Potential Impact

	B	C	D	E	F	G
1
2	Institution	Homeostatic Mechanism	Number of people affected	Probability of impact	Expected Value	Comments
3	Cultures/Religions	Physical forces	1.20E+18	0.00E+00	0.00E+00	Assumes peak population of 9B, and steady state thereafter, no extraplanetary colonization, and that the Sun will stay in its stable phase for another 4B years. I see no concievable way that I can affect the tectonic plates, asteroids, etc, so the probability is 0%.
4		Clash of cultures	4.00E+11	5.17E-17	2.07E-05	Assumes three major religions, 9 billion people, and a life of a religion of 2000 years. The probabiliy of impact is calculated as that of a founder and the number of people in that religion since then. The probability that I would possess the required charisma/belief I set at 1 in a million. I admit, this is probably too high
5		Internecine conflict	2.00E+11	1.15E-18	2.30E-07	Assumes three major religions, 9 billion people, and a life of a religion of 2000 years. The probabiliy of impact is calculated as that of a pope/major leader each 30 year generation, and the probability that I would be that person, just out of random chance (i.e. 1 in a billion right now)
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100