GiveWell analysis of SCI's cost per treatment [2018]
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ValueSourceNotes
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Drug costs
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Total spending on tablets between April 2011 and March 2014, GBP£10,135,290
Crown Agents Total ICOSA Procurement Spend (updated 2014)
Unpublished source. The units in the source file are not labelled. We have assumed the figures are in GBP.
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Total number of tablets procured and delivered by March 2014127,191,000SCI ICOSA Mid-Year Report 2014, Pg 12 (Table 3).
This includes a large number of tablets held in reserve and not yet delivered as of March 2014.
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Drug cost per tablet£0.08GiveWell calculation
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Wastage assumption10%GiveWell judgment
This is the percentage of drugs we assume are wasted. We do not have data on actual wastage so are intuitively hypothesizing what seems reasonable. We note that a similar assumption was discussed in an paper we found (Utroska et al. 1989: http://files.givewell.org/files/DWDA%202009/SCI/Utroska%20et%20al.%201989.pdf), though this is quite dated and we do not know how the authors arrived at 10%.
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Drug costs per tablet, accounting for wastage, GBP£0.09GiveWell calculation
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Average number of tablets per treatment2.5SCI ICOSA Mid-Year Report 2014, Pg 12.
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Drug costs per treatment, accounting for wastage, GBP£0.22GiveWell calculation
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USD per GBP, April 2011 - March 20141.59GiveWell calculation
For simplicity, taking the simple average of monthly GBP/USD rate from April 2011 to March 2014 (the period over which the drugs were purchased)
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Drug costs per treament, accounting for wastage, USD$0.35GiveWell calculation
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Drug costs per treatment, accounting for wastage, inflated to Apr15-Mar18 USD$0.37GiveWell calculation
To inflate drug costs measured in Apr11-Mar14 USD to Apr15-Mar18 USD, we multiply by the ratio of the average consumer price index in Apr15-Mar18 to the average consumer price index Apr11-Mar14
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Government costs
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Government's share of total treatment costs30%
https://www.givewell.org/charities/Schistosomiasis-Control-Initiative#Shortcomings_of_our_analysis
We use a uniform percentage of total costs to estimate the share of the costs that the government incurs. See the linked source in the previous cell for details about this estimate.
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SCI's costs (excluding research), FY6-FY8 (April 2015 - March 2018)
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Country expenditures, all programs included in cost per treatment analysis, FY6 (2015/16)
£5,898,959
GiveWell calculation. See "GW 2015-16 costs and treatments" sheet
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Total central expenditures FY6 (2015/16)£1,284,719"SCI 2015-16 BVA" sheet, cell L6
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% of country expenditures on all programs included cost per treatment analysis, FY6 (2015/16)
94%GiveWell calculation
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Central expenditures for countries included in cost per treatment analysis, FY6 (2015/16)
£1,212,257GiveWell calculation
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SCI's spending included in the cost per treatment analysis, excluding drugs, FY 6 (2015/16)
£7,111,216GiveWell calculation
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Country expenditures, all programs included in cost per treatment analysis, FY7 (2016/17)
£5,629,171"GW SCI 2016-17 BVA" sheet
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Total central expenditures FY7 (2016/17)£1,894,660
GiveWell's analysis of SCI budget vs. actuals 2016-17 Redacted, "Summary" sheet
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% of country expenditures on all programs included cost per treatment analysis, FY7 (2016/17)
100%GiveWell calculation
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Central expenditures for countries included in cost per treatment analysis, FY7 (2016/17)
£1,889,929GiveWell calculation
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SCI's spending included in the cost per treatment analysis, excluding drugs, FY 7 (2016/17)
£7,519,100GiveWell calculation
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Country expenditures, all programs included in cost per treatment analysis, FY8 (2017/18)
£6,932,830
"GW SCI 2017-18 BVA (Implementation + Rolled over)" sheet
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Total central expenditures FY8 (2017/18)£2,498,263"GW SCI 2017-18 BVA (Overall)" sheet
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% of country expenditures on all programs included cost per treatment analysis, FY8 (2017/18)
72%GiveWell calculation
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Central expenditures for countries included in cost per treatment analysis, FY8 (2017/18)
£1,790,844GiveWell calculation
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SCI's spending included in the cost per treatment analysis, excluding drugs, FY 8 (2017/18)
£8,723,673GiveWell calculation
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SCI's spending, excluding drugs, FY6-8£23,353,989GiveWell calculation
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Portion of SCI's costs paid by Imperial College10%
GiveWell's non-verbatim summary of a conversation with Wendy Harrison and Najwa Al Abdallah on September 8, 2015
This is a rough estimate, informed by the source linked in the previous cell. Imperial College supports SCI, for example, covering some legal and administrative expenses. These are not included in SCI's reported spending. SCI told us that 6% of its DFID grant was allocated to this but that it received more than that covered, so 10% seemed like a plausible estimate.
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SCI's total costs, excluding drugs, GBP£25,948,877GiveWell calculation
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SCI's total costs, excluding drugs, USD$35,699,723GiveWell calculation
We convert SCI's spending in each FY into dollars using the average GBP/USD monthly currency conversion rate within that year. We sum these amounts and make the adjustment for the portion of SCI's costs paid by Imperial College.
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Research costs
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Research costs, FY6£35,403GiveWell calculation
Assume research spending in FY6 is the mean of research spending in FYs 7 and 8
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Research costs, FY7£55,758http://givewell.org/files/DWDA%202009/SCI/SCI_Budget_vs_Actuals_April_2016-March_2017_Redacted.xlsx
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Research costs, FY8£15,048"GW SCI 2017-18 BVA (Overall)" sheet
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SCI's total research costs, GBP£106,209GiveWell calculation
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SCI's total research costs, USD$146,263GiveWell calculation
We convert SCI's spending in each FY into dollars using the average GBP/USD monthly currency conversion rate within that year, and then take the sum across years.
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Treatments delivered
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Schistosomiasis treatments included in cost per treatment analysis, FY6 (2015-16)29,674,099See cell formula
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Schistosomiasis treatments included in cost per treatment analysis, FY7 (2016-17)44,643,801See cell formula
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Schistosomiasis treatments included in cost per treatment analysis, FY8 (2017-18)40,977,164See cell formula
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Adjustment rate for reported treatments0.95GiveWell summary of SCI coverage surveys
Sheet "Results," cell L29
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Adjusted # of schistosomiasis treatments, FY6-8109,530,310GiveWell calculation
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Cost per treatment estimates
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Total cost per treatment (excluding research costs)$0.99GiveWell calculation
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Cost per treatment, excluding drugs, including government costs$0.47GiveWell calculation
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Cost per treatment, including drugs, excluding government costs$0.70GiveWell calculation
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Cost per treatment, excluding drugs and government costs$0.33GiveWell calculation
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Total cost per treatment (including research costs)$1.00GiveWell calculation
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Cost per treatment, excluding drugs, including government costs, including research costs
$0.47GiveWell calculation
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Cost per treatment, including drugs, excluding government costs, including research costs
$0.70GiveWell calculation
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Cost per treatment, excluding drugs and government costs, including research costs$0.33GiveWell calculation
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Cost breakdown:
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SCI's total cost per treatment (including research costs)$0.33GiveWell calculation
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Total cost of drugs per treatment$0.37GiveWell calculation
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Total government costs per treatment$0.30GiveWell calculation
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