[AI Fire] Newsletter Paid Growth Calculator.xlsm

	A	B	C	E	F	G
1	Paid Newsletter Growth Calculator
2	Fill the yellow cells. The green cells calculate the results automatically. Use this before you raise spend, test a new channel, or change CPA.
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4	Main Inputs			Key Outputs
5	Average subscriber count	30,000	Use average list size, not peak list size.	Core revenue / subscriber / month	The safer monthly value per subscriber.	$0.167
6	Monthly core newsletter revenue	$5,000	Ads, sponsors, newsletter-driven sales.	Blended revenue / subscriber / month	More optimistic value using broader audience revenue.	$0.175
7	Monthly blended audience revenue	$5,250	Core revenue plus courses, membership, extra monetization.	Conservative revenue / subscriber / month	Core revenue with haircut applied.	$0.142
8	Gross margin	70.0%	Use 70% if unsure. This helps estimate real payback later.	Payback using core revenue	Months to earn back CPA.	6.1
9	Conservative haircut	85.0%	Use 85% to account for paid subscribers being weaker than organic.	Payback using conservative revenue	Stricter payback view.	7.2
10	Target payback months	9.0	Your max comfortable payback window.	Payback using blended revenue	Optimistic payback view.	5.8
11	Expected CPA	$1.02	Cost to acquire one subscriber.	Estimated new subscribers from budget	Budget divided by CPA.	$686.27
12	Monthly paid growth budget	$700.00	Current or planned paid acquisition budget.	Monthly revenue from new cohort	New subscribers x core rev/sub/month.	$114.38
13	Confirmed / accepted subscribers	300	Use confirmed, accepted, or paid subscribers, not pending.	Budget payback months	Budget divided by monthly cohort revenue.	6.1
14	Early unsubscribers	60	People who joined then left early.	Base 12-month LTV	Core rev/sub/month x average lifetime.	$2.00
15	Average subscriber lifetime months	12.0	Use your best estimate.	LTV after CPA	Estimated LTV minus CPA.	$0.98
16				Retained CPA	Spend divided by subscribers who stayed.	$2.92
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18	Quick read: if expected CPA is $1.02 and core revenue per subscriber per month is about $0.158, payback is about 6.5 months. If you use the conservative value, payback is closer to 7.7 months.
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