What to track in the 2019 elections?
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66 (and growing) things I am watching in the 2019 general election: an Election Night cheat sheet.
by Daniel Nichanian (@Taniel) | Feel free to message me with suggestions (thanks for prior tips!), bookmark & share!
You can also: subscribe to my newsletter on politics of criminal justice...
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... and follow me on Twitter.
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Most elections are on Nov. 5; Louisiana's remaining runoffs are on Nov. 16.
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STATEWIDE ELECTIONSLEGISLATURESLOCAL ELECTIONS I AM WATCHING (AND WHY)
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GovernorsTrifecta WatchDistrict attorneys (non-exhaustive)
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Dem-heldCurrently split controlCA: San Fransisco
Candidates jockeying for reform; S. Loftus's appointment as interim DA in October shuffles cards.
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Louisiana runoff
Louisiana. Gov: D. Leg: R.
NY: Dutchess County
DA Grady (R) is seeking a NINTH term. He has defended punitive policies; opponent favors the pretrial reforms.
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GOP-heldVirginia. Gov: D. Leg: R.NY: Queens
Melinda Katz got the Dem nomination (against Caban); now faces a GOP opponent who wants "law & order"
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KentuckyCurrently Dem controlNY: Monroe County (Rochester)
President-elect of state prosecutors' association, who has lobbied against reforms, faces tough challenger.
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MississippiNew JerseyNY: Ulster County (Kingston)
ADA Michael Kavanagh (R) vs. David Clegg (D), a former public defender running by emphasizing reform.
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before election: 27 GOP, 23 DemCurrently GOP controlPA: Allegheny Co. (Pittsburgh)
Longtime incumbent won Dem primary; now faces public defender running against his punitive record.
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KentuckyPA: Delaware CountyIncumbent Republican challenged by a Democrat with some promises to introduce reform
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Attorney GeneralLouisianaPA: Lancaster CountyHobie Crystle (D) challenging Heather Adams (R) with a reform message.
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GOP-heldVA: Albemarle County
J. Hingeley (D) is running on a platform of ending mass incarceration against incumbent R. Tracci (R).
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LouisianaGOPChambers VA: Arlington County
P. Dehghani-Tafti ousted incumbent on reform message in D primary; now sole candidate on ballot.
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Dem-heldBEFORESWINGVA: Chesterfield County
Scott Miles (D) won 2018 primary on reform message; now GOP opponent wants to roll back reforms.
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KentuckyCan Democrats take over?VA: Fairfax County
S. Descano (D) ousted incumbent on reform message in primary; GOP-endorsed rival warning against reform
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MissisippiVA | House51R-49DVA: Loudoun County
Yet another open election with contrasting stances on criminal justice reform in Northern Virginia.
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VA | Senate21R-19DVA: Prince William County
In big NoVa county, candidates running to replace a 51-year incumbent with some stakes for reform.
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Referenda (non-exhaustive)Can GOP grab a supermajority?See also: Will there be a wave of reform DAs in VA?Read primer.
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CO: ed/transport funds (CC)LA | Senate 25R-14DYESSee also: What is at stake in NY's DA elections?Read primer.
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PA: Marsy's LawLA | House61R-39D-5I
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TX: ban on income taxControl unlikely to swingOther county or district-level elections (non-exhaustive)
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WA: affirmative action (RR88)MS | House33R-19DKY: Supreme Court Judge (1st district)
C. Nickell & W. Westerfield (a GOP state senator) running for one of the 7 seats on Supreme Court.
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WA: cut transport funds (I976)
MS | Senate75R-45D-2INY: Erie County executiveRepublicans are trying to wrestle back control of Erie County (Buffalo).
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NJ | Assembly 54-26 DLA: HD 50, 62, 68, 70, 71, 94, 105
GOP wins a supermajority in the House (to go along its new Senate one) if it sweeps these 7 runoffs.
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Secretaries of State
TX: Harris Co (Houston): Transit funding
a $3.5 billion bond issue to fund light rail, bus rapid transit, and more
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Dem-heldTX: HD28 special electionDems aiming to pick-up GOP seat in special, with 2020 battle for control looming.
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KentuckyUT: San Juan Co. referendum
After 1st Navajo-majority commission in 2018, some residents pushed for a vote to change local government.
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GOP-heldVA: Prince William County board chair
Corey Stewart, famous for his neo-Confederate statewide runs, is retiring in this D-leaning county.
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Louisiana: headed to runoffVA: HD 50 (Dem held)Lee Carter (D), who made news in 2017 for winning as a socialist, is seeking a second term.
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MississippiVA: HD 94 (GOP held)This is the district that the GOP won in a random draw in 2017.
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VA: HD 28 (GOP held)
This is the district where there were errors as to what district some voters were assigned to in 2017.
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JudgesVA: HD 30 (GOP held)GOP is stuck running a write-in in a safe seat after an incumbent was kicked from ballot.
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PennsylvaniaSee also: A spreadsheet with the hot spots in VA.Spreadsheet
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2 open Superior Court seats
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Dems could flip court if they sweep both.Sheriffs (non-exhaustive)
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LA: East Baton Rouge Parish Incumbent
LA's biggest parish. Jail has string of unreported deaths. And GOP sheriff in ICE's 287g; Dems say they'll quit
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LA: Ascension Parish Incumbent
Sheriff defends long detention of Latinx U.S. citizen against ACLU lawsuit. Challenger denounces it.
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LA: St. Tammany Parish RUNOFFParish has lucrative ICE contract. One GOP challenger wants to review, cut jail population.
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NJ: Monmouth CountyCounty tied to ICE; has a 287(g) contract. GOP sheriff up for reelection, but in a red county.
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MS: LeFlore CountyLongtime sheriff (R. Banks) part of Curtis Flowers investigation, up for reelection.
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VA: Loudoun CountySheriff taking donations from the private healthcare provider oversees.
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VA: Prince William CountyCounty tight with ICE. GOP incumbent vs. Dem challenger, who wants to roll back ties.
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VA: Warren CountyDem nominee is running on using sheriffs' powers for decarcerative purposes.
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WA: Snohomish CountyIncumbent running on arresting fewer people; challenger wants more arrests.
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See also: Why NJ''s elections for sheriff matter.Read primer.
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See also: ICE reach at stake in LA's sheriff races.Read primer
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Municipal or city-level elections (non-exhaustive)
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New York City: Ranked choiced votingWill voters approve the use of ranked-choice voting in city elections?
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New York City: Civilian review board
A ballot question would strengthen the review board, but advocates are asking for stronger system.
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Houston mayoral electionMayor Turner running for re-election; challengers' false claims about crime at issue.
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Raleigh mayoral electionMayor Nancy McFarlane is not running, and the six way race (Oct. 8) will likely go to ro a runoff.
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Philadelphia city council races
2 WFP candidates are aiming to win minority-seats (over GOP); one, Kendra Brooks, was endorsed by Warren.
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Seattle city council racesKshama Sawant (incumbent) & Shaun Scott running for city council identifying as socialist.
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East Baton Rouge, LA: St. GeorgeYES
A whiter part of East Baton Rouge votes to form its own municipality; separate school district on horizon.
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Oyster Bay Town Supervisor, Nassau Co.
Joe Saladino, who allegedly refused to sell a house over the buyer being black, is up for re-election.
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Other municipalities, like Des Moines (IA), Tuscon (AZ), Indianapolis (IN) Durham (NC) Wichita (KS), Spokane (WA) also hold mayoral or municipal races.
I'll update with more clarity on stakes.
For intance, you can consult this list of municipal elections happening in NC's Triangle area: https://twitter.com/CharlieReece/status/1176879012767064064/photo/1
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