SYGO Coronavirus Risk Estimator (make a copy)

	A	B	C	D	E	I	J	K	L
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2		TO USE:	Input your own values into any of the blue-highlighted boxes. These default example parameters are currently set to model "going to Costco in San Francisco on April 17, 2020."
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6		global parameters		what's this?	how this number was calculated	suggested parameter calculations
7		global parameters		what's this?	how this number was calculated
8		p_i =	0.002	The probability that any given person outside is infected.	Through the suggested calculation format over on the right.		calculate p_i:
9		p_hu_vs =	0.5	The probability that your hands remain uninfected given that you touch a surface contaminated with virus.	A highly approximate Fermi estimate.		region population:	881549	2019 est: https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/sanfranciscocountycalifornia
10		p_w =	0.000001	A catch-all term for wildcard fluctuations (fluid dynamics glitches, etc.) that were beyond the scope of this model.	A highly approximate Fermi estimate.		region number of active cases:	1137	April 18, 2020. https://missionlocal.org/2020/04/18-daily-figures-on-sf-coronavirus-cases-confirmed-cases/
11		p_w =	0.000001		A highly approximate Fermi estimate.		confirmed-to-latent multiplier:	10	approximate, based on estimation of under-testing
12							latent-to-asymptomatic multiplier:	0.18	source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7078829/
13		situation-specific parameters					p_i=	0.232%
14		situation-specific parameters				calculate N_s at a store:
15	surface-based:	N_s =	150	The number of surfaces you touch while outside.	Through the suggested calculation format over on the right.		num items you buy:	20
16		N_p_s =	0.9	The average number of people that also touched the surfaces you're touching, in the time since those surfaces were last sanitized.	Through the suggested calculation format over on the right.		N_s=	150	you have to touch each item at least twice to purchase it. plus, there are a fixed number of touches upon entering the store: doors, shopping cart, etc.
17						calculate N_p_s at a store:
18	warm-body-based:	r =	6	The distance, in feet, that you're standing away from the breathing person.	Recommended social distancing amount. Change to match your scenario.		store foot traffic since the last sanitization:	3600	open for 9hr, average 400 people per hour maybe (rough approximation)
19		N_b =	8	The average number of breath events per person you encountered. So, times they breathed or coughed on you during your interaction with them.	Change to match your scenario. 960 breaths an hour is the suggested rate on the right.		fraction of items in the store that the average patron probably touched:	0.00025	fermi estimate based on the size of the average costco
20		N_p_b =	100	The number of people that breathed on you.	Change to match your scenario. This seems like approximately how many people you would pass on a Costco trip.		N_p_s=	0.9
21		projectiness =	0.5	A scale factor describing the number of viral particles emitted (projected) by the breathing person, relative to a cough.	Set = 1 for a cough, 0.5 for normal breathing, 0.3 for t-shirt masks, and 0.1 for surgical masks.
22							calculate N_b:
23							human breaths per hour:	960
24							hours you hung out:	0.25
25		Infection Risk:	13.500%	Final SYGO estimator probability that you have coronavirus after this venture outside.			N_b=	240
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28	do not modify numbers below this row, they are calculation infrastructure
29		surface component:	0.865
30		breathing component:	1.00
31		airborne component:	0.00
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33		radius z score:	9.00
34		probability that N_v is below T_c:	1.00
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