| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Nigeria | |||||||
2 | SMS Reminders Program | |||||||
3 | Simple CEA | |||||||
4 | Best guess | 25th percentile | 75th percentile | 25th percentile cost-effectiveness | 75th percentile cost-effectiveness | |||
5 | Grant | |||||||
6 | Grant size | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | ||
7 | ||||||||
8 | Under-five mortality benefits | |||||||
9 | Cost per caregiver/child reached | $2.92 | $1.50 | $3.50 | 23 | 10 | ||
10 | Number of children reached | 34,247 | ||||||
11 | Proportion of reached children who would be vaccinated in the absence of the program | 65% | 54% | 76% | 15 | 8 | ||
12 | Estimated reduction in the number unvaccinated infants as a result of an SMS reminders program (%) | 15% | 5% | 25% | 4 | 19 | ||
13 | Number of additional children vaccinated as a result of the program | 1,836 | ||||||
14 | Probability that an unvaccinated child will die of vaccine-preventable causes before age 5 | 2.7% | 1.4% | 4.0% | 6 | 17 | ||
15 | Proportion of under-5 vaccine-preventable disease mortality averted by full vaccination | 52% | 38% | 68% | 8 | 17 | ||
16 | Number of deaths averted before age five | 26 | ||||||
17 | ||||||||
18 | Initial cost-effectiveness estimate | |||||||
19 | Cost per under-five death averted (prior to final adjustments) | $3,835 | ||||||
20 | Moral weight of averting the death of a person under age five | 116 | ||||||
21 | Initial cost-effectiveness in terms of multiples of GiveDirectly's unconditional cash transfer program | 9.0 | ||||||
22 | ||||||||
23 | Adjustments for other benefits (as % U5 benefits) | |||||||
24 | Adjustment to account for mortalities averted after age 5 | 15% | ||||||
25 | Adjustment to account for developmental benefits (long-term income increases) | 33% | ||||||
26 | ||||||||
27 | Percentage of program impact coming from different benefits (as % of modeled benefits) | |||||||
28 | Mortalities averted before age five | 67% | ||||||
29 | Mortalities averted after age five | 10% | ||||||
30 | Developmental benefits (long-term income increases) | 22% | ||||||
31 | ||||||||
32 | Additional adjustments | |||||||
33 | Adjustment for additional program benefits and downsides | 20% | ||||||
34 | Adjustment for grantee-level factors | -7% | ||||||
35 | Adjustment for funging | -9% | ||||||
36 | Adjustment for leverage | -12% | ||||||
37 | ||||||||
38 | Final cost-effectiveness estimate | |||||||
39 | Final cost-effectiveness in terms of multiples of GiveDirectly's unconditional cash transfer program | 11.7 | ||||||
40 | Final cost per life saved | $4,689 | ||||||
41 | ||||||||