Potential Impact
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Institution
Homeostatic Mechanism
Number of people affectedProbability of impactExpected ValueComments
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Cultures/ReligionsPhysical forces1.20E+180.00E+000.00E+00Assumes peak population of 9B, and steady state thereafter, no extraplanetary colonization, and that the Sun will stay in its stable phase for another 4B years. I see no concievable way that I can affect the tectonic plates, asteroids, etc, so the probability is 0%.
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Clash of cultures4.00E+115.17E-172.07E-05Assumes three major religions, 9 billion people, and a life of a religion of 2000 years. The probabiliy of impact is calculated as that of a founder and the number of people in that religion since then. The probability that I would possess the required charisma/belief I set at 1 in a million. I admit, this is probably too high
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Internecine conflict2.00E+111.15E-182.30E-07Assumes three major religions, 9 billion people, and a life of a religion of 2000 years. The probabiliy of impact is calculated as that of a pope/major leader each 30 year generation, and the probability that I would be that person, just out of random chance (i.e. 1 in a billion right now)
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