Carbon Brief survey_IPCC scientists on most influential climate change papers
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FirstnameSurnameNo. of submissionsCountry
IPCC Working Group
Nominated author
Date of publication
Paper titleJournal of publicationLinkReason given
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1AndyChallinor1/4UK2Hansen, J., Sato, M. & Ruedy, R.2012(Public) perception of climate change (and the new climate dice)Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.http://www.pnas.org/content/109/37/E2415.short
Quantitative analysis of the shifting PDF of climate, which helped with demonstrating the strong links between extreme events this century and climate change. Result: more clarity and less hedging.http
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AndyChallinor2/4UK2Joshi, M. et al.2011Projections of when temperature change will exceed 2 °C above pre-industrial levelsNature Climate Changehttp://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v1/n8/full/nclimate1261.html
Highlights the importance of, and our ability to, provide climate change projections in a far more useful format - focussing on when something happens, rather than on what might happen at a given time
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AndyChallinor3/4UK2Challinor, A. et al.2014A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptationNature Climate Changehttp://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2153
Shows that even below two degrees local warming, food production in temperate regions is not safe
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AndyChallinor4/4UK2Vermuelen, S. et al.2013Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agricultureProc. Natl. Acad. Sci.http://www.pnas.org/content/110/21/8357.full
Uncertainty need not hold up adaptation. This paper demonstrates the importance of both capacity/vulnerability/resilience -based approaches to adaptation, and the quantitative model analyses, and argues that it is important to try to use both where possible. Result: points towards how adaptation research could better be conducted in the future
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2AndrewSolow1/3US2Callendar, G.S.1938The artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on temperatureQuart. J. Royal Met. Sochttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.49706427503/abstract
In most areas, scientific progress builds on earlier work; probably the earliest scientific paper on this topic; there is earlier work on the greenhouse effect, but not (to my knowledge) on the connection between increasing levels of CO2 and temperature
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AndrewSolow2/3US2Phillips, N.1956The general circulation of the atmosphere: A numerical experimentQuart. J. Royal Met. Sochttp://www.phy.pku.edu.cn/climate/class/cm2010/Phillips_QJRMS_1956.pdf
In most areas, scientific progress builds on earlier work; the birth of climate modeling
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AndrewSolow3/3US2Keeling, C.1960The Concentration and Isotopic Abundances of Carbon Dioxide in the AtmosphereTellushttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1960.tb01300.x/abstract
In most areas, scientific progress builds on earlier work; the famous Keeling curve
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3AndersLeverman1/4Germany1Meinhausen, M.2009Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °CNaturehttp://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v458/n7242/abs/nature08017.html
This is a very personal choice. I only picked papers from climate-change physics
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AndersLeverman2/4Germany1Ganopolski, A. & Rahmstorf, S.2001Rapid changes of glacial climate simulated in a coupled climate modelNaturehttp://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v409/n6817/abs/409153A0.html
This is a very personal choice. I only picked papers from climate-change physics
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AndersLeverman3/4Germany1Leverman, A. et al.2013The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warmingProc. Natl. Acad. Sci.http://www.pnas.org/content/110/34/13745.short
This is a very personal choice. I only picked papers from climate-change physics. This one is rather new and not cited that much, but it was twittered by US President Obama and perhaps will have some future impact
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AndersLeverman4/4Germany1Edenhofer, O. et al.2006
Induced Technological Change: Exploring its Implications for the Economics of Atmospheric Stabilization: Synthesis Report from the Innovation Modeling Comparison Project
The Energy Journalhttp://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/23297057?uid=3738032&uid=2&uid=4&sid=21106662929693
There was also the economic model intercomparison led by Ottmar Edenhofer prior to the IPCC AR4 which influenced the IPCC-AR4 and the Stern report in showing that mitigation costs are small if the learning curves of energy technologies are dynamically modelled and not fixed. That was very very important, but not physics, so I have not included it.
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4PiersForster1/3UK1Keeling, C. 1960The Concentration and Isotopic Abundances of Carbon Dioxide in the AtmosphereTellushttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1960.tb01300.x/abstract
Keeling made first accurate measurements of background CO2 - and after only two years found upwards trend (see Figure 2). Fought hard to get measurements funded. Idea was built on ocean measurements of CO2uptake by Revelle and Suess (1957), but inspired idea to realise significance of them. Measurement series became known as the Keeling curve, the smoking gun of climate science
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PiersForster2/3UK1Manabe, S. & Wetherald, R. T.1967Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution of Relative HumidityJournal of the Atmospheric Scienceshttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0469%281967%29024%3C0241%3ATEOTAW%3E2.0.CO%3B2
This was really the first physically sound climate model allowing accurate predictions of climate change. Its results have stood the test of time amazingly well, its results are still valid today. Often when I’ve think I’ve done a new bit of work, I found that it had already been included in this paper.
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PiersForster3/3UK1Hansen, J. et al.1981Climate impact of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxideSciencehttp://www.sciencemag.org/content/213/4511/957
Figure 5 of this paper, was really convinced people that human activity was warming climate. This wast he work that put Hansen on the path to lobby the US congress in 1988 and the beginnings of IPCC etc. This has been argued to be the first “”Attribution" of historical change to human activity.
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PiersForster4/3UK1Callendar, G.S.1938The artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on temperatureQuart. J. Royal Met. Sochttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.49706427503/abstract
As all my papers are by US authors I would loved to have chosen Callendar (1938) as the first attribution paper that changed the world. Unfortunately the 1938 effort of Callendar was only really recognised afterwards as being a founding publication of the field. Therefore my nod on influence really has to go to the trio of US papers to put climate science where it is today. The same comment applies to earlier Arrhenius and Tyndell efforts. They were only influential in hindsight
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5GovindasamyBala1/4India1Bala, G. et al.2007Combined climate and carbon cycle effects of global deforestationProc. Natl. Acad. Sci.http://www.pnas.org/content/104/16/6550.abstract
For the first time, the above paper made a holistic assessment of the deforestation/afforestation problem. It put the non-carbon effects (such as reflectivity and plant transpiration changes) of land cover change on the same footing as carbon sequestration.
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GovindasamyBala2/4India1Bala, G., Duffy, P. B. & Taylor, K. E.2008Impact of geoengineering schemes on the global hydrological cycleProc. Natl. Acad. Sci.http://www.pnas.org/content/105/22/7664.abstract
For the first time, the above paper showed that geoengineering could slow down the global water cycle. It used fundamental physical concepts to explain the weakening of the hydrological cycle.
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GovindasamyBala3/4India1Caldeira, K. & Wickett, M. E.2003Anthropogenic carbon and ocean pHNaturehttp://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v425/n6956/full/425365a.html
The above paper, for the first time, modeled the long term effects of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on ocean acidification. It raised the awareness on this "other CO2 problem"
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GovindasamyBala4/4India1Govindasamy, B. & Caldeira, K.2000Geoengineering earth's radiation balance to mitigate CO2-induced climate changeGeophysical Research Lettershttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/1999GL006086/abstract
The above paper was the first climate modeling paper on geoengineering which tested the viability of geoengineering methods that are proposed to combat climate change
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6MarcLevy1/3US2Broecker, W. S.1975Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced global warmingSciencehttp://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/files/2009/10/broeckerglobalwarming75.pdf
First to connect the dots and realize imminent warming was in the cards
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MarcLevy2/3US2Ramanathan, V. et al.1985Trace gas trends and their potential role in climate changeJournal of Geophysical Research: Atmosphereshttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/JD090iD03p05547/abstract;jsessionid=EEF3CC40EBCA9B6DA2B00096914BBBDD.f01t01
first to show that if you bring all the other GHG gases into the picture the warming threat is much more potent.
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MarcLevy3/3US2Hansen, J., Sato, M. & Ruedy, R.2012(Public) perception of climate change (and the new climate dice)Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.http://www.pnas.org/content/109/37/E2415.short
This is a tougher call -- others have been involved in demonstrating this. The importance is in showing that climate change is observable in the present.
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7VolodymyrDemkine1/2Ukraine/UNEP3Shindell, D. et al.2012Simultaneously Mitigating Near-Term Climate Change and Improving Human Health and Food SecuritySciencehttp://www.sciencemag.org/content/335/6065/183
Assuming that the recent papers are only meant I would include in the list the following publications: Reasons: -Academic impact: 346 citations so far -Political impacts: 1) Provided scientific impetus for establishing and strengthening the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (http://www.ccacoalition.org/). This is an action oriented global initiative which now includes 40+ Governments and about 60 intergovernmental and non-governmental partners 2) G8 recognized the importance of short-lived climate pollutants for the global climate and human development (https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/05/19/camp-david-declaration).
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VolodymyrDemkine1/2Ukraine/UNEP3Bond, T. C. et al.2012Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessmentJournal of Geophysical Research: Atmosphereshttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.50171/abstract
-Academic impact: 611 citations so far -Political impacts: Governments further address short-lived climate pollutants in their climate mitigation and air quality strategies
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8MostafaJafari1/1Iran3Smith, P. et al.2013How much land-based greenhouse gas mitigation can be achieved without compromising food security and environmental goals?Global Change Biologyhttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12160/abstractNone
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9WilliamCollins1/3UK1Cox, P. et al.2000Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate modelNaturehttp://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v408/n6809/full/408184a0.html
This introduced the so-called Amazon Dieback. This was influential in that it caused a shift in thinking, from considering the the climate as a physics problem, to realising that the natural world can play a significant role in affecting climate sensitivity.
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WilliamCollins2/3UK1Hansen, J. et al.1988Global climate changes as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies three-dimensional modelJournal of Geophysical Research: Atmosphereshttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/JD093iD08p09341/abstract
has obviously been influential, shown by the fact that Climate Sceptics like to criticise it
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WilliamCollins3/3UK1Tyndall, J.1861On the Absorption and Radiation of Heat by Gases and Vapours, and on the Physical Connexion of Radiation, Absorption, and ConductionPhil. Trans. R. Soc. Londhttp://rstl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/151/1.full.pdf+html
On a historical note, John Tyndall in Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. (1861) started the whole subject
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10JonathanWiener1/7US3Arrhenius, S.1896On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the groundPhilosophical Magazinehttp://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14786449608620846#.VUja8dpVhBc
Viewed in historical perspective, i.e. looking back from the future, say in 2050, which publications will be remembered as “most influential” in climate policy: the classic paper showing that rising GHG concentrations lead to increasing global average surface temperature
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JonathanWiener2/7US3IPCC (Various)1990IPCC 1st Assessment ReportIPCC
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/1992%20IPCC%20Supplement/IPCC_1990_and_1992_Assessments/English/ipcc_90_92_assessments_far_overview.pdf
Viewed in historical perspective, i.e. looking back from the future, say in 2050, which publications will be remembered as “most influential” in climate policy: the first global report on climate change dangers and response measures. Really one should jointly nominate all 5 of the IPCC Assessment Reports together (1990, 1995, 2001, 2007, 2014).
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JonathanWiener3/7US3Schneider, S.2002Can we Estimate the Likelihood of Climatic Changes at 2100?Climatic Changehttp://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A%3A1014276210717
And perhaps a few more, less publicly known but very influential in the policy regime process
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JonathanWiener4/7US3Schneider, S.2009The worst-case scenarioNaturehttp://www.nature.com/search?journal=nature&order=relevance&q=%22The%20worst%20case%20scenario%22
And perhaps a few more, less publicly known but very influential in the policy regime process. These may not be the most cited, but in future historical perspective I suggest that they will have had the most influence on actual policy decisions.
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JonathanWiener5/7US3Stewart, R.B. & Weiner. J.B.1992The Comprehensive Approach to Climate Policy: Issues of design and practicalityArizona Journal of International and Comparative Lawhttp://scholarship.law.duke.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1523&context=faculty_scholarship
advocated key elements that were then adopted in the international regime: 1) covering multiple GHGs and sinks, rather than only CO2 from energy sources; (2) using international emissions trading both to reduce abatement costs and to engage the participation of major emitting countries; and (3) engaging the USA, China, India, and other major emitters which were not limited by the Kyoto Protocol in a new parallel or post-Kyoto regime (then actually pursued through the Major Economies Forum, the US-China announcements in Nov. 2009 and Nov. 2014, and the moves in the COPs at Copenhagen, Cancun, Durban and Paris to overcome the Annex I/non-Annex I divide through a new accord engaging all countries)
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JonathanWiener6/7US3Keith, D. W, Parson, E. & Morgan, M.G.2010Research on global sun block needed nowNaturehttp://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v463/n7280/full/463426a.html
And perhaps a few more, less publicly known but very influential in the policy regime process. These may not be the most cited, but in future historical perspective I suggest that they will have had the most influence on actual policy decisions.
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JonathanWiener7/7US3Barrett, S.2008The Incredible Economics of GeoengineeringEnvtl. Resource Economicshttp://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10640-007-9174-8
And perhaps a few more, less publicly known but very influential in the policy regime process. These may not be the most cited, but in future historical perspective I suggest that they will have had the most influence on actual policy decisions.
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11AlexHall1/3US1Manabe, S. & Wetherald, R. T.1967Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution of Relative HumidityJournal of the Atmospheric Scienceshttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0469%281967%29024%3C0241%3ATEOTAW%3E2.0.CO%3B2
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AlexHall2/3US1Manabe, S. & Stouffer, R.J.1980Sensitivity of a global climate model to an increase of CO2concentration in the atmosphereJournal of Geophysical Researchhttp://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/sm8001.pdf
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AlexHall3/3US1Held, I.M. & Soden, B.J.2006Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global WarmingJournal of Climatehttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI3990.1
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12KevinTrenberth1/3US1Lorenz, E.N1963Deterministic nonperiodic flowJournal of the Atmospheric Scienceshttp://eaps4.mit.edu/research/Lorenz/Deterministic_63.pdf
Ed Lorenz paper when he discovered chaos
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KevinTrenberth2/3US1Phillips, N.1956The general circulation of the atmosphere: A numerical experimentQuart. J. Royal Met. Sochttp://www.phy.pku.edu.cn/climate/class/cm2010/Phillips_QJRMS_1956.pdf
Norm Phillips paper in Quart J Roy Met Soc in 1956 which was the first general circulation model
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KevinTrenberth3/3US1Manabe, S. & Wetherald, R. T.1967Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution of Relative HumidityJournal of the Atmospheric Scienceshttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0469%281967%29024%3C0241%3ATEOTAW%3E2.0.CO%3B2
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13WalterVergara1/1Colombia / IDB2IPCC (Various)2014IPCC 5th Assessment ReportIPCChttp://www.ipcc.ch/
Most up to date account of the science and the implications at a global scale
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14DavidStern1/3Australia3Keeling, C.D et al.1976Atmospheric carbon dioxide variations at Mauna Loa observatoryTellushttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1976.tb00701.x/abstract
This is a really tough question as there are so many dimensions to the climate problem – natural science, social science, policy etc. So here are three
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DavidStern2/3Australia3Holtz-Eakin, D. & Selden, T.M1995Stoking the fires? CO2 emissions and economic growthJournal of Public Economicshttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/004727279401449X
This is a really tough question as there are so many dimensions to the climate problem – natural science, social science, policy etc. So here are three
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DavidStern3/3Australia3Nordhaus, W.D1991To slow or not to slow: The economics of the greenhouse effectThe Economic Journalhttp://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/2233864?uid=3738032&uid=2&uid=4&sid=21106313720851
This is a really tough question as there are so many dimensions to the climate problem – natural science, social science, policy etc. So here are three
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15RobertoSchaeffer1/3Brazil3Rojelj, J. et al.2013Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigationNaturehttp://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v493/n7430/full/nature11787.html
Of course there is a lot of subjectivity when picking the "most influential papers in the field of climate change". But in any case, I chose three year, which have been very useful for my students: In this paper, authors generate distributions of the costs of mitigation associated with limiting transient global temperature increase below specific values, and by doing that they, somehow, "bridge the gap" between the integrated assessment community and the climate modelling community.
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RobertoSchaeffer2/3Brazil3Rojelj, J. et al.20122020 emissions levels required to limit warming to below 2 CNature Climate Changehttp://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n4/full/nclimate1758.html
Of course there is a lot of subjectivity when picking the "most influential papers in the field of climate change". But in any case, I chose three year, which have been very useful for my students: In this paper, authors present a systematic scenario analysis, which has been key for the climate change negotiations that are taking place in 2015.
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RobertoSchaeffer3/3Brazil3McGlade, C. & Ekins, P.2015The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2 CNaturehttp://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v517/n7533/full/nature14016.html
Of course there is a lot of subjectivity when picking the "most influential papers in the field of climate change". But in any case, I chose three year, which have been very useful for my students: In this paper, authors discuss the implication of a "2 C scenario" for the geographical exploration of fossil fuel reserves, which may have significant implications for some developing countries´ economies.
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16NeilAdger1/3UK2Rosenweig, C. et al.2008Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate changeNaturehttp://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v453/n7193/abs/nature06937.html
Amazing effort at metas-analysis. Climate change impacts already among us
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NeilAdger2/3UK2Allen, M.R. et al.2009Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonneNaturehttp://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v458/n7242/full/nature08019.html
Frames and quantifies the challenge.
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NeilAdger3/3UK2O'Brien, K.L. & Leichenko, R.M.2000Double exposure: assessing the impacts of climate change within the context of economic globalizationGlobal Envionmental Changehttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378000000212
Climate change is not the only societal challenge and interacts with others
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17SteveSherwood1/3Australia1Manabe, S. & Wetherald, R. T.1967Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution of Relative HumidityJournal of the Atmospheric Scienceshttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0469%281967%29024%3C0241%3ATEOTAW%3E2.0.CO%3B2
A tough one! I have chosen to interpret the question in terms of influence on other scientists within the field (rather than influence on the public or policymakers which would yield a completely different list): first proper computation of global warming and stratospheric cooling from enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations, including atmospheric emission and water-vapour feedback
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SteveSherwood2/3Australia1Twomey, S.1977The influence of pollution on the shortwave albedo of cloudsJournal of the Atmospheric Scienceshttp://www.atmos.washington.edu/2008Q2/591A/Articles/twomey_i1520-0469-34-7-1149.pdf
A tough one! I have chosen to interpret the question in terms of influence on other scientists within the field (rather than influence on the public or policymakers which would yield a completely different list): proposed what is now called the “Twomey effect” or tendency of atmospheric air pollutants to increase the reflectivity of clouds. This remains the most important unquantified human influence on climate
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SteveSherwood3/3Australia1Held, I.M. & Soden, B.J.2006Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global WarmingJournal of Climatehttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI3990.1
A tough one! I have chosen to interpret the question in terms of influence on other scientists within the field (rather than influence on the public or policymakers which would yield a completely different list): advanced what is known as the “wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier” paradigm for precipitation in global warming. This mantra has been widely misunderstood and misapplied, but was the first and perhaps still the only systematic conclusion about regional precipitation and global warming based on robust physical understanding of the atmosphere
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18JeanJouzel1/2France1Petit, J.R. et al.1999Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, AntarcticaNaturehttp://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v399/n6735/abs/399429a0.html
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JeanJouzel1/2France1IPCC (Various)2014IPCC 5th Assessment Report IPCChttp://www.ipcc.ch/
For WGI and WG2 (difficult to mention a specific paper)
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19JakeRice1/3Canada3IPCC (Various)2013IPCC 5th Assessment Report WG1IPCChttp://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/img/wg1cover.png
But in terms of science that has potential to INFLUENCY policy the three “papers” are the three volumes of the 5th Assessment report. Nothing else comes close as a starting point for serious policy negotiations among countries which come to the negotiations with very different views and goals but cannot be allowed ot have very different facts as well. Tha tis why the IPCC Assessment Reports have to best chance of being accepted nearly universally as the source of factual information on which to build negotiaitons.
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JakeRice2/3Canada3IPCC (Various)2014IPCC 5th Assessment Report WG2IPCChttp://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/img/wg2cover.png
But in terms of science that has potential to INFLUENCY policy the three “papers” are the three volumes of the 5th Assessment report. Nothing else comes close as a starting point for serious policy negotiations among countries which come to the negotiations with very different views and goals but cannot be allowed ot have very different facts as well. Tha tis why the IPCC Assessment Reports have to best chance of being accepted nearly universally as the source of factual information on which to build negotiaitons.
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JakeRice3/3Canada3IPCC (Various)2014IPCC 5th Assessment Report WG3IPCChttp://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg3/img/wg3cover.png
But in terms of science that has potential to INFLUENCY policy the three “papers” are the three volumes of the 5th Assessment report. Nothing else comes close as a starting point for serious policy negotiations among countries which come to the negotiations with very different views and goals but cannot be allowed ot have very different facts as well. Tha tis why the IPCC Assessment Reports have to best chance of being accepted nearly universally as the source of factual information on which to build negotiaitons.
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20DannyHarvey1/3Canada3Hays, J.D., Imbrie, J. & Shackleton, N.J.1976Variations in the Earth’s orbitSciencehttp://www.sciencemag.org/content/194/4270/1121
This paper definitively established orbital variations as the driving factor of glacial-interglacial climate oscillations over the past 800,000 years. It came out at a time when computer models were indicating that the climate would respond significantly to projected increases in CO2 concentration, and showed that subtle variations in the Earth's radiative energy balance can have big effects on climate. I myself had first heard about the "global warming" problem in 1978, and the Hays et al paper was a big part of what convinced me that this problem was real.
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DannyHarvey2/3Canada3Callendar, G.S.1941Infra-red absorption by carbon dioxide, with special reference to atmospheric radiationQuart. J. Royal Met. Sochttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.49706729105/abstract
It was not clear until then that increasing CO2, once spectral overlap with other greenhouse gases is taken into account, really did have a large effect in trapping infrared radiation (that CO2 absorbs IR radiation was not in doubt at that time).
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DannyHarvey3/3Canada3Manabe, S. & Wetherald, R. T.1967Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution of Relative HumidityJournal of the Atmospheric Scienceshttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0469%281967%29024%3C0241%3ATEOTAW%3E2.0.CO%3B2
the first to assess the magnitude of the water vapour feedback, and was frequently cited for a good 20 years after it was published:
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21WenjieDong1/3China1Wei, T. et al2012Developed and developing world responsibilities for historical climate change and CO2 mitigation.Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.http://www.pnas.org/content/109/32/12911.abstract
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WenjieDong2/3China1Dong, W. et al.2014China-Russia gas deal for a cleaner ChinaNature Climate Changehttp://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n11/full/nclimate2382.html
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WenjieDong3/3China1Jones, P.D. & Mann, M.E.2004Climate over past millenniaReviews of Geophysicshttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2003RG000143/abstract
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22JohnBalbus1/3US2Haines, A. et al.2009Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions: overview and implications for policy makersThe Lancethttp://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2809%2961759-1/abstract
The Summary from the 2009 Lancet series on health co-benefits of climate change mitigation. This series was a pivotal event in focusing the public health community on not just the adverse health impacts associated with climate change, but the significant and immediate health benefits that accrue from taking actions in sectors like energy, transportation and agriculture to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.
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JohnBalbus2/3US2West, J.J. et al.2013Co-benefits of Global Greenhouse Gas Mitigation for Future Air Quality and Human HealthNaturehttp://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n10/full/nclimate2009.html
This is the most up to date and sophisticated assessment of health co-benefits from air pollution reductions associated with greenhouse gas mitigation measures. It takes into account expected improvements in air pollution exposure associated with increasing global regulations and demonstrates a significant added benefit of millions of deaths averted per year from moderately strenuous greenhouse gas mitigation efforts.
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JohnBalbus3/3US2Sherwood, S.C. & Huber, M.2010An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stressProc. Natl. Acad. Sci.http://www.pnas.org/content/107/21/9552.abstract
There are many important papers on the health impacts of climate change, but if I had to pick a single paper, I would choose this one, which raises the prospect of future conditions in many parts of the world in the not too distant future with current trends in greenhouse gases in which outdoor environments would not be survivable for more than minutes to hours without special adaptation measures. The implications for health and economies are enormous.
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23Joseph KatongoKanyanga1/3Zambia1IPCC (Various)2013IPCC 5th Assessment Report WG1IPCChttp://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/img/wg1cover.pngAt global level
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Joseph KatongoKanyanga2/3Zambia1
International Food Policy Research Institute
2013Southern African Agriculture and Climate Change: A Comprehensive AnalysisInternational Food Policy Research Institutehttp://www.ifpri.org/publication/southern-african-agriculture-and-climate-change-0
At regional level
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Joseph KatongoKanyanga3/3Zambia1Venäläinen, A. et al.2015Analysis of the meteorological capacity for early warnings in Malawi and ZambiaClimate and Developmenthttp://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17565529.2015.1034229#.VVthk1VVhBc
At national level
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24DennisHartmann1/3US1Manabe, S. & Wetherald, R. T.1967Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution of Relative HumidityJournal of the Atmospheric Scienceshttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0469%281967%29024%3C0241%3ATEOTAW%3E2.0.CO%3B2
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DennisHartmann2/3US1Charlson, R.J. et al.1992Climate Forcing by Antropogenic AerosolsSciencehttp://www.sciencemag.org/content/255/5043/423
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DennisHartmann3/3US1Cess, R.D. et al1990Intercomparison and interpretation of climate feedback processes in 19 atmospheric general circulation modelsJournal of Geophysical Research: Atmosphereshttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/JD095iD10p16601/abstract
76
25GabrieleHegerl1/3UK1Held, I.M. & Soden, B.J.2006Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global WarmingJournal of Climatehttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI3990.1
77
GabrieleHegerl2/3UK1Hasselmann, K. 1976Stochastic climate models Part I. TheoryTellushttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1976.tb00696.x/abstract
explains that climate varies on all timescales just by natural processes and why
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GabrieleHegerl3/3UK1Charney, J. et al.1979Carbon dioxide and climate: A scientific assessment
Report of an ad hoc study group: National Research Council
http://web.atmos.ucla.edu/~brianpm/download/charney_report.pdf
79
26JorgeCarrasco1/3Chile1Molina, M. & Rowland, F.S. 1974Stratospheric sink for chlrofluoromethanes: chlorine atomic-atalysed destruction of ozoneNaturehttp://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v249/n5460/abs/249810a0.html
Both papers were very important, the fisrt one brought to the public the problem with this gases which deolete the stratospheric ozone layer, and the second paper was the first to inform about this
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JorgeCarrasco2/3Chile1
Farman, J.G., Gardiner, J.G. & Shanklin, J.D
1985Large losses of total ozone in Antarctica reveal seasonal ClOx/NOx interactionNaturehttp://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v315/n6016/abs/315207a0.html
Both papers were very important, the fisrt one brought to the public the problem with this gases which deolete the stratospheric ozone layer, and the second paper was the first to inform about this
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JorgeCarrasco3/3Chile1Keeling, C.D et al.1976Atmospheric carbon dioxide variations at Mauna Loa ObservatoryTellushttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1976.tb00701.x/abstract/
This paper revealed for the first time the observing increased of the atmospheric CO2 as the result of the combustion of carbon, petroleum and natural gas
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27JamesNeumann1/3US2Nordhaus, W.D. 1993Optimal Greenhouse-Gas Reductions and Tax Policy in the "DICE" ModelAmerican Economic Reviewhttp://www.jstor.org/stable/2117683?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents
important as it provided a transparent “jackrabbit” integrated assessment model that continues to set the standard for parsimonious tools that provide important policy insights. Developed one of the first estimates of social cost of carbon, and in updated form is still used today for that purpose.
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JamesNeumann2/3US2Parmesan, C. & Yohe, G.2003A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systemsNaturehttp://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v421/n6918/abs/nature01286.html
Established for the first time a board-based catalog of causal attribution of biological trends to climate change – a huge milestone that both expanded the traditional economic paradigm for consideration of nonmarket effects, and provided a strong link to show that climate change has already influenced natural systems.
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JamesNeumann3/3US2Milly, P.C.D et al.2008Stationarity Is Dead: Whither Water Management?Sciencehttp://www.sciencemag.org/content/319/5863/573.short
Provided a compelling argument that a fundamental assumption in water resources management, stationarity in the distribution of water resource flows, could no longer be used in the context of water supply forecasting, as a result of climate change. Has spawned a large literature but more importantly continues to influence economic evaluations of water resource investments.
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28ElviraPoloczanska1/3Australia2Beaugrand, G. et al.2002Reorganization of North Atlantic marine copepod biodiversity and climateSciencehttp://www.sciencemag.org/content/296/5573/1692.full
One of the first and best presented examples of marine life responding to recent climate change. This paper is widely cited by academics but is also widely used in reports, climate change communication websites, and other communication avenues (particularly Fig 1) so its influence is much wider than academics
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ElviraPoloczanska2/3Australia2Parmesan, C. & Yohe, G.2003A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systemsNaturehttp://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v421/n6918/abs/nature01286.html
First to provide convincing evidence (a formal attribution) for the impacts of climate change on species and communities at a global scale, again the study is widely referred to. This paper also had a strong influence on my own research path.
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ElviraPoloczanska3/3Australia2Orr, J.C. 2005Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organismsNaturehttp://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v437/n7059/full/nature04095.html
This paper raised alarms about the seriousness and the urgency around ocean acidification (a consequence of increased CO2 in the atmosphere)
88
30Richard S.J.Tol1/3UK2Nordhaus, W.D. 1991To slow or not to slow: The economics of the greenhouse effectThe Economic Journalhttp://www.jstor.org/stable/2233864?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents
89
Richard S.J.Tol2/3UK2Schelling, T.C.1992Some economics of global warmingThe American Economic Reviewhttp://infoshako.sk.tsukuba.ac.jp/~takasaki/Teaching_U/EEU/Readings/2117599.pdf
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Richard S.J.Tol3/3UK2Telser, L.G. 1980A theory of self-enforcing argumentsThe Journal of Businesshttp://www.jstor.org/stable/2352355?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents
91
31OttmarEdenhofer1/4Germany3Edenhofer, O. et al.2010The Economics of Low Stabilization: Model Comparison of Mitigation Strategies and CostsThe Energy Journalhttp://pik-potsdam.de/~lessman/docs/EdenhoferEtAl2010_Modelcomparison_ADAM.pdf
92
OttmarEdenhofer2/4Germany3Nordhaus, W.D. & Yang, Z. 1996A Regional Dynamic General-Equilibrium Model of Alternative Climate-Change StrategiesThe American Economic Reviewhttp://www.jstor.org/stable/2118303?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents
93
OttmarEdenhofer3/4Germany3Weitzman, M. 2009On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate ChangeReview of Economics and Statisticshttp://scholar.harvard.edu/weitzman/publications/modeling-and-interpreting-economics-catastrophic-climate-change
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OttmarEdenhofer4/4Germany3Peters, G.P. et al. 2011Growth in emission transfers via international trade from 1990 to 2008Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.http://www.pnas.org/content/108/21/8903.abstract
95
32RichardHarper1/3Australia3Pacala, S & Socolow, R.2004Stabilization wedges: Solving the climate problem for the next 50 years with current technologiesSciencehttp://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15310891
96
RichardHarper2/3Australia3Searchinger, T. et al.2008Use of U.S. croplands for biofuels increases greenhouse gases through emissions from land-use changeSciencehttp://www.sciencemag.org/content/319/5867/1238.short
97
RichardHarper3/3Australia3Batjes, N.H. 2005Total carbon and nitrogen in the soils of the worldEuropean Journal of Soil Sciencehttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2389.1996.tb01386.x/abstract
98
33Shang-PingXie1/3US1Manabe, S. & Wetherald, R. T.1967Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution of Relative HumidityJournal of the Atmospheric Scienceshttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0469%281967%29024%3C0241%3ATEOTAW%3E2.0.CO%3B2
99
Shang-PingXie2/3US1Manabe, S. et al. 1991Transient Responses of a Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Model to Gradual Changes of Atmospheric CO2. Part I. Annual Mean ResponseJournal of Climatehttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442%281991%29004%3C0785%3ATROACO%3E2.0.CO%3B2
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Shang-PingXie3/3US1Kosaka, Y. & Xie, S-P.2013Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface coolingNaturehttp://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v501/n7467/full/nature12534.html
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