CfB_Analytics_NFL_QB-Value_2025.xlsx

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K
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2	CfB Analytics: 2025 QB Value
3	Full regular season. 29 quarterbacks with at least nine starts.
4	50 = average performance surplus at cap cost. Higher is better. Performance grade stays unchanged.
5	Prototype review edition. Prepared October 11, 2026.
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7	Value rank	Quarterback	Team	Performance grade	Starts	2025 cap hit	Cap share	Expected grade	Surplus (points)	Value grade	Log(cap share)

8	1	Drake Maye	NE	74.2	17	$8,327,219	2.98%	53.2	21.1	83.7	-3.5124
9	2	Brock Purdy	SF	69.9	9	$9,119,253	3.27%	53.4	16.6	76.5	-3.4215
10	3	Jordan Love	GB	68.2	15	$29,722,437	10.65%	56.2	12.0	69.2	-2.2400
11	4	Matthew Stafford	LA	65.4	17	$47,466,666	17.00%	57.4	8.1	62.9	-1.7719
12	5	Sam Darnold	SEA	61.4	17	$13,400,000	4.80%	54.3	7.1	61.4	-3.0367
13	6	Daniel Jones	IND	61.4	13	$14,600,000	5.23%	54.5	6.8	60.9	-2.9509
14	7	Josh Allen	BUF	62.4	16	$36,335,281	13.01%	56.7	5.6	59.0	-2.0391
15	8	C.J. Stroud	HOU	58.1	14	$9,894,339	3.54%	53.6	4.5	57.2	-3.3400
16	9	Bo Nix	DEN	55.9	17	$4,230,265	1.52%	51.5	4.4	57.0	-4.1897
17	10	Dak Prescott	DAL	61.7	17	$50,518,430	18.09%	57.5	4.2	56.7	-1.7096
18	11	Patrick Mahomes	KC	59.8	14	$28,062,269	10.05%	56.1	3.7	55.9	-2.2975
19	12	Jared Goff	DET	59.7	17	$32,600,000	11.68%	56.4	3.3	55.2	-2.1476
20	13	Jaxson Dart	NYG	53.0	12	$3,086,898	1.11%	50.8	2.3	53.6	-4.5048
21	14	Jalen Hurts	PHI	56.5	16	$21,869,800	7.83%	55.5	1.0	51.6	-2.5468
22	15	Tyler Shough	NO	50.5	9	$1,964,496	0.70%	49.7	0.8	51.3	-4.9567
23	16	Caleb Williams	CHI	52.6	17	$8,974,104	3.21%	53.3	-0.8	48.7	-3.4376
24	17	Michael Penix Jr.	ATL	50.9	9	$5,200,599	1.86%	52.0	-1.1	48.2	-3.9832
25	18	Trevor Lawrence	JAX	53.7	17	$17,000,000	6.09%	54.9	-1.1	48.2	-2.7987
26	19	Jacoby Brissett	ARI	50.5	12	$5,310,000	1.90%	52.1	-1.6	47.5	-3.9623
27	20	Aaron Rodgers	PIT	51.3	16	$14,150,000	5.07%	54.4	-3.2	44.9	-2.9822
28	21	Justin Herbert	LAC	52.7	16	$37,345,675	13.38%	56.8	-4.1	43.4	-2.0117
29	22	Lamar Jackson	BAL	52.3	13	$43,500,000	15.58%	57.1	-4.8	42.3	-1.8592
30	23	Bryce Young	CAR	48.6	16	$10,351,384	3.71%	53.7	-5.1	41.9	-3.2948
31	24	Baker Mayfield	TB	49.3	17	$26,475,000	9.48%	55.9	-6.6	39.4	-2.3557
32	25	Justin Fields	NYJ	45.5	9	$8,000,000	2.87%	53.1	-7.5	38.0	-3.5525
33	26	Tua Tagovailoa	MIA	48.0	14	$39,313,647	14.08%	56.9	-8.9	35.7	-1.9604
34	27	Geno Smith	LV	38.3	15	$40,000,000	14.33%	56.9	-18.6	20.3	-1.9430
35	28	Cam Ward	TEN	34.7	17	$8,879,928	3.18%	53.3	-18.6	20.3	-3.4481
36	29	J.J. McCarthy	MIN	32.7	10	$4,966,999	1.78%	51.9	-19.2	19.3	-4.0291
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39	Positive surplus: above the fitted expectation at that cap cost. Negative surplus: below it.
40	This is a relative, retrospective measure. It does not estimate a fair salary or Super Bowl probability.
41	Rank formulas update if inputs change. Re-sort the table by Value grade to reorder the rows.
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