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How to Present an Operating Plan
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Kellbog by Dave Kellogg
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Slide 1: The ARR Leaky Bucket and Overall Key metrics
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Proposed
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202120221Q232Q233Q234Q23202320242025
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Actual
Forecast
PlanPlanPlanPlanPlanModelModel
Comment
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Starting ARR
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New ARR
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From new logo ("newlogo ARR")
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From existing ("expansion ARR")
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Churn ARR
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From shrinking ("downsell")
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From lost
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Ending ARR
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YoY growth %
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Net new ARR
New ARR - churn ARR
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Burn ratio (CF from ops / net new ARR)
Cashflow from operations / new new ARR -- similar to cash conversion score but not from inception, inverted relative to BVP, and operating cashlow only
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New ARR YoY growth %
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Churn ARR YoY growth %
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Expansion ARR as % of new ARR
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Net dollar retention (cohort-based) %
ARR (today) from year-ago customers / ARR (year-ago) from year-ago customers
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Gross dollar retention (cohort-based) %
ARR (today and excluding expansions) from year-ago customers / ARR (year-ago) from year-ago customers
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Churn rate (ATR-based) %
Churn ARR / available-to-renew ARR (factors out non-renewing multi-year contracts)
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Employees (ending)
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Quota-carrying reps (QCRs) (ending)
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Customer success managers (CSMs) (ending)
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Code-committing devs (CCDs) (ending)
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New ARR / ramped rep (average)
New ARR from ramped reps / number of ramped reps, show quarterly for qtrs, annually for years ("same store sales")
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ARR / CSM (average)
Remember that last quarter's new gets included in this quarter's existing
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ARR / employee (ending)
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Notes
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Kellogg is protected by a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International license agreement
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