|66 (and growing) things I am watching in the 2019 general election: an Election Night cheat sheet. |
by Daniel Nichanian (@Taniel) | Feel free to message me with suggestions (thanks for prior tips!), bookmark & share!
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|Most elections are on Nov. 5; Louisiana's remaining runoffs are on Nov. 16.|
|STATEWIDE ELECTIONS||LEGISLATURES||LOCAL ELECTIONS I AM WATCHING (AND WHY)|
|Governors||Trifecta Watch||District attorneys (non-exhaustive)|
|Dem-held||Currently split control||CA: San Fransisco|
Candidates jockeying for reform; S. Loftus's appointment as interim DA in October shuffles cards.
Louisiana. Gov: D. Leg: R.
|NY: Dutchess County|
DA Grady (R) is seeking a NINTH term. He has defended punitive policies; opponent favors the pretrial reforms.
|GOP-held||Virginia. Gov: D. Leg: R.||NY: Queens|
Melinda Katz got the Dem nomination (against Caban); now faces a GOP opponent who wants "law & order"
|Kentucky||Currently Dem control||NY: Monroe County (Rochester)|
President-elect of state prosecutors' association, who has lobbied against reforms, faces tough challenger.
|Mississippi||New Jersey||NY: Ulster County (Kingston)|
ADA Michael Kavanagh (R) vs. David Clegg (D), a former public defender running by emphasizing reform.
|before election: 27 GOP, 23 Dem||Currently GOP control||PA: Allegheny Co. (Pittsburgh)|
Longtime incumbent won Dem primary; now faces public defender running against his punitive record.
|Kentucky||PA: Delaware County||Incumbent Republican challenged by a Democrat with some promises to introduce reform|
|Attorney General||Louisiana||PA: Lancaster County||Hobie Crystle (D) challenging Heather Adams (R) with a reform message.|
|GOP-held||VA: Albemarle County|
J. Hingeley (D) is running on a platform of ending mass incarceration against incumbent R. Tracci (R).
|Louisiana||GOP||Chambers||VA: Arlington County|
P. Dehghani-Tafti ousted incumbent on reform message in D primary; now sole candidate on ballot.
|Dem-held||BEFORE||SWING||VA: Chesterfield County|
Scott Miles (D) won 2018 primary on reform message; now GOP opponent wants to roll back reforms.
|Kentucky||Can Democrats take over?||VA: Fairfax County|
S. Descano (D) ousted incumbent on reform message in primary; GOP-endorsed rival warning against reform
|Missisippi||VA | House||51R-49D||VA: Loudoun County|
Yet another open election with contrasting stances on criminal justice reform in Northern Virginia.
|VA | Senate||21R-19D||VA: Prince William County|
In big NoVa county, candidates running to replace a 51-year incumbent with some stakes for reform.
|Referenda (non-exhaustive)||Can GOP grab a supermajority?||See also: Will there be a wave of reform DAs in VA?||Read primer.|
|CO: ed/transport funds (CC)||LA | Senate||25R-14D||YES||See also: What is at stake in NY's DA elections?||Read primer.|
|PA: Marsy's Law||LA | House||61R-39D-5I|
|TX: ban on income tax||Control unlikely to swing||Other county or district-level elections (non-exhaustive)|
|WA: affirmative action (RR88)||MS | House||33R-19D||KY: Supreme Court Judge (1st district)|
C. Nickell & W. Westerfield (a GOP state senator) running for one of the 7 seats on Supreme Court.
WA: cut transport funds (I976)
|MS | Senate||75R-45D-2I||NY: Erie County executive||Republicans are trying to wrestle back control of Erie County (Buffalo).|
|NJ | Assembly||54-26 D||LA: HD 50, 62, 68, 70, 71, 94, 105|
GOP wins a supermajority in the House (to go along its new Senate one) if it sweeps these 7 runoffs.
|Secretaries of State|
TX: Harris Co (Houston): Transit funding
|a $3.5 billion bond issue to fund light rail, bus rapid transit, and more|
|Dem-held||TX: HD28 special election||Dems aiming to pick-up GOP seat in special, with 2020 battle for control looming.|
|Kentucky||UT: San Juan Co. referendum|
After 1st Navajo-majority commission in 2018, some residents pushed for a vote to change local government.
|GOP-held||VA: Prince William County board chair|
Corey Stewart, famous for his neo-Confederate statewide runs, is retiring in this D-leaning county.
|Louisiana: headed to runoff||VA: HD 50 (Dem held)||Lee Carter (D), who made news in 2017 for winning as a socialist, is seeking a second term.|
|Mississippi||VA: HD 94 (GOP held)||This is the district that the GOP won in a random draw in 2017.|
|VA: HD 28 (GOP held)|
This is the district where there were errors as to what district some voters were assigned to in 2017.
|Judges||VA: HD 30 (GOP held)||GOP is stuck running a write-in in a safe seat after an incumbent was kicked from ballot.|
|Pennsylvania||See also: A spreadsheet with the hot spots in VA.||Spreadsheet|
|2 open Superior Court seats|
|Dems could flip court if they sweep both.||Sheriffs (non-exhaustive)|
|LA: East Baton Rouge Parish||Incumbent|
LA's biggest parish. Jail has string of unreported deaths. And GOP sheriff in ICE's 287g; Dems say they'll quit
|LA: Ascension Parish||Incumbent|
Sheriff defends long detention of Latinx U.S. citizen against ACLU lawsuit. Challenger denounces it.
|LA: St. Tammany Parish||RUNOFF||Parish has lucrative ICE contract. One GOP challenger wants to review, cut jail population.|
|NJ: Monmouth County||County tied to ICE; has a 287(g) contract. GOP sheriff up for reelection, but in a red county.|
|MS: LeFlore County||Longtime sheriff (R. Banks) part of Curtis Flowers investigation, up for reelection.|
|VA: Loudoun County||Sheriff taking donations from the private healthcare provider oversees.|
|VA: Prince William County||County tight with ICE. GOP incumbent vs. Dem challenger, who wants to roll back ties.|
|VA: Warren County||Dem nominee is running on using sheriffs' powers for decarcerative purposes.|
|WA: Snohomish County||Incumbent running on arresting fewer people; challenger wants more arrests.|
|See also: Why NJ''s elections for sheriff matter.||Read primer.|
|See also: ICE reach at stake in LA's sheriff races.||Read primer|
|Municipal or city-level elections (non-exhaustive)|
|New York City: Ranked choiced voting||Will voters approve the use of ranked-choice voting in city elections?|
|New York City: Civilian review board|
A ballot question would strengthen the review board, but advocates are asking for stronger system.
|Houston mayoral election||Mayor Turner running for re-election; challengers' false claims about crime at issue.|
|Raleigh mayoral election||Mayor Nancy McFarlane is not running, and the six way race (Oct. 8) will likely go to ro a runoff.|
|Philadelphia city council races|
2 WFP candidates are aiming to win minority-seats (over GOP); one, Kendra Brooks, was endorsed by Warren.
|Seattle city council races||Kshama Sawant (incumbent) & Shaun Scott running for city council identifying as socialist.|
|East Baton Rouge, LA: St. George||YES|
A whiter part of East Baton Rouge votes to form its own municipality; separate school district on horizon.
Oyster Bay Town Supervisor, Nassau Co.
Joe Saladino, who allegedly refused to sell a house over the buyer being black, is up for re-election.
|Other municipalities, like Des Moines (IA), Tuscon (AZ), Indianapolis (IN) Durham (NC) Wichita (KS), Spokane (WA) also hold mayoral or municipal races. |
I'll update with more clarity on stakes.
For intance, you can consult this list of municipal elections happening in NC's Triangle area: https://twitter.com/CharlieReece/status/1176879012767064064/photo/1