapores-ai-strategy-dd900f8186d1)

I think there's some nascent tech-related manufacturing industry here. However, I'm uncertain.

Over the next 5 years, Singapore will be investing S$200m to upgrade both supercomputing capability and network speed and quality. This will raise supercomputing resources from 1 petaflop to 15-20 petaflops, to support high-end compute performance needs. Specifically for AI, the enhanced supercomputing platform will support the development and training of new AI algorithms and models. (https://www.smartnation.sg/docs/default-source/default-document-library/national-ai-strategy.pdf)

Singapore is ranked 11, with 4 supercomputers. (https://www.top500.org/statistics/list/)

But it's weird that this 2019 article mentioned that Singapore only has one supercomputer. (https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/technology/singapore-supercomputer-aspire-1-s-200-million-upgrade-11377522)

I think the tech infrastructure in general is pretty stable and comprehensive. I suspect a lot of datacentres in Southeast Asia are based here. Electricity is fine and internet is generally stable and fast.

However, "it is uncertain whether supercomputers can spur AI-related progress" (https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Deciphering_Chinas_AI-Dream.pdf)

How does internet speed, supercomputing, and other tech infrastructure compare with other countries?

2. Data
- "the Infocomm Media Development Authority (IMDA) has recently published the Trusted Data Sharing Framework to guide companies in establishing data-sharing partnerships with each other, pivoting away from the Personal Data Protection Commission’s (PDPC) previous position of discouraging entities from collecting and sharing data. The framework includes the key legal, regulatory, and technical considerations and safeguards to provide greater clarity on the scope and governance for sharing data across public and private sectors." (https://medium.com/@smuaiclub/everything-you-need-to-know-about-singapores-ai-strategy-dd900f8186d1)

Using Jeff Ding's AI Potential Index. (https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Deciphering_Chinas_AI-Dream.pdf)
1. Hardware
- International market share of semiconductor product
- Financing for FPGA chip-makers
2. Data
- Mobile users
3. Research and Algorithms
- Number of AI experts
- Percentage of AAAI Conference Presentations
4. Commercial AI Sector
- Proportion of world’s AI companies
- Total investments in AI companies
- Total global equity funding to AI startups
5. AI Potential Index
- Avg. of the four avg. proxy measures

Are there better ways to measure a country's capability in a field?

Oxford Insight's AI Readiness Index 2019 ranked Singapore 1st. (https://www.oxfordinsights.com/ai-readiness2019)

In 2019, Singapore ranked first in the world based on the impact of our AI scientific publications, according to Elsevier SciVal. But it's not exactly AI safety related. (https://www.smartnation.sg/docs/default-source/default-document-library/national-ai-strategy.pdf)

NTU ranked third too, but again, not sure I don't think it's AI safety related. (https://scse.ntu.edu.sg/NewsnEvents/Pages/News-Detail.aspx?news=065e31ba-12cf-4e5a-92b0-19d9915daf6f)

How valid are the country and university rankings of AI science publications' impact by Elsevier SciVal?

I think private, government, and civil sector has been keen to try out new things. However, there maybe some clamping down some ideas.

A few government organisations are hiring (Smart Nation, National AI Office, GovTech, AI Singapore), but I'm uncertain what's the best route.

Individuals who have been awarded the President’s Scholarship are likely to have access to a dense community of highly influential decision-makers.

What are key entry points to make an infleunce in the Singapore's tech/AI policy, and potentially foreign influence to other nation's tech/AI policy?

What are the career pathways for such individuals?

Singapore is generally quite neutral, and tries to be friends with most nations. It's definitely very pro trade.

Meeting points for countries. One example is the Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual intergovernmental forum on security. Not sure if being a meeting point constitutes as having more influence.

Meeting points for arbitrations.

Most organisations we have identified to be working on AI R&D or implementations are government related organisations. Uncertain if any one of them are aligned.

However, CSER has engaged with CSF and a few security related organisations; Nick Bostrom has engaged with the PMO too.

Which organisations are EA aligned and are working in this space?

Local universities tend to be quite competitive and I've heard that they produce quite a fair number of software engineers and lawyers (potentially for tech policy).

Existing EA SG community does not have many of these talents.

Four of the ten most promising young AI researchers ranked by the Institute of Electricaland Electronics Engineers (IEEE) in 2018 are based in Singapore. I think only one of them is Singaporean. (https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?arnumber=8355886)

Moreover, Xiaohao mentioned that he finds a lot of PhD programmes taken up by foreigners and not Singaporeans.

"The Singapore Government currently works with companies such as Alibaba, Nvidia, Sensetime, and Grab to provide full-time postgraduate students with industry relevant training in preparation for R&D roles in industry. We will establish more of such partnerships to train more AI PhDs with industry experience." (https://www.smartnation.sg/docs/default-source/default-document-library/national-ai-strategy.pdf)

Talent recruitment
Which talent pipelines do you look at?
Where are the best talent pipelines coming from?
What are recruiters's biggest bottlenecks/challenges?
What is your recruitment process like?
Which platforms (online/physical) do you use for your recruitment?
Which has been the most helpful?
My goal is similar to yours, with the added fact that I'm looking for people who take short-term and long-term ethical considerations seriously. I really do think such people will add more value. How can I work with you so we don't duplicate work? (e.g. pipelines, platforms, etc)
Are there enough talents with the right fit?
Is it difficult to find talents?
Are educational institutions producing talents with the right fit?
How difficult is it for foreigners to obtain work visas in Singapore?
Which events (conferences) is best for meeting talent with the right fit?
Which schools/student groups is best for meeting talent with the right fit?

Talent selection
What are easy-to-spot signals whether a talent would be a good fit?
How difficult is it to fill jobs?
How competitive is it for a job seeker?
What are non-obvious things that are no in the JD, that job seekers should know about?
What do job seekers usually get wrong about?
Who is a sucessful applicant?
Who is a "gray area" applicant?

Only EA Singapore for now I think.

Which EA-adjacent organizations and people operate in this country?
What EA organizations and staff operate in this country?

Clean meat / plant based meat / alternative proteins

25B-95B fish farmed every year
210B–530B farmed shrimps and prawns in 2017
- a kilo of farmed shrimp was responsible for almost four times the greenhouse-gas emissions of a kilo of beef (https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/02/08/how-artificial-shrimps-could-change-the-world)
- Most of the world’s shrimp and prawns come from Asia. The continent accounts for 85% of the farmed sort and 74% of the wild catch. (https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/02/08/how-artificial-shrimps-could-change-the-world)
79B chicken farmed in 2018
341M cattle farmed in 2018
2B pigs farmed in 2018

How should we assign "sentience" values on different species?
What externalities would offset the impact from producing alternative proteins?
What are the meat consumption projections like in the next 1, 5, 10, 20 years?

How many jobs are there in bioengineering/biotech/bioprocessing research?
How many jobs are there in alternative protein companies?
How many talents are there in Singapore who fit the JDs?
What is the talent gap like in this industry?
Are there more jobs than job seekers?
Are these jobs only for locals?
What organisations are out there working in this space?
Any upcoming organisations that will enter the space?
Any organisations exiting that space?

Seems to me that there is an increasing number of investors who want to fund alternative protein start-ups.

Under the Government's Research, Innovation and Enterprise (RIE) 2020 plan, $144 million will be allocated to fund projects in the Singapore Food Story R&D Programme, which includes growing meat in labs. (https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/future-food-growing-meat-in-lab-to-help-meet-supply-needs)

Food security is general national priority.

Temasek (a Singaporean sovereign wealth fund) is a major investor in Impossible Foods, Memphis Meats, Califa Farms, and Shiok Meats, which is a local YC backed start-up.

The local food tech space seems vibrant.

Big Idea Ventures's New Protein Fund (https://bigideaventures.com/biv-food-singapore/)

How much is government spending?
How much are academic research institutions spending?
How much is the private sector spending?
How much foreign philanthropic money (Open Phil, etc) is spent here in Singapore?
What is the marginal value of increasing another SG$1m?
How much more funding do local researchers need?

Although there are still a lot more Singaporeans who eat meat, CRF seems pretty good at advocating for more consumer side change. Not so sure about supply side.

A lot of investors are interested in funding clean meat start-ups.

Being vegetarian/vegan is pretty normal here. Many Singaporeans are Buddhists, Hindus, Taoists.

Singapore is very likely to have one of the highest English literacy rates in the world.

CRF seems to be doing well in leading the animal welfare movement in Singapore.

Singaporeans tend to more cosmopolitan and progressive. There are still some hints of conservatism though.

Strong cultural and religious roots from Buddhism, Taoism, and Hinduism.

A lot of conferences on leading technology (especially alternative proteins) are held here instead of other parts of Southeast Asia. These conferences can be a good transimission of ideas and standards.

On the government side, I'm not so certain what regulations will take place for clean meat start-ups.

What are concrete specific examples (preferably with a reference) that showed Singapore's influnece over other countries' policies (even better if it's food related)?

Temasek, a Singapore soverign wealth fund, is a major investor in a bunch of clean meat start-ups, both foreign and local.

Singapore generally has a perception of a clean effective government.

Are public institutions here well-regarded?
Are there check-and-balances?
Probably some indexes that measure democracy, corruption, equality, etc.
Are key regulators effectively regulating this space?

A*STAR, Asia Research and Engagement, Shiok Meats

Which existing key institutions in Singapore have been invaluable to the alternative protein space?
What gaps are there that needs to be filled?

Global sales [for non-clean shrimps] were around $45bn in 2018 and are thought to be growing by about 5% a year. (https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/02/08/how-artificial-shrimps-could-change-the-world)

Not cost competitive now - lab grown shrimp costs US$5000 a kilo now. (https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/02/08/how-artificial-shrimps-could-change-the-world)

What is the market size for the alternative protein space?
How do analyst breakdown this market?
What is the market share like?
Who are the biggest competitors?
What are market projections for alternative protein products?

What about Singapore?

Who are the key players in the alternative protein supply chain?
Are these suppliers local or foreign?
Are there comparative advantages for certain parts of the supply chain to be done in Singapore?
What are key "ingredients" for alternative protein?

Besides electricity, roads, internet (basic infrastructure), what other infrastructure is key to the alternative protein space?

Is there a framework for assessing a country's clean meat capabilities?
If there isn't, what are they? (predictions: number of clean meat researchers, total investments)

I'm not so sure whether clean meat technology is publically available. My assumption is that a lot of the R&D are taking place in private companies, with the exception of A*STAR.

How likely is clean meat technology transferred to other countries?

Shiok Meat is testing it out now. Beyond Meat and Impossible Burgers have been testing the Singapore market for some time now.

Either private or government, with the orgs I've listed down.

What are key entry points to make an infleunce in the Singapore's alternative protein industry?

What are the career pathways for such individuals?

I think the only thing the clean meat industry is affected by is the US-China trade war.

I'm not so sure if the organisation's I have listed are effective.

Which organisations are EA aligned and are effectively working in this space?

There seems to be significant number of volunteers who are concerned about animal welfare in Singapore, especially under Centre for Responsible Future (CRF). I'm not so sure about whether they want to dedicate their career in this space.

Government sector - employees in Temasek, A*STAR, Singapore Food Agency

Private sector - Shiok Meat, Asia Research and Engagement

Talent recruitment
Which talent pipelines do you look at?
Where are the best talent pipelines coming from?
What are recruiters's biggest bottlenecks/challenges?
What is your recruitment process like?
Which platforms (online/physical) do you use for your recruitment?
Which has been the most helpful?
My goal is similar to yours, with the added fact that I'm looking for people who take short-term and long-term ethical considerations seriously. I really do think such people will add more value. How can I work with you so we don't duplicate work? (e.g. pipelines, platforms, etc)
Are there enough talents with the right fit?
Is it difficult to find talents?
Are educational institutions producing talents with the right fit?
How difficult is it for foreigners to obtain work visas in Singapore?
Which events (conferences) is best for meeting talent with the right fit?
Which schools/student groups is best for meeting talent with the right fit?

Talent selection
What are easy-to-spot signals whether a talent would be a good fit?
How difficult is it to fill jobs?
How competitive is it for a job seeker?
What are non-obvious things that are no in the JD, that job seekers should know about?
What do job seekers usually get wrong about?
Who is a sucessful applicant?
Who is a "gray area" applicant?

EA Singapore, GFI, GFP, potentially MFA.

Which EA-adjacent organizations and people operate in this country?
What EA organizations and staff operate in this country?

Government has been coordinating with the US and ASEAN on biosecurity issues since 2014 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6478199/)

What are concrete specific examples (preferably with a reference) that showed Singapore's influence over other countries' policies (even better if it's biosecurity related)?

The Singapore government has been proactively funding synthetic biology basic research since 2016 and regulating this industry since 2005 (page 297, https://sci-hub.se/10.1007/978-3-030-27264-7#).

The government is also generally open to long term considerations, and has engaged with CSER and Nick Bostrom on a few occasions.

Are the laws passed well-regarded? Are there weaknesses to address?
Are the enforcment agencies, regulatory bodies, advisory commitees well regarded? Are there weaknesses to address?

Is there a report card like this for Singapore? (http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/cbn/2011/cbnreport_11042011.html)
TAPIC? But looks limited (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168851017301999)

Great power conflicts

Information and operations security

Earning-to-give in finance and tech

Lack of Founders Pledge type organisations here.

EA community building