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1Q17
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January 2017
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DateCountryData / EventComments
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JanuaryJapanPossible Japanese electionPersistent media speculation that Abe may call a general election in January
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6 Jan 2017USNFPFOMC SEP dots were recently raised because unemployment rate fell to 4.6%. Further decline in unemployment rate may imply a faster pace of Fed hikes than what's currently priced in the market
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16 Jan 2017US4Q16 earnings seasonFirst week of releasing 4Q16 earnings will start on 16 Jan 17. One may take note on the expectations for 2018 earnings, assuming Trump's policies are implemented in 2017 and start impacting in 2018
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17 to 20 Jan 2017ChinaDecember 2016 activity data4Q16 Chinese activity data was surprisingly strong and it's important that the Dec 2016 data continues to stay relatively healthy as monetary easing by Pboc remains difficult due to depreciation in onshore
RMB, capital outflows and continuation of burning FX reserves to slow down pace of weakening in currency
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17 to 20 Jan 2017WorldWorld Econmic Forum in DavosTopic of discussion will be 'Responsive and Responsible Leadership', agenda may likely include details on the rise of populism and impact of Trump's political stance and agenda after inauguration

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/01/how-to-follow-davos-2017
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18 Jan 2017USCPICurrent FOMC SEP dots show that there is still a minority dovish camp within the committee and the reason for the dove-hawk split is likely due to low inflation rate (dovish) and a tight labor market (hawkish).
If CPI number moves higher, then dovish camp may become concerned about Fed falling behind the curve causing a shift higher in dots plot and market repricing of rate hikes in 2017
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19 Jan 2017EZECB rate announcementThe question remains that if economic activity / inflation starts picking up in 2017, will ECB taper its QE? And how will political risks affect the price of euro fx?
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20 Jan 2017USTrump's inaugrationMarkets have been pricing in the positives than negatives since Trump became the President-elect in Nov 2016, however, if Trump really decides to pursue US-centric and inward-looking policies after
inauguration, then this will be a headwind to markets. It's important to watch the reaction of Asian markets (especially China). Moreover, Trump appears to want to make peace with Russia and at the
same time, keeping China in check
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22 Jan 2017FranceFirst round French socialist primariesRepublican candidate Fillon may be too conservative for some centrists and hence, after Hollande decided not to stand, it becomes possible that if a strong voice rises on the Left then he/she can emerge
as the main contender in the Presidential runoff facing Marine Le Pen
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24 Jan 2017ItalyConstitutional court hearing on electoral lawChanges to electoral law (Italicum) will define chances of anti-establishment parties coming to power in parliament
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28 Jan 2017ChinaChinese New YearIf iliquidity concerns persists in China through January, it could then be exacerbated by seasonal low liquidity around Chinese New Year
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29 Jan 2017Second round French socialist primariesRepublican candidate Fillon may be too conservative for some centrists and hence, after Hollande decided not to stand, it becomes possible that if a strong voice rises on the Left then he/she can emerge
as the main contender in the Presidential runoff facing Marine Le Pen
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31 Jan 2017JapanBOJ rate announcementBOJ likely to stand pat throughout 2017 while maintaining yield curve control policy. Note that YC control policy (i.e. yield targeting to 'peg' 10y at 0.0%) is procyclical, which causally implies that if
growth / inflation dynamics improve, the 10y yield rises and BOJ is tasked to buy JGBs from local primary dealers to maintain the 'peg'. The converse is true
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February 2017
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DateCountryData / EventComments
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2 Feb 2017USFOMC rate announcement
If US labor market tightens further and/or inflation rising faster than expected and coupled with Trump's fiscal stimulus plans would likely mean that Fed is behind the curve and Fed may be forced to increase
the pace rate hiking cycle and this stregthens the USD and further tightens financial conditions globally. Consequently, this likely further worsens the economics in EMs and Asia
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2 Feb 2017UKBOE MPCOutcome, Minutes and Inflation Report
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3 Feb 2017USNFPFOMC SEP dots were recently raised because unemployment rate fell to 4.6%. Further decline in unemployment rate may imply a faster pace of Fed hikes than what's currently priced in the market
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12 Feb 2017GermanyPresidential electionThe clear favourite to win is Walter Steinmeier, the current CDU/CSU Minister of Foreign Affairs and previous Vice Chancellor. With that said, the (likely September) general election is far more important
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15 Feb 2017USCPICurrent FOMC SEP dots show that there is still a minority dovish camp within the committee and the reason for the dove-hawk split is likely due to low inflation rate (dovish) and a tight labor market (hawkish).
If CPI number moves higher, then dovish camp may become concerned about Fed falling behind the curve causing a shift higher in dots plot and market repricing of rate hikes in 2017
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March 2017
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DateCountryData / EventComments
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MarchChinaNational People's CongressKey economic targets will be set for GDP, CPI, Fixed Asset Investment, Retail Sales, M2 Money Supply and Total Social Financing
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MarchEUEU Leaders' Summit, Article 50 may be triggeredEconomic impact of Brexit has been limited thus far, however, may begin to weigh to a greater extent once Article 50 is triggered
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9 Mar 2017EZECB rate announcementThe question remains that if economic activity / inflation starts picking up in 2017, will ECB taper its QE? And how will political risks affect the price of euro fx?

Updated economic forecasts will be released at this meeting
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10 Mar 2017USNFPFOMC SEP dots were recently raised because unemployment rate fell to 4.6%. Further decline in unemployment rate may imply a faster pace of Fed hikes than what's currently priced in the market
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15 Mar 2017NetherlandsGeneral electionGeert Wilders' PVV party wants a referedum on Euro membership and is currently on ~30% support. It seems unlikely he's able to garner support from coalition partners to support his call for referendum
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15 Mar 2017USCPICurrent FOMC SEP dots show that there is still a minority dovish camp within the committee and the reason for the dove-hawk split is likely due to low inflation rate (dovish) and a tight labor market (hawkish).
If CPI number moves higher, then dovish camp may become concerned about Fed falling behind the curve causing a shift higher in dots plot and market repricing of rate hikes in 2017
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16 Mar 2017USFOMC rate announcement
If US labor market tightens further and/or inflation rising faster than expected and coupled with Trump's fiscal stimulus plans would likely mean that Fed is behind the curve and Fed may be forced to increase
the pace rate hiking cycle and this stregthens the USD and further tightens financial conditions globally. Consequently, this likely further worsens the economics in EMs and Asia

This meeting includes SEP and press conference by Fed chair
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16 Mar 2017JapanBOJ rate announcementBOJ likely to stand pat throughout 2017 while maintaining yield curve control policy. Note that YC control policy (i.e. yield targeting to 'peg' 10y at 0.0%) is procyclical, which causally implies that if
growth / inflation dynamics improve, the 10y yield rises and BOJ is tasked to buy JGBs from local primary dealers to maintain the 'peg'. The converse is true
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16 Mar 2017UKBOEMPC outcome and minutes
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16 Mar 2017USDebt ceiling to be reinstatedThe debt limit has been suspended since late 2015 but is due to be reinstated on this date
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17 to 18 Mar 2017G20G20 Fin Min / Cen Bank Govs' MeetingFed rate hikes and its implications on global growth likely to be key topics. Fiscal policy may be disccused again to do the heavy lifting to stabilize / boost growth
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26 Mar 2017HKCEO Election
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2Q17
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April 2017
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DateCountryData / EventComments
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AprilUSUS Treasury publishes semi-annual currency reportAs per Trump's proposition during his election campaign, will he exert pressure on US Treasury to label China as a 'currency manipulator'? Note that the previous currency report highlighted that the five major
trading partners of US (i.e. China, Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Germany) satisfy two of the three criteria for "enhanced bilateral agreement" consultation

The three criteria defined for enhanced consultation as below:
1) Bilateral trade surplus (with the US) larger than USD 20bn (~0.10% of US GDP)
2) Total current account surplus larger than 3.0% of the economy's GDP
3) Engaging in persistent FX intervention amounting to repeated net purchases of the foreign currency amounting to more than 2.0% of GDP over the year

Five major trading partners of US meeting two out of the three criteria for enhanced consultation:
1) China, Japan, Germany, and Korea are identified as a result of a material current account surplus and a significant bilateral trade surplus with the US
2) Taiwan is identified due to her material current account surplus and persistent FX intervention
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7 Apr 2017USNFPFOMC SEP dots were recently raised because unemployment rate fell to 4.6%. Further decline in unemployment rate may imply a faster pace of Fed hikes than what's currently priced in the market
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14 Apr 2017USCPICurrent FOMC SEP dots show that there is still a minority dovish camp within the committee and the reason for the dove-hawk split is likely due to low inflation rate (dovish) and a tight labor market (hawkish).
If CPI number moves higher, then dovish camp may become concerned about Fed falling behind the curve causing a shift higher in dots plot and market repricing of rate hikes in 2017
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19 Apr 2017IranPresidential Election
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23 Apr 2017FrancePresidential Election First RoundNational front's Marine Le Pen is expected to get through the first round. However, who will her opposition be? (Francois Fillon?)
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27 Apr 2017JapanBOJ rate announcementBOJ likely to stand pat throughout 2017 while maintaining yield curve control policy. Note that YC control policy (i.e. yield targeting to 'peg' 10y at 0.0%) is procyclical, which causally implies that if
growth / inflation dynamics improve, the 10y yield rises and BOJ is tasked to buy JGBs from local primary dealers to maintain the 'peg'. The converse is true
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28 Apr 2017USBudget resolutionsBudget resolutions are projections by US congress on their 10-year budget. With Trump promising a large fiscal stimulus package via tax cuts and infrastructure spending, how would congress respond to it?
As such, if we assume due to budget constraints that Trump can only implement part of his fiscal plan, then what are the implications for the market and how will Yellen respond to it via the pace of Fed's rate
hiking cycle?
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May 2017
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DateCountryData / EventComments
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4 May 2017USFOMC rate announcement
If US labor market tightens further and/or inflation rising faster than expected and coupled with Trump's fiscal stimulus plans would likely mean that Fed is behind the curve and Fed may be forced to increase
the pace rate hiking cycle and this stregthens the USD and further tightens financial conditions globally. Consequently, this likely further worsens the economics in EMs and Asia
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5 May 2017USNFPFOMC SEP dots were recently raised because unemployment rate fell to 4.6%. Further decline in unemployment rate may imply a faster pace of Fed hikes than what's currently priced in the market
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7 May 2017FrancePresidential Election Second RoundStreet consensus is that Fillon will defeat Le Pen (this was written on 6 Jan 2017)
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11 May 2017UKBOE MPCOutcome, Minutes and Inflation Report
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12 May 2017USCPICurrent FOMC SEP dots show that there is still a minority dovish camp within the committee and the reason for the dove-hawk split is likely due to low inflation rate (dovish) and a tight labor market (hawkish).
If CPI number moves higher, then dovish camp may become concerned about Fed falling behind the curve causing a shift higher in dots plot and market repricing of rate hikes in 2017
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25 May 2017OPECRegular OPEC meeting, Vienna, AustriaThe OPEC deal struck in November 2016 (lasting for six months), will be reviewed during this meeting
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June 2017
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DateCountryData / EventComments
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JuneChinaMSCI Market Classification ReviewMSCI will announce the result of the China A-shares inclusion proposal, as part of the 2017 Market Classification Review in June 2017
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JuneEZECB forum on central bankingEquivalent to Jackson Hole Conference
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2 June 2017USNFPFOMC SEP dots were recently raised because unemployment rate fell to 4.6%. Further decline in unemployment rate may imply a faster pace of Fed hikes than what's currently priced in the market
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8 June 2017EZECB rate announcementThe question remains that if economic activity / inflation starts picking up in 2017, will ECB taper its QE? And how will political risks affect the price of euro fx?

Updated economic forecasts will be released at this meeting
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11 and 18 June 2017FranceLegislative electionsLikely to give a strong majority to the party of the newly-elected President
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14 June 2017USCPICurrent FOMC SEP dots show that there is still a minority dovish camp within the committee and the reason for the dove-hawk split is likely due to low inflation rate (dovish) and a tight labor market (hawkish).
If CPI number moves higher, then dovish camp may become concerned about Fed falling behind the curve causing a shift higher in dots plot and market repricing of rate hikes in 2017
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15 June 2017USFOMC rate announcement
If US labor market tightens further and/or inflation rising faster than expected and coupled with Trump's fiscal stimulus plans would likely mean that Fed is behind the curve and Fed may be forced to increase
the pace rate hiking cycle and this stregthens the USD and further tightens financial conditions globally. Consequently, this likely further worsens the economics in EMs and Asia

This meeting includes SEP and press conference by Fed chair
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15 June 2017UKBOEMPC outcome and minutes
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16 June 2017JapanBOJ rate announcementBOJ likely to stand pat throughout 2017 while maintaining yield curve control policy. Note that YC control policy (i.e. yield targeting to 'peg' 10y at 0.0%) is procyclical, which causally implies that if
growth / inflation dynamics improve, the 10y yield rises and BOJ is tasked to buy JGBs from local primary dealers to maintain the 'peg'. The converse is true
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3Q17
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July 2017
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DateCountryData / EventComments
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JulyUSHumphrey-Hawkins TestimonyYellen will testify on the US economy before congress (both to the House of Representatives and the Senate)
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7 to 8 July 2017G20G20 Leaders' SummitPossible topics of dicussion: Trump's policies, geopolitical tensions, rise of populism and protectionism
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20 July 2017JapanBOJ rate announcementBOJ likely to stand pat throughout 2017 while maintaining yield curve control policy. Note that YC control policy (i.e. yield targeting to 'peg' 10y at 0.0%) is procyclical, which causally implies that if
growth / inflation dynamics improve, the 10y yield rises and BOJ is tasked to buy JGBs from local primary dealers to maintain the 'peg'. The converse is true
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27 July 2017USFOMC rate announcement
If US labor market tightens further and/or inflation rising faster than expected and coupled with Trump's fiscal stimulus plans would likely mean that Fed is behind the curve and Fed may be forced to increase
the pace rate hiking cycle and this stregthens the USD and further tightens financial conditions globally. Consequently, this likely further worsens the economics in EMs and Asia
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Mid summer / mid fallUSHard debt ceilingThe issue of hard debt ceiling may surface in summer. Once the hard debt ceiling is in focus, the congress must raise / suspend / remove the debt ceiling so as not to risk default
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August 2017
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DateCountryData / EventComments
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AugustUSJackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium-
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August to OctoberGermany Federal electionThe street consensus is for Merkel to remain in power
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3 Aug 2017UKBOE MPCOutcome, Minutes and Inflation Report
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September 2017
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DateCountryData / EventComments
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AutumnChina19th National Party CongressAn important meeting to announce changes to the composition of the top leadership of the Chinese Communist Party, with a majority of the Politburo Standing Committee expected to retire at the congress
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7 Sep 2017EZECB rate announcementThe question remains that if economic activity / inflation starts picking up in 2017, will ECB taper its QE? And how will political risks affect the price of euro fx?

Updated economic forecasts will be released at this meeting
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14 Sep 2017UKBOEMPC outcome and minutes
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21 Sep 2017USFOMC rate announcement
If US labor market tightens further and/or inflation rising faster than expected and coupled with Trump's fiscal stimulus plans would likely mean that Fed is behind the curve and Fed may be forced to increase
the pace rate hiking cycle and this stregthens the USD and further tightens financial conditions globally. Consequently, this likely further worsens the economics in EMs and Asia

This meeting includes SEP and press conference by Fed chair
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21 Sep 2017JapanBOJ rate announcementBOJ likely to stand pat throughout 2017 while maintaining yield curve control policy. Note that YC control policy (i.e. yield targeting to 'peg' 10y at 0.0%) is procyclical, which causally implies that if
growth / inflation dynamics improve, the 10y yield rises and BOJ is tasked to buy JGBs from local primary dealers to maintain the 'peg'. The converse is true
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4Q17
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October 2017