Date of publication

Quantitative analysis of the shifting PDF of climate, which helped with demonstrating the strong links between extreme events this century and climate change. Result: more clarity and less hedging.http

Highlights the importance of, and our ability to, provide climate change projections in a far more useful format - focussing on when something happens, rather than on what might happen at a given time

Shows that even below two degrees local warming, food production in temperate regions is not safe

Uncertainty need not hold up adaptation. This paper demonstrates the importance of both capacity/vulnerability/resilience -based approaches to adaptation, and the quantitative model analyses, and argues that it is important to try to use both where possible. Result: points towards how adaptation research could better be conducted in the future

In most areas, scientific progress builds on earlier work; probably the earliest scientific paper on this topic; there is earlier work on the greenhouse effect, but not (to my knowledge) on the connection between increasing levels of CO2 and temperature

In most areas, scientific progress builds on earlier work; the birth of climate modeling

In most areas, scientific progress builds on earlier work; the famous Keeling curve

This is a very personal choice. I only picked papers from climate-change physics

This is a very personal choice. I only picked papers from climate-change physics

This is a very personal choice. I only picked papers from climate-change physics. This one is rather new and not cited that much, but it was twittered by US President Obama and perhaps will have some future impact

Induced Technological Change: Exploring its Implications for the Economics of Atmospheric Stabilization: Synthesis Report from the Innovation Modeling Comparison Project

There was also the economic model intercomparison led by Ottmar Edenhofer prior to the IPCC AR4 which influenced the IPCC-AR4 and the Stern report in showing that mitigation costs are small if the learning curves of energy technologies are dynamically modelled and not fixed. That was very very important, but not physics, so I have not included it.

Keeling made first accurate measurements of background CO2 - and after only two years found upwards trend (see Figure 2). Fought hard to get measurements funded. Idea was built on ocean measurements of CO2uptake by Revelle and Suess (1957), but inspired idea to realise significance of them. Measurement series became known as the Keeling curve, the smoking gun of climate science

This was really the first physically sound climate model allowing accurate predictions of climate change. Its results have stood the test of time amazingly well, its results are still valid today. Often when I’ve think I’ve done a new bit of work, I found that it had already been included in this paper.

Figure 5 of this paper, was really convinced people that human activity was warming climate. This wast he work that put Hansen on the path to lobby the US congress in 1988 and the beginnings of IPCC etc. This has been argued to be the first “”Attribution" of historical change to human activity.

As all my papers are by US authors I would loved to have chosen Callendar (1938) as the first attribution paper that changed the world. Unfortunately the 1938 effort of Callendar was only really recognised afterwards as being a founding publication of the field. Therefore my nod on influence really has to go to the trio of US papers to put climate science where it is today. The same comment applies to earlier Arrhenius and Tyndell efforts. They were only influential in hindsight

For the first time, the above paper made a holistic assessment of the deforestation/afforestation problem. It put the non-carbon effects (such as reflectivity and plant transpiration changes) of land cover change on the same footing as carbon sequestration.

For the first time, the above paper showed that geoengineering could slow down the global water cycle. It used fundamental physical concepts to explain the weakening of the hydrological cycle.

The above paper, for the first time, modeled the long term effects of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on ocean acidification. It raised the awareness on this "other CO2 problem"

The above paper was the first climate modeling paper on geoengineering which tested the viability of geoengineering methods that are proposed to combat climate change

First to connect the dots and realize imminent warming was in the cards

first to show that if you bring all the other GHG gases into the picture the warming threat is much more potent.

This is a tougher call -- others have been involved in demonstrating this. The importance is in showing that climate change is observable in the present.

Assuming that the recent papers are only meant I would include in the list the following publications: Reasons: -Academic impact: 346 citations so far -Political impacts: 1) Provided scientific impetus for establishing and strengthening the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (http://www.ccacoalition.org/). This is an action oriented global initiative which now includes 40+ Governments and about 60 intergovernmental and non-governmental partners 2) G8 recognized the importance of short-lived climate pollutants for the global climate and human development (https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/05/19/camp-david-declaration).

-Academic impact: 611 citations so far -Political impacts: Governments further address short-lived climate pollutants in their climate mitigation and air quality strategies

This introduced the so-called Amazon Dieback. This was influential in that it caused a shift in thinking, from considering the the climate as a physics problem, to realising that the natural world can play a significant role in affecting climate sensitivity.

has obviously been influential, shown by the fact that Climate Sceptics like to criticise it

On a historical note, John Tyndall in Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. (1861) started the whole subject

Viewed in historical perspective, i.e. looking back from the future, say in 2050, which publications will be remembered as “most influential” in climate policy: the classic paper showing that rising GHG concentrations lead to increasing global average surface temperature

http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/1992%20IPCC%20Supplement/IPCC_1990_and_1992_Assessments/English/ipcc_90_92_assessments_far_overview.pdf

Viewed in historical perspective, i.e. looking back from the future, say in 2050, which publications will be remembered as “most influential” in climate policy: the first global report on climate change dangers and response measures. Really one should jointly nominate all 5 of the IPCC Assessment Reports together (1990, 1995, 2001, 2007, 2014).

And perhaps a few more, less publicly known but very influential in the policy regime process

And perhaps a few more, less publicly known but very influential in the policy regime process. These may not be the most cited, but in future historical perspective I suggest that they will have had the most influence on actual policy decisions.

advocated key elements that were then adopted in the international regime: 1) covering multiple GHGs and sinks, rather than only CO2 from energy sources; (2) using international emissions trading both to reduce abatement costs and to engage the participation of major emitting countries; and (3) engaging the USA, China, India, and other major emitters which were not limited by the Kyoto Protocol in a new parallel or post-Kyoto regime (then actually pursued through the Major Economies Forum, the US-China announcements in Nov. 2009 and Nov. 2014, and the moves in the COPs at Copenhagen, Cancun, Durban and Paris to overcome the Annex I/non-Annex I divide through a new accord engaging all countries)

And perhaps a few more, less publicly known but very influential in the policy regime process. These may not be the most cited, but in future historical perspective I suggest that they will have had the most influence on actual policy decisions.

And perhaps a few more, less publicly known but very influential in the policy regime process. These may not be the most cited, but in future historical perspective I suggest that they will have had the most influence on actual policy decisions.

Ed Lorenz paper when he discovered chaos

Norm Phillips paper in Quart J Roy Met Soc in 1956 which was the first general circulation model

Most up to date account of the science and the implications at a global scale

This is a really tough question as there are so many dimensions to the climate problem – natural science, social science, policy etc. So here are three

This is a really tough question as there are so many dimensions to the climate problem – natural science, social science, policy etc. So here are three

This is a really tough question as there are so many dimensions to the climate problem – natural science, social science, policy etc. So here are three

Of course there is a lot of subjectivity when picking the "most influential papers in the field of climate change". But in any case, I chose three year, which have been very useful for my students: In this paper, authors generate distributions of the costs of mitigation associated with limiting transient global temperature increase below specific values, and by doing that they, somehow, "bridge the gap" between the integrated assessment community and the climate modelling community.

Of course there is a lot of subjectivity when picking the "most influential papers in the field of climate change". But in any case, I chose three year, which have been very useful for my students: In this paper, authors present a systematic scenario analysis, which has been key for the climate change negotiations that are taking place in 2015.

Of course there is a lot of subjectivity when picking the "most influential papers in the field of climate change". But in any case, I chose three year, which have been very useful for my students: In this paper, authors discuss the implication of a "2 C scenario" for the geographical exploration of fossil fuel reserves, which may have significant implications for some developing countries´ economies.

Amazing effort at metas-analysis. Climate change impacts already among us

Frames and quantifies the challenge.

Climate change is not the only societal challenge and interacts with others

A tough one! I have chosen to interpret the question in terms of influence on other scientists within the field (rather than influence on the public or policymakers which would yield a completely different list): first proper computation of global warming and stratospheric cooling from enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations, including atmospheric emission and water-vapour feedback

A tough one! I have chosen to interpret the question in terms of influence on other scientists within the field (rather than influence on the public or policymakers which would yield a completely different list): proposed what is now called the “Twomey effect” or tendency of atmospheric air pollutants to increase the reflectivity of clouds. This remains the most important unquantified human influence on climate

A tough one! I have chosen to interpret the question in terms of influence on other scientists within the field (rather than influence on the public or policymakers which would yield a completely different list): advanced what is known as the “wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier” paradigm for precipitation in global warming. This mantra has been widely misunderstood and misapplied, but was the first and perhaps still the only systematic conclusion about regional precipitation and global warming based on robust physical understanding of the atmosphere

For WGI and WG2 (difficult to mention a specific paper)

But in terms of science that has potential to INFLUENCY policy the three “papers” are the three volumes of the 5th Assessment report. Nothing else comes close as a starting point for serious policy negotiations among countries which come to the negotiations with very different views and goals but cannot be allowed ot have very different facts as well. Tha tis why the IPCC Assessment Reports have to best chance of being accepted nearly universally as the source of factual information on which to build negotiaitons.

But in terms of science that has potential to INFLUENCY policy the three “papers” are the three volumes of the 5th Assessment report. Nothing else comes close as a starting point for serious policy negotiations among countries which come to the negotiations with very different views and goals but cannot be allowed ot have very different facts as well. Tha tis why the IPCC Assessment Reports have to best chance of being accepted nearly universally as the source of factual information on which to build negotiaitons.

But in terms of science that has potential to INFLUENCY policy the three “papers” are the three volumes of the 5th Assessment report. Nothing else comes close as a starting point for serious policy negotiations among countries which come to the negotiations with very different views and goals but cannot be allowed ot have very different facts as well. Tha tis why the IPCC Assessment Reports have to best chance of being accepted nearly universally as the source of factual information on which to build negotiaitons.

This paper definitively established orbital variations as the driving factor of glacial-interglacial climate oscillations over the past 800,000 years. It came out at a time when computer models were indicating that the climate would respond significantly to projected increases in CO2 concentration, and showed that subtle variations in the Earth's radiative energy balance can have big effects on climate. I myself had first heard about the "global warming" problem in 1978, and the Hays et al paper was a big part of what convinced me that this problem was real.

It was not clear until then that increasing CO2, once spectral overlap with other greenhouse gases is taken into account, really did have a large effect in trapping infrared radiation (that CO2 absorbs IR radiation was not in doubt at that time).

the first to assess the magnitude of the water vapour feedback, and was frequently cited for a good 20 years after it was published:

The Summary from the 2009 Lancet series on health co-benefits of climate change mitigation. This series was a pivotal event in focusing the public health community on not just the adverse health impacts associated with climate change, but the significant and immediate health benefits that accrue from taking actions in sectors like energy, transportation and agriculture to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

This is the most up to date and sophisticated assessment of health co-benefits from air pollution reductions associated with greenhouse gas mitigation measures. It takes into account expected improvements in air pollution exposure associated with increasing global regulations and demonstrates a significant added benefit of millions of deaths averted per year from moderately strenuous greenhouse gas mitigation efforts.

There are many important papers on the health impacts of climate change, but if I had to pick a single paper, I would choose this one, which raises the prospect of future conditions in many parts of the world in the not too distant future with current trends in greenhouse gases in which outdoor environments would not be survivable for more than minutes to hours without special adaptation measures. The implications for health and economies are enormous.

explains that climate varies on all timescales just by natural processes and why

Both papers were very important, the fisrt one brought to the public the problem with this gases which deolete the stratospheric ozone layer, and the second paper was the first to inform about this

Both papers were very important, the fisrt one brought to the public the problem with this gases which deolete the stratospheric ozone layer, and the second paper was the first to inform about this

This paper revealed for the first time the observing increased of the atmospheric CO2 as the result of the combustion of carbon, petroleum and natural gas

important as it provided a transparent “jackrabbit” integrated assessment model that continues to set the standard for parsimonious tools that provide important policy insights. Developed one of the first estimates of social cost of carbon, and in updated form is still used today for that purpose.

Established for the first time a board-based catalog of causal attribution of biological trends to climate change – a huge milestone that both expanded the traditional economic paradigm for consideration of nonmarket effects, and provided a strong link to show that climate change has already influenced natural systems.

Provided a compelling argument that a fundamental assumption in water resources management, stationarity in the distribution of water resource flows, could no longer be used in the context of water supply forecasting, as a result of climate change. Has spawned a large literature but more importantly continues to influence economic evaluations of water resource investments.

One of the first and best presented examples of marine life responding to recent climate change. This paper is widely cited by academics but is also widely used in reports, climate change communication websites, and other communication avenues (particularly Fig 1) so its influence is much wider than academics

First to provide convincing evidence (a formal attribution) for the impacts of climate change on species and communities at a global scale, again the study is widely referred to. This paper also had a strong influence on my own research path.

This paper raised alarms about the seriousness and the urgency around ocean acidification (a consequence of increased CO2 in the atmosphere)