2014 Senate
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https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Ib27G_vDNtQDNLDR8rXiU2LJLCn7Hspd4g5SKtQw1CM/pub
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http://www.politico.com/2014-election/results/map/governor#.VpTj3RUrKUk
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2012 Presidential True Vote Model
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http://enr.ncsbe.gov/?election_dt=11/04/2014&county_id=0&office=FED&contest=0NC 2014 Senate
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2014/exit-polls?year=2014&type=senate&filter=NC
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Election2014NC Senate
Returning voters based on 2012 Presidential
Recorded
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Method (1 or 2)
1
Recorded
True Vote Model
Recorded vote match
Exit Poll (adjusted to match recorded vote)
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Prior election
201220142012RecordedVotesAliveReturnVotesPctHaganWillisOther
Turnout
HaganWillisOther
PARTY-ID
PctHaganWillisOther
8
DemocratObamaHaganObama48.4%2,1782,1351,2811,28144.0%95.0%3.0%2.0%60%Obama89.2%7.8%3.0%
Democrat
36.0%91.0%8.0%1%
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RepublicanRomneyWillisRomney50.4%2,2702,2251,3351,33545.9%7.0%91.0%2.0%60%Romney7.0%90.0%3.0%
Republican
35.0%6.0%93.0%1%
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OtherOtherHoughOther1.3%575633331.1%48.0%42.0%10.0%60%Other49.0%48.0%3.0%
Independent
29.0%42.0%49.0%9%
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Total votes45052910
DNV (new)
--2619.0%45.0%45.0%10.0%DNV47.0%42.0%11.0%
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2012ObamaRomneyOtherMarginShare47.3%49.0%3.7%Share100%47.0%49.6%3.3%
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Recorded 48.4%50.4%1.3%TOTAL4,5054,4152,6492,910
True Share
49.6%47.6%2.8%2.0%Vote1,3751,427108Vote2,9101,3691,44597
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True Vote51.4%47.3%1.3%64.6%
Vote (000)
1,4441,3858259
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CensusTotalHaganWillisOther
Actual registration Recorded Vote match
Actual registration True Vote match
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Votes Cast3170TVM29101,443.71,384.681.8
Recorded
47.3%48.8%3.7%-1.6%PctHaganWillisOtherPctHaganWillisOther
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Obama60%
Uncounted
260156.0104.00.0Vote1,3751,421109-45
Democrat
41.7%64.6%32.4%3%
Democrat
41.7%86.6%12.4%1%
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Romney60%Cast31701,599.71,488.681.8
Republican
30.4%12%85%3%
Republican
30.4%6.0%93.0%1%
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Other60%Share50.5%47.0%2.6%
Independent
27.8%60%34%6%
Independent
27.8%42.0%49.0%9%
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21
Dem % Unctd
75%
Sensitivity Analysis
Share100%47.3%48.9%3.8%Share100%49.6%47.2%3.2%
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Voter Mortality
2.0%
Based on
2012
Recorded
Vote2,9101,3751,423111Vote2,9101,4441,37394
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Margin of Error
3.0%
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HaganHagan share of New voters (DNV)HaganHagan share of returning Obama votersHagan
Recorded
...........
Obama share ..................
1.517147766
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CALCULATION METHODShare of41%43%45%47%49%
Share of
91%93%95%97%99%
Share of
48.4%49.4%50.4%51.4%52.4%0.04587552891
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Returning voters based on priorRomney Vote Share
Romney
Vote Share
Romney
Vote Share0.8647742268
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1 Recorded vote9%50.2%50.3%50.5%50.7%50.9%9%48.8%49.6%50.5%51.4%52.3%9%50.5%51.3%52.1%52.9%53.7%0.4583303402
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2 True Vote8%49.7%49.9%50.1%50.2%50.4%8%48.3%49.2%50.1%50.9%51.8%8%50.1%50.9%51.7%52.4%53.2%0.4404886825
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7%49.3%49.4%49.6%49.8%50.0%7%47.8%48.7%49.6%50.5%51.4%7%49.6%50.4%51.2%52.0%52.8%0.01146963711
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6%48.8%49.0%49.2%49.3%49.5%6%47.4%48.3%49.2%50.0%50.9%6%49.2%50.0%50.8%51.6%52.4%0.08971134021
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SummaryHaganMargin5%48.3%48.5%48.7%48.9%49.1%5%46.9%47.8%48.7%49.6%50.5%5%48.7%49.5%50.3%51.2%52.0%
32
Recorded47.3%-45
Margin (000)
Margin (000)
Margin (000)
33
True vote49.6%599%921021121231339%10611121642159%112158204249295
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CVS8%657586961078%-1735861371888%86132178224270
35
Low Turnout49.6%887%38495970807%-438591101627%59106152199246
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Equal Turnout
49.6%886%11223243536%-70-1932841356%3280127174221
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Census uncounted
50.5%1025%-15-5616275%-97-466571085%653101149196
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Avg(True:Census)
49.8%84
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Obama Returning Voter TurnoutHaganHagan share of returning Obama voters
Recorded
...........
Obama share ..................
1.517
41
Romney58%59%60%61%62%
Share of
91%93%95%97%99%Obama48.4%49.4%50.4%51.4%52.4%0.046
42
Turnout Vote Share
Romney
Hagan Popular Vote Win Probability
Turnout
Hagan Vote Share1.441
43
58%49.5%49.8%50.2%50.6%50.9%9%58.9%91.5%99.4%100.0%100.0%62%51.1%51.9%52.8%53.6%54.4%0.458
44
59%49.2%49.5%49.9%50.3%50.6%8%35.4%78.1%97.3%99.9%100.0%61%50.4%51.2%52.0%52.8%53.6%0.440
45
60%48.9%49.2%49.6%50.0%50.3%7%16.5%57.0%90.8%99.3%100.0%60%49.6%50.4%51.2%52.0%52.8%0.011
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61%48.6%49.0%49.3%49.7%50.1%6%5.8%33.6%76.6%97.0%99.9%59%48.9%49.6%50.4%51.2%52.0%0.090
47
62%48.3%48.7%49.0%49.4%49.8%5%1.5%15.3%55.1%89.9%99.2%58%48.1%48.9%49.7%50.4%51.2%
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Margin
Margin (000)
49
58%50719311413662%146195243291339
50
59%3355769711961%103150198245292
51
60%1638598010260%59106152199246
52
61%02142648559%1561107153199
53
62%-17425476858%-281762107152
54
55
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Registered
4,779SplitVoterTurnoutVotesHaganWillisOther
57
Votes2,910Dem41.7%1,99361.0%1,21586.6%12.4%1.0%
58
Other3.74%Rep30.4%1,45361.0%8866.0%93.0%1.0%
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Turnout60.9%Ind27.8%1,32960.9%80942.0%49.0%9.0%
60
Increment2.00%Total100%4,77461.0%2,91049.6%47.1%3.2%
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Sensitivity Analysis
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Hagan% DemHagan% IndHagan% Ind
63
% Ind78.6%80.6%82.6%84.6%86.6%% Rep34.0%36.0%38.0%40.0%42.0%% Dem34.0%36.0%38.0%40.0%42.0%
64
HaganHaganHagan
65
8.0%46.9%47.8%48.6%49.4%50.3%8.0%48.0%48.6%49.1%49.7%50.3%88.6%48.3%48.8%49.4%49.9%50.5%
66
6.0%46.3%47.1%48.0%48.8%49.6%6.0%47.4%48.0%48.5%49.1%49.6%86.6%47.4%48.0%48.5%49.1%49.6%
67
4.0%45.7%46.5%47.4%48.2%49.0%4.0%46.8%47.4%47.9%48.5%49.0%84.6%46.6%47.1%47.7%48.3%48.8%
68
69
Margin (000)
Margin (000)
Margin (000)
70
8.0%-70-2227751248.0%-627599212488.6%84072105137
71
6.0%-106-57-940886.0%-41-924568886.6%-41-9245688
72
4.0%-141-93-444534.0%-76-44-12215384.6%-90-57-25840
73
74
75
76
HaganDem
% Turnout
HaganDem
% Turnout
HaganDem
% Turnout
77
% Ind53.0%55.0%57.0%59.0%61.0%% Rep53.0%55.0%57.0%59.0%61.0%% Dem53.0%55.0%57.0%59.0%61.0%
78
HaganHaganHagan
79
44.0%45.5%46.6%47.8%49.0%50.2%8.0%45.5%46.7%47.9%49.1%50.3%88.6%45.6%46.8%48.1%49.3%50.5%
80
42.0%44.9%46.1%47.3%48.5%49.6%6.0%44.9%46.1%47.3%48.5%49.6%86.6%44.9%46.1%47.3%48.5%49.6%
81
40.0%44.3%45.5%46.7%47.9%49.1%4.0%44.3%45.5%46.7%47.9%49.0%84.6%44.2%45.3%46.5%47.7%48.8%
82
83
Margin (000)
Margin (000)
Margin (000)
84
44.0%-155-86-17521218.0%-152-83-145512488.6%-145-75-466137
85
42.0%-188-119-5019886.0%-188-119-50198886.6%-188-119-501988
86
40.0%-220-151-82-13564.0%-223-154-85-165384.6%-230-162-95-2840
87
88
Haganwins
89
41
of 90 scenarios
90
45.6%
91
92
93
94
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2014/exit-polls?year=2014&type=senate&filter=NC
95
96
NC 2014MoE
97
Exit Poll2783respondents2.41%
98
HaganTillisHaugh
99
White74%33%62%4%
100
Black21%96%3%1%
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