Potential Impact of SB 193 on the New Hampshire General Fund
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Potential Impact of SB 193 on the New Hampshire General Fund
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Year 1Year 2 Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10
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Assumptions2018-192019-202020-212021-222022-232023-242025-262026-272027-282028-29
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demographic enrollment decline1.40%1.40%1.40%1.40%1.40%1.40%1.40%1.40%1.40%1.40%
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Average annual growth rate among among 6 comparable programs in 4 other states over 6-8 years 100.00%
(for reference only - not used in the calculations)
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projected participation September participation rate0.0050.0051.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%
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projected addtional mid-year participation 0.0050.0051.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%
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Average cost to the school district of an ESA grant$4,886$4,886$4,886$4,886$4,886$4,886$4,886$4,886$4,886$4,886
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stabilizataion figure0.00250.00250.00250.00250.00250.00250.00250.00250.00250.0025
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Assume ESA grant concentraton same as ETC grant concentration77%77%77%77%77%77%77%77%77%77%
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Franklin proportion of grants (starting with proporton of ETC grants)3.86%3.00%2.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%
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Franklin enrollment decline5.55%5.55%5.55%5.55%5.55%5.55%5.55%5.55%5.55%5.55%
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Manchester portion of grants (starting with proportion of ETC grants)13.77%13.77%13.77%13.77%13.77%13.77%13.77%13.77%13.77%13.77%
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Manchester Enrollment decline1.85%1.85%1.85%1.85%1.85%1.85%1.85%1.85%1.85%1.85%
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Statewide Impact
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Number of students, assuming established enrollment decilines167,641165,294162,980160,698158,448156,230154,043151,886149,760147,663
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Statewide if ESA grants were evenly distributedEnrollment Impact of SB 193
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Number of NH Public School Students at the beginning of the school year
167,641163,618161,327159,068156,841154,646152,481150,346148,241146,166
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Number of students lost to normal attrition-2,347-2,291-2,259-2,227-2,196-2,165-2,135-2,105-2,075-2,046
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Number of Sept. students leaving with an ESA grant-838.205-818-1,613-1,591-1,568-1,546-1,525-1,503-1,482-1,462
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Number of students leaving mid-year with an ESA grant-838.205-818-1,613-1,591-1,568-1,546-1,525-1,503-1,482-1,462
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Number of NH Public School Students, after ESA grants163,618159,691155,842153,660151,509149,388147,296145,234143,201141,196
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Enrollment Impact of SB 193-1676.41-1,636-3,227-3,181-3,137-3,093-3,050-3,007-2,965-2,923
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Cumulative Enrollment Impact of SB 193-3,313-6,539-9,720-12,857-15,950-19,000-22,007-24,972-27,895
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School District and General Fund Impact of SB 193 if grants were spread evenly over all districts
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New grants-$8,190,939-$7,994,357-$15,764,871-$15,544,163-$15,326,545-$15,111,973-$14,900,406-$14,691,800-$14,486,115-$14,283,309
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Followon grants from previous years-$8,190,939-$16,185,296-$31,950,167-$47,494,331-$54,629,936-$61,747,553-$60,883,087-$60,030,724-$59,190,294
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Total school budget for all 178 districts$3,000,000,000$3,000,000,000$3,000,000,000$3,000,000,000$3,000,000,000$3,000,000,000$3,000,000,000$3,000,000,000$3,000,000,000$3,000,000,000
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"Stabilization figure" of school budget (currently 1/4%)$7,500,000$7,500,000$7,500,000$7,500,000$7,500,000$7,500,000$7,500,000$7,500,000$7,500,000$7,500,000
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Total new and followon ESA grants-$8,190,939-$16,185,296-$31,950,167-$47,494,331-$62,820,876-$69,741,910-$76,647,959-$75,574,887-$74,516,839-$73,473,603
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Total General Fund obligation$690,939$8,685,296$24,450,167$39,994,331$55,320,876$62,241,910$69,147,959$68,074,887$67,016,839$65,973,603
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Sample districts
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FranklinFranklin
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Enrollment
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Number of NH Public School Students at the beginning of the school year
1,039917817707636569507448393342
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Number of students lost to normal attrition-58-51-45-39-35-32-28-25-22-19
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Number of Sept. students leaving with an ESA grant-32-25-32-16-16-15-15-15-15-15
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Number of students leaving mid-year with an ESA grant-32-25-32-16-16-15-15-15-15-15
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Number of NH Public School Students, after ESA grants917817707636569507448393342293
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Enrollment Impact of SB 193-65-49-65-32-31-31-30-30-30-29
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Cumulative Enrollment Impact of SB 193-65-114-178-210-242-272-303-333-363-392
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Budget
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New grants-$316,252-$239,831-$315,297-$155,442-$153,265-$151,120-$149,004-$146,918-$144,861-$142,833
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Followon grants from previous years-$316,252-$556,083-$871,381-$1,026,822-$863,835-$775,124-$608,831-$600,307-$591,903
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Budget$16,840,308$16,840,308$16,840,308$16,840,308$16,840,308$16,840,308$16,840,308$16,840,308$16,840,308$16,840,308
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"Stabilization figure" of school budget (currently 1/4%)$42,101$42,101$42,101$42,101$42,101$42,101$42,101$42,101$42,101$42,101
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Total new and followon ESA grants-$316,252-$556,083-$871,381-$1,026,822-$1,180,088-$1,014,955-$924,128-$755,749-$745,168-$734,736
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Total General Fund obligation$274,152$513,982$829,280$984,721$1,137,987$972,854$882,028$713,648$703,068$692,635
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Cumulative Cost to the General Fund$274,152$788,134$1,617,414$2,602,135$3,740,122$4,712,977$5,595,004$6,308,652$7,011,720$7,704,355
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ManchesterManchester
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Enrollment
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Number of NH Public School Students at the beginning of the school year
13,26212,78612,32411,65210,99810,3639,7459,1458,5617,995
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Number of students lost to normal attrition-245-237-228-216-203-192-180-169-158-148
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Number of Sept. students leaving with an ESA grant-115-113-222-219-216-213-210-207-204-201
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Number of students leaving mid-year with an ESA grant-115-113-222-219-216-213-210-207-204-201
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Number of NH Public School Students, after ESA grants12,78612,32411,65210,99810,3639,7459,1458,5617,9957,444
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Enrollment Impact of SB 193-231-225-444-438-432-426-420-414-408-403
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Cumulative Cost to the General Fund-230.86-456.17-900.50-1,338.60-1,770.57-2,196.49-2,616.45-3,030.53-3,438.82-3,841.38
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Budget
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New grants-$1,127,967-$1,100,896-$2,170,967-$2,140,573-$2,110,605-$2,081,057-$2,051,922-$2,023,195-$1,994,870-$1,966,942
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Followon grants from previous years-$1,127,967-$2,228,863-$4,399,830-$6,540,403-$7,523,041-$8,503,202-$8,384,157-$8,266,779-$8,151,044
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Budget$172,803,000$172,803,000$172,803,000$172,803,000$172,803,000$172,803,000$172,803,000$172,803,000$172,803,000$172,803,000
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"Stabilization figure" of school budget (currently 1/4%)$432,008$432,008$432,008$432,008$432,008$432,008$432,008$432,008$432,008$432,008
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Total new and followon ESA grants-$1,127,967-$2,228,863-$4,399,830-$6,540,403-$8,651,009-$9,604,098-$10,555,124-$10,407,353-$10,261,650-$10,117,987
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Total General Fund obligation$695,960$1,796,856$3,967,823$6,108,396$8,219,001$9,172,091$10,123,117$9,975,345$9,829,642$9,685,979
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Cumulative Cost to the General Fund$695,960$2,492,815$6,460,638$12,569,034$20,788,035$29,960,126$40,083,242$50,058,587$59,888,230$69,574,209
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The Finance Cmte should recommend ITL on SB 193
 
 
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