Raiden Network - Micropayments Valuation Model
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README
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[MARKET VALUE PER TOKEN] 2018 =
DISCOUNT [TOKEN UTILITY VALUE] from [END YEAR]
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[TOKEN UTILITY VALUE] =
[MONETARY BASE] / [TOKENS IN CIRCULATION]
Raiden Network participants
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where [MONETARY BASE] =
[ON-CHAIN VOLUME]/[VELOCITY] of RDN tokens
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- inputs highlighted in blue are assumptions
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[TOKENS IN CIRCULATION]Token Economics
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Protocol typePublic
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Consensus mechanismUniversal Payment Channels
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Total tokens to ever exist100,000,000
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Tokens held by the foundation34,000,00034.00%
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Tokens held in escrow16,000,00016.00%
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Tokens currently in circulation50,000,00050.00%
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Tokens released from escrow to foundation (per month)
TBD - i am excluding calculations about tokens put into circulation by the team bc theres little information disclosed about this.
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Tokens sold into circulation by the foundation (per month, first 5 years)TBD
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Tokens sold into circulation by foundation (per month, after 5 years)TBD
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ASSUMPTIONS:
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[VELOCITY]18assumed high velocity because of high frequency in micro payments. Since Raiden Network will only be temporarily storing value within it's off-chain payment channels, the monetary base necessary to support Raiden Network economy will equal to the volume within open channels divided by velocity.
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Percent of tokens held as a long term investment - not in circulation60%
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Percent of tokens Bonded by Nodes25%
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Decrease in percent of RDN that is held as an investment2%
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Token Distribution20182019202020212022202320242025202620272028
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RDN released at launch50,000,000
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RDN released into circulation from the foundation that year00000000000
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RDN in circulation after release from foundation50,000,00050,000,00050,000,00050,000,00050,000,00050,000,00050,000,00050,000,00050,000,00050,000,00050,000,000
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% of RDN that is held as investment - not in circulation60%58.00%56.00%54.00%52.00%50.00%48.00%46.00%44.00%42.00%40.00%
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% of RDN bonded25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%
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[TOKENS IN CIRCULATION]7,500,0008,500,0009,500,00010,500,00011,500,00012,500,00013,500,00014,500,00015,500,00016,500,00017,500,000
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[ON-CHAIN VOLUME]Addressable Market
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Gaming micropayments market
please feel free to download and plug in your own assumptions, this is only meant to help you better understand RDN token economics.
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Small-value transfers market$500,000,000,000
still doing research on this and seeing different figures, please reach out if you have concrete data.
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ASSUMPTIONS:
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CAGR for Annual micropayments market12%
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% of global micropayments traffic applicable to RDN50%
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Base year for the adoption curve2018Adoption curve201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028
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Saturation %10Output0.19%0.25%0.33%0.44%0.58%0.77%1.00%1.30%1.66%2.11%2.64%3.25%
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Start of fast growth2023% Penetration0.00%0.06%0.14%0.25%0.39%0.58%0.81%1.11%1.48%1.92%2.45%3.06%
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Take over time15Saturation101010101010101010101010
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Network activity20182019202020212022202320242025202620272028
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Annual global transactions560,000,000,000627,200,000,000702,464,000,000786,759,680,000881,170,841,600986,911,342,5921,105,340,703,7031,237,981,588,1471,386,539,378,7251,552,924,104,1721,739,274,996,673
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Annual global transactions available to RDN280,000,000,000313,600,000,000351,232,000,000393,379,840,000440,585,420,800493,455,671,296552,670,351,852618,990,794,074693,269,689,363776,462,052,086869,637,498,336
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% of transactions facilitated by RDN0.06%0.14%0.25%0.39%0.58%0.81%1.11%1.48%1.92%2.45%3.06%
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[ON-CHAIN VOLUME] aka GDP facilitated by RDN174,682,413454,015,336888,789,0411,551,609,7242,544,402,0054,006,937,2346,125,162,7849,136,925,72513,331,371,32419,037,606,32226,599,432,837
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[MONETARY BASE] = GDP facilitated / Velocity9,704,57825,223,07449,377,16986,200,540141,355,667222,607,624340,286,821507,606,985740,631,7401,057,644,7961,477,746,269
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[TOKEN UTILITY VALUE] - this does not equal market value$1.29$2.97$5.20$8.21$12.29$17.81$25.21$35.01$47.78$64.10$84.44
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...and now we can discount the future utility
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[END YEAR]2028
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Years between 2018 and [END YEAR]10
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Discount rate25%
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[MARKET VALUE PER TOKEN] 2018$9.07
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