Calculations for Human-Level AI (Public)


1	Estimate of Complexity	Processing Power Needed	How Determined
2	Easy: Ray Kurzweil's estimate #1 from Singularity Is Near	10^14 instructions/second	Extrapolated from the weight of the portion of the brain responsible for image processing to, compared to the computer computation necessary to recreate
3	Medium: Ray Kurzweil's estimate #2 from Singularity Is Near	10^15 instructions/second	Based on the human brain containing 10^11 neurons, and it taking 10^4 instructions per neuron.
4	Hard: My worst case scenario: brute force simulation of every neuron	10^18 instructions/second	Brute force simulation of 10^11 neurons, each having 10^4 synapses, firing up to 10^3 times per second.
5				40,000,000,000	40 billion neurons
6	With Glial cells	10^20	Approximately 10x glial cells, assume it has a 10^3 cost above brute force neuron simulation
7
8
9	Computer	MIPS	Year
10	Intel Pentium Pro	541	1996
11	Intel Core i7 3960X	177730	2011
12					14.94157189
13	Gap in years	15
14	Total Growth	328.52
15	Rate of growth	1.47
16
17		Mips	1,000,000
18		Num Computers	1			100			10000
19			Percent of lower bound (10^14)	Percent of middle bound	Percent of upper bound	Percent of lower bound (10^14)	Percent of middle bound	Percent of upper bound	Percent of lower bound (10^14)	Percent of middle bound	Percent of upper bound
20			100000000000000	1E+16	1E+18	100000000000000	1E+16	1E+18	100000000000000	1E+16	1E+18
21	2011	177,730	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.18	0.00	0.00	17.77	0.18	0.00
22	2012	261,536	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.26	0.00	0.00	26.15	0.26	0.00
23	2013	384,860	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.38	0.00	0.00	38.49	0.38	0.00
24	2014	566,335	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.57	0.01	0.00	56.63	0.57	0.01
25	2015	833,382	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.83	0.01	0.00	83.34	0.83	0.01
26	2016	1,226,352	0.01	0.00	0.00	1.23	0.01	0.00	122.64	1.23	0.01
27	2017	1,804,622	0.02	0.00	0.00	1.80	0.02	0.00	180.46	1.80	0.02
28	2018	2,655,566	0.03	0.00	0.00	2.66	0.03	0.00	265.56	2.66	0.03
29	2019	3,907,760	0.04	0.00	0.00	3.91	0.04	0.00	390.78	3.91	0.04
30	2020	5,750,410	0.06	0.00	0.00	5.75	0.06	0.00	575.04	5.75	0.06
31	2021	8,461,936	0.08	0.00	0.00	8.46	0.08	0.00	846.19	8.46	0.08
32	2022	12,452,043	0.12	0.00	0.00	12.45	0.12	0.00	1,245.20	12.45	0.12
33	2023	18,323,630	0.18	0.00	0.00	18.32	0.18	0.00	1,832.36	18.32	0.18
34	2024	26,963,882	0.27	0.00	0.00	26.96	0.27	0.00	2,696.39	26.96	0.27
35	2025	39,678,324	0.40	0.00	0.00	39.68	0.40	0.00	3,967.83	39.68	0.40
36	2026	58,388,083	0.58	0.01	0.00	58.39	0.58	0.01	5,838.81	58.39	0.58
37	2027	85,920,168	0.86	0.01	0.00	85.92	0.86	0.01	8,592.02	85.92	0.86
38	2028	126,434,622	1.26	0.01	0.00	126.43	1.26	0.01	12,643.46	126.43	1.26
39	2029	186,053,101	1.86	0.02	0.00	186.05	1.86	0.02	18,605.31	186.05	1.86
40	2030	273,783,840	2.74	0.03	0.00	273.78	2.74	0.03	27,378.38	273.78	2.74
41	2031	402,882,783	4.03	0.04	0.00	402.88	4.03	0.04	40,288.28	402.88	4.03
42	2032	592,856,529	5.93	0.06	0.00	592.86	5.93	0.06	59,285.65	592.86	5.93
43	2033	872,409,740	8.72	0.09	0.00	872.41	8.72	0.09	87,240.97	872.41	8.72
44	2034	1,283,782,360	12.84	0.13	0.00	1,283.78	12.84	0.13	128,378.24	1,283.78	12.84
45	2035	1,889,131,989	18.89	0.19	0.00	1,889.13	18.89	0.19	188,913.20	1,889.13	18.89
46	2036	2,779,925,777	27.80	0.28	0.00	2,779.93	27.80	0.28	277,992.58	2,779.93	27.80
47	2037	4,090,760,925	40.91	0.41	0.00	4,090.76	40.91	0.41	409,076.09	4,090.76	40.91
48	2038	6,019,702,067	60.20	0.60	0.01	6,019.70	60.20	0.60	601,970.21	6,019.70	60.20
49	2039	8,858,208,447	88.58	0.89	0.01	8,858.21	88.58	0.89	885,820.84	8,858.21	88.58
50	2040	13,035,172,840	130.35	1.30	0.01	13,035.17	130.35	1.30	1,303,517.28	13,035.17	130.35
51	2041	19,181,726,415	191.82	1.92	0.02	19,181.73	191.82	1.92	1,918,172.64	19,181.73	191.82
52	2042	28,226,601,426	282.27	2.82	0.03	28,226.60	282.27	2.82	2,822,660.14	28,226.60	282.27
53	2043	41,536,460,839	415.36	4.15	0.04	41,536.46	415.36	4.15	4,153,646.08	41,536.46	415.36
54	2044	61,122,398,441	611.22	6.11	0.06	61,122.40	611.22	6.11	6,112,239.84	61,122.40	611.22
55	2045	89,943,811,191	899.44	8.99	0.09	89,943.81	899.44	8.99	8,994,381.12	89,943.81	899.44
56	2046	132,355,558,321	1,323.56	13.24	0.13	132,355.56	1,323.56	13.24	13,235,555.83	132,355.56	1,323.56
57	2047	194,765,972,070	1,947.66	19.48	0.19	194,765.97	1,947.66	19.48	19,476,597.21	194,765.97	1,947.66
58	2048	286,605,144,187	2,866.05	28.66	0.29	286,605.14	2,866.05	28.66	28,660,514.42	286,605.14	2,866.05
59	2049	421,749,794,389	4,217.50	42.17	0.42	421,749.79	4,217.50	42.17	42,174,979.44	421,749.79	4,217.50
60	2050	620,620,015,637	6,206.20	62.06	0.62	620,620.02	6,206.20	62.06	62,062,001.56	620,620.02	6,206.20
61	2051	913,264,710,341			0.91
62	2052	1,343,901,920,885			1.34
63	2053	1,977,600,089,556			1.98