ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
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Probabilites of scenarios
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P(Scenario 1) [Total failure; incubator doesn't lead to any new top charities]30%
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P(Scenario 2) [Incubator leads to 1.5 new top charities, with cost-effectiveness similar to AMF]50%
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Conditional on Scenario 2, Probability of full RFMF being utilized where counterfactual for that spending is 2.5x cash
10%
Sum of scenario 2 sub-conditions
Sum of all 4 conditions
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Conditional on Scenario 2, Probability of half RFMF being utilized where counterfactual for that spending is 2.5x cash
0%100%100%
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Conditional on Scenario 2, Probability of no RFMF being utilized (because counterfactual is 5x cash) [This scenario is essentially failure]
90%
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P(Scenario 3) [Incubator leads to 1 new top charity with cost-effectiveness 2x AMF]15%
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P(Scenario 4) [Incubator has huge upside impact, with cost-effectiveness chosen below]5%
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Misc Key inputs
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Full cost of EAB to create top charities assuming it doesn't totally fail (cost for scenarios 2-4)$15,000,000
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Full amount of annual RFMF that one new top charity from EAB will have$10,000,000
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Default number of years that new top charity RFMF will be utilized10
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In huge upside scenario (scenario 4), how many times more cost-effective is EAB, relative to cash?
25
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Bottom line estimates
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Bottom line figure: EAB grant is X times more cost-effective than cash8.7
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What % of total benefits is coming from each scenario?
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Scenario 10%
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Scenario 216%
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Scenario 354%Sum
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Scenario 430%100%
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