L-risk simulations

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1	Brief description	Notes	Loss of value of reverting to Preindustrial-1 as as proportion of loss of value of extinction	Loss of value of reverting to Industrial-1 as proportion of loss of value of extinction	Absolute loss of expected value from transitioning to Preindustrial-1	Absolute loss of expected value from transitioning to Industrial-1	perils-0	multiplanetary-0	preindustrial-1	industrial-1	perils-1	multiplanetary-1	preindustrial-2	industrial-2	perils-2	multiplanetary-2	preindustrial-3	industrial-3	perils-3	multiplanetary-3	preindustrial-4	industrial-4	perils-4	multiplanetary-4	preindustrial-5	industrial-5	perils-5	multiplanetary-5	preindustrial-6	industrial-6	perils-6	multiplanetary-6	preindustrial-7	industrial-7	perils-7	multiplanetary-7	preindustrial-8	industrial-8	perils-8	multiplanetary-8	preindustrial-9	industrial-9	perils-9	multiplanetary-9	MAX_PLANETS	MAX_CIVILISATIONS	MAX_PROGRESS_YEARS	preperils_preindustrial_base_expected_time_in_years	preperils_preindustrial_stretch_per_reboot	preperils_preindustrial_base_annual_extinction_probability	preperils_preindustrial_per_civilisation_annual_extinction_probability_multiplier	preperils_industrial_base_expected_time_in_years	preperils_industrial_stretch_per_reboot	preperils_industrial_base_annual_extinction_probability	preperils_industrial_annual_extinction_probability_coefficient	preperils_industrial_per_civilisation_annual_extinction_probability_multiplier	perils_current_progress_year	perils_extinction_y_scale	perils_extinction_base_x_scale	perils_extinction_stretch_per_reboot	perils_extinction_x_translation	perils_extinction_sharpness	perils_extinction_base_background_risk	perils_extinction_per_reboot_background_risk_multiplier	perils_preindustrial_y_scale	perils_preindustrial_base_x_scale	perils_preindustrial_x_translation	perils_preindustrial_sharpness	perils_preindustrial_stretch_per_reboot	perils_preindustrial_per_reboot_background_risk_multiplier	perils_preindustrial_base_background_risk	perils_industrial_y_scale	perils_industrial_base_x_scale	perils_industrial_x_translation	perils_industrial_sharpness	perils_industrial_stretch_per_reboot	perils_industrial_per_reboot_background_risk_multiplier	perils_industrial_base_background_risk	perils_progress_year_n_algorithm	perils_progress_year_n_common_ratio_for_geometric_sum	perils_progress_year_n_any_regression	perils_multiplanetary_y_scale	perils_multiplanetary_base_x_scale	perils_multiplanetary_x_translation	perils_multiplanetary_sharpness	perils_multiplanetary_stretch_per_reboot	perils_multiplanetary_per_reboot_background_risk_multiplier	perils_multiplanetary_base_background_risk	perils_interstellar_y_scale	perils_interstellar_base_x_scale	perils_interstellar_stretch_per_reboot	perils_interstellar_x_translation	perils_interstellar_sharpness	perils_interstellar_per_reboot_background_risk_multiplier	perils_interstellar_base_background_risk	multiplanetary_extinction_two_planet_risk	multiplanetary_extinction_decay_rate	multiplanetary_extinction_min_risk	multiplanetary_extinction_stretch_per_reboot	multiplanetary_preindustrial_two_planet_risk
2	Base estimate		0.4361050745	0.3540466708	0.1672657308	0.1357926761	0.3835445643	0.5740332709	0.2162788335	0.2477518882	0.2485630413	0.5401549552	0.1047207362	0.1211225091	0.1225442007	0.518442632	0.03429218269	0.04007503898	0.04177980169	0.5100281656	0.007643482966	0.009031821223	0.01048009647	0.5077842631	0.001049165219	0.001254510473	0.002133341718	0.5073174652	4.93E-05	5.96E-05	0.0003969705605	0.5072291348	6.42E-08	7.88E-08	6.84E-05	0.5072137143	2.86E-16	3.56E-16	1.10E-05	0.5072112053	0	0	1.71E-06	0.5072107455	20	10	3000	10571	1.05	1.20E-05	1.02	109	3.5	1.20E-05	0.7	1.02	71	0.00054	108	3.5	15	6	5.40E-06	1.05	0.0008	180	5	0.4	3.5	1.05	1.60E-05	0.0056	180	0	0.9	3.5	1.05	2.20E-05	mean	1.4	0.057	0.07	240	70	1.5	3.5	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0.12	0.45	0	1	0
3	Removing any risk of direct extinction from time of perils		0.4488720035	0.3686714528	0.1762616722	0.1447687676	0.392676912	0.5740754156	0.2164152398	0.2479081444	0.2487198091	0.5401550187	0.1047209381	0.1211227426	0.1225444369	0.518442632	0.03429218279	0.04007503909	0.0417798018	0.5100281656	0.007643482966	0.009031821223	0.01048009647	0.5077842631	0.001049165219	0.001254510473	0.002133341718	0.5073174652	4.93E-05	5.96E-05	0.0003969705605	0.5072291348	6.42E-08	7.88E-08	6.84E-05	0.5072137143	2.86E-16	3.56E-16	1.10E-05	0.5072112053	0	0	1.71E-06	0.5072107455	20	10	3000	10571	1.05	1.20E-05	1.02	109	3.5	1.20E-05	0.7	1.02	71	0	108	3.5	15	6	5.40E-06	1.05	0.0008	180	5	0.4	3.5	1.05	1.60E-05	0.0056	180	0	0.9	3.5	1.05	2.20E-05	mean	1.4	0.057	0.07	240	70	1.5	3.5	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0.12	0.45	0	1	0
4	Removing any risk of direct extinction from time of perils and multiplanetary		0.4505130778	0.3705513374	0.2508017228	0.206286828	0.5567024247	0.8151101142	0.3059007019	0.3504155967	0.3515628763	0.7641672508	0.1477512096	0.1708925842	0.1728984586	0.7316631902	0.04834559482	0.05649834583	0.05890174394	0.7190803198	0.01077348613	0.01273034833	0.01477169171	0.7157257759	0.001478723577	0.001768143073	0.003006793058	0.7150279743	6.94E-05	8.41E-05	0.0005594959355	0.7148959335	9.04E-08	1.11E-07	9.64E-05	0.7148728822	4.03E-16	5.02E-16	1.56E-05	0.7148691316	0	0	2.41E-06	0.7148684443	20	10	3000	10571	1.05	1.20E-05	1.02	109	3.5	1.20E-05	0.7	1.02	71	0	108	3.5	15	6	5.40E-06	1.05	0.0008	180	5	0.4	3.5	1.05	1.60E-05	0.0056	180	0	0.9	3.5	1.05	2.20E-05	mean	1.4	0.057	0.07	240	70	1.5	3.5	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.45	0	1	0
5	Removing any risk of regression to industrial from our current time of perils only	Displaces columns at perils_industrial_base_x_scale (inserting what would be the perils_industrial_current_perils_y_scale value)	0.5674969102	0.504558743	0.2837842611	0.2523112065	0.5000630947	0.5740332709	0.2162788335	0.2477518882	0.2485630413	0.5401549552	0.1047207362	0.1211225091	0.1225442007	0.518442632	0.03429218269	0.04007503898	0.04177980169	0.5100281656	0.007643482966	0.009031821223	0.01048009647	0.5077842631	0.001049165219	0.001254510473	0.002133341718	0.5073174652	4.93E-05	5.96E-05	3.97E-04	5.07E-01	6.42E-08	7.88E-08	6.84E-05	5.07E-01	2.86E-16	3.56E-16	1.10E-05	5.07E-01	0.00E+00	0	1.71E-06	0.5072107455	2.00E+01	10	3000	10571	1.05	1.20E-05	1.02	1.09E+02	3.5	1.20E-05	0.7	1.02E+00	71	0.00054	108	3.5	15	6	5.40E-06	1.05	8.00E-04	180	5	0.4	3.5	1.05	1.60E-05	0.0056	0.00E+00	180	0	0.9	3.5	1.05	2.20E-05	mean	1.40E+00	0.057	0.07	240	70	1.5	3.5	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0.12	0.45	0	1
6	Removing any risk of regression to preindustrial from our current time of perils only	Displaces columns at perils_preindustrial_base_x_scale (the extra column is the ‘perils_preindustrial_current_perils_y_scale’ value)	0.4581844183	0.3793390169	0.1828954258	0.1514223711	0.3991742594	0.5740332709	0.2162788335	0.2477518882	0.2485630413	0.5401549552	0.1047207362	0.1211225091	0.1225442007	0.518442632	0.03429218269	0.04007503898	0.04177980169	0.5100281656	0.007643482966	0.009031821223	0.01048009647	0.5077842631	0.001049165219	0.001254510473	0.002133341718	0.5073174652	4.93E-05	5.96E-05	0.0003969705605	0.5072291348	6.42E-08	7.88E-08	6.84E-05	0.5072137143	2.86E-16	3.56E-16	1.10E-05	0.5072112053	0	0	1.71E-06	0.5072107455	20	10	3000	10571	1.05	1.20E-05	1.02	109	3.5	1.20E-05	0.7	1.02	71	0.00054	108	3.5	15	6	5.40E-06	1.05	0.0008	0	180	5	0.4	3.5	1.05	1.60E-05	0.0056	180	0	0.9	3.5	1.05	2.20E-05	mean	1.4	0.057	0.07	240	70	1.5	3.5	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0.12	0.45	0	1
7	10-year regression, representing non-nuclear great power conflict optimistic estimate		0.42513282	0.3414777259	0.1599451728	0.1284721181	0.3762240063	0.5740332709	0.2162788335	0.2477518882	0.2485630413	0.5401549552	0.1047207362	0.1211225091	0.1225442007	0.518442632	0.03429218269	0.04007503898	0.04177980169	0.5100281656	0.007643482966	0.009031821223	0.01048009647	0.5077842631	0.001049165219	0.001254510473	0.002133341718	0.5073174652	4.93E-05	5.96E-05	0.0003969705605	0.5072291348	6.42E-08	7.88E-08	6.84E-05	0.5072137143	2.86E-16	3.56E-16	1.10E-05	0.5072112053	0.00E+00	0.00E+00	1.71E-06	0.5072107455	20	10	3000	10571	1.05	1.20E-05	1.02	109	3.5	1.20E-05	0.7	1.02	61	0.00054	108	3.5	15	6	5.40E-06	1.05	0.0008	180	5	0.4	3.5	1.05	1.60E-05	0.0056	180	0	0.9	3.5	1.05	2.20E-05	mean	1.4	0.057	0.07	240	70	1.5	3.5	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0.12	0.45	0	1	0
8	20-year regression, representing non-nuclear great power conflict pessimistic estimate		0.4164969642	0.3315851739	0.1543770504	0.1229039958	0.370655884	0.5740332709	0.2162788335	0.2477518882	0.2485630413	0.5401549552	0.1047207362	0.1211225091	0.1225442007	0.518442632	0.03429218269	0.04007503898	0.04177980169	0.5100281656	0.007643482966	0.009031821223	0.01048009647	0.5077842631	0.001049165219	0.001254510473	0.002133341718	0.5073174652	4.93E-05	5.96E-05	0.0003969705605	0.5072291348	6.42E-08	7.88E-08	6.84E-05	0.5072137143	2.86E-16	3.56E-16	1.10E-05	0.5072112053	0.00E+00	0.00E+00	1.71E-06	0.5072107455	20	10	3000	10571	1.05	1.20E-05	1.02	109	3.5	1.20E-05	0.7	1.02	51	0.00054	108	3.5	15	6	5.40E-06	1.05	0.0008	180	5	0.4	3.5	1.05	1.60E-05	0.0056	180	0	0.9	3.5	1.05	2.20E-05	mean	1.4	0.057	0.07	240	70	1.5	3.5	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0.12	0.45	0	1	0
9	Counterfactually avert Covid	Advance 1 progress year and scale technological progress in perils and earlier by 0.995 to represent world without Covid	0.436343378	0.354758112	0.1679075364	0.136513039	0.384805969	0.5741781037	0.2168984326	0.2482929299	0.2491017832	0.5402750228	0.1051850283	0.1215710421	0.1229908221	0.5184989723	0.03449824543	0.04028444995	0.04198937368	0.5100451164	0.007701613977	0.009092919729	0.01054314927	0.5077880142	0.001059781136	0.001266072103	0.002147294659	0.5073181866	5.01E-05	6.06E-05	0.0003996540097	0.5072292646	6.69E-08	8.20E-08	6.89E-05	0.5072137358	3.25E-16	4.05E-16	1.11E-05	0.5072112087	0	0	1.72E-06	0.5072107455	20	10	3000	10518.145	1.05	1.20E-05	1.02	108.455	3.5	1.20E-05	0.7	1.02	72	0.00054	107.46	3.5	15	6	5.40E-06	1.05	0.0008	179.1	5	0.4	3.5	1.05	1.60E-05	0.0056	179.1	0	0.9	3.5	1.05	2.20E-05	mean	1.4	0.057	0.07	238.8	70	1.5	3.5	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0.12	0.45	0	1	0
10	Counterfactually saving one person	Scale the x-axis in current time of perils by (7.888bn-1)/7.888bn (the population of Earth according to Google). Calculation for counterfactual effect vs base case is then <perils-0 of this row>/<perils-0 of row 1>/5. The 1/5th is on the Givewell theory that 'save a life' means 'add 30 life years', and an estimate that our current time of perils will last about 150 years, so crediting the life saved with ~30/150 of the effect. Note that the current_perils parameters mess with the layout of later values in this row	0.4361050745	0.3540466708	0.1672657308	0.1357926761	0.3835445644	0.5740332709	0.2162788336	0.2477518882	0.2485630413	0.5401549552	0.1047207363	0.1211225091	0.1225442007	0.518442632	0.0342921827	0.04007503898	0.04177980169	0.5100281656	0.007643482967	0.009031821224	0.01048009647	0.5077842631	0.001049165219	0.001254510473	0.002133341719	0.5073174652	4.93E-05	5.96E-05	0.0003969705605	0.5072291348	6.42E-08	7.88E-08	6.84E-05	0.5072137143	2.86E-16	3.56E-16	1.10E-05	0.5072112053	0.00E+00	0.00E+00	1.71E-06	0.5072107455	20	10	3000	10571	1.05	1.20E-05	1.02	109	3.5	1.20E-05	0.7	1.02	71	0.00054	108	3.5	15	6	5.40E-06	1.05	0.0008	180	5	0.4	3.5	1.05	1.60E-05	0.0056	180	0	0.9	3.5	1.05	2.20E-05	mean	1.4	0.057	0.07	240	70	1.5	3.5	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0.12	0.45	0	1	0
11	Differentially advancing harmful technologies	Another way of imagining non-nuclear WWIII: scale harmful transitions 0.5x, and multiplanetary tranisition 0.75x. Then we multiply the difference from base estimate by the proportion of ToP we think will the counterfactual difference will persist for. A rough estimate for this proportion might be based on nuclear energy starting to generate serious returns around 1970, giving us a 30 year period (coincidentally, the same as we estimate a human lifespan), giving us a 1/5 multiplier	0.3995959535	0.3122247157	0.1439433115	0.1124702568	0.3602221451	0.5740332709	0.2162788335	0.2477518882	0.2485630413	0.5401549552	0.1047207362	0.1211225091	0.1225442007	0.518442632	0.03429218269	0.04007503898	0.04177980169	0.5100281656	0.007643482966	0.009031821223	0.01048009647	0.5077842631	0.001049165219	0.001254510473	0.002133341718	0.5073174652	4.93E-05	5.96E-05	0.0003969705605	0.5072291348	6.42E-08	7.88E-08	6.84E-05	0.5072137143	2.86E-16	3.56E-16	1.10E-05	0.5072112053	0	0	1.71E-06	0.5072107455	20	10	3000	10571	1.05	1.20E-05	1.02	109	3.5	1.20E-05	0.7	1.02	71	0.00054	108	54	3.5	15	6	5.40E-06	1.05	0.0008	180	90	5	0.4	3.5	1.05	1.60E-05	0.0056	180	90	0	0.9	3.5	1.05	2.20E-05	mean	1.4	0.057	0.07	240	180	70	1.5	3.5	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0.12
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