2016 GOP

	A	B	C	J	K	L	M	N	Q	S	U	V	W	X	AA	AB	AC	AD	AE	AJ	AK	AM	AN	AO	AP
1	PRIMARIES AND CAUCUSES					%VOTES [you edit these!!!]			total votes	Delegates	STATE DELEGATES FORECAST				ACTUAL STATE DELEGATES							ROLLING DELEGATE FORECAST
2	Date	Type	State		Trump	Cruz	Rubio	Kasich	(check)	available	Trump	Cruz	Rubio	Kasich	Trump	Cruz	Rubio	Kasich		Unbound	Supers	Trump	Cruz	Rubio	Kasich

3	01/02/2016	PR0	Iowa	2	24.3	27.7	23.1	1.9	77.0	30	7	8	7	1	7	8	7	1				7	8	7	1
4	09/02/2016	PR10	New Hampshire	1	35.4	11.7	10.6	15.8	73.5	23	12	3	2	0	11	3	2	4				18	11	9	5
5	20/02/2016	WTA2	South Carolina	1	32.5	22.3	22.5	7.6	84.9	50	42	4	4	0	50	0	0	0				68	11	9	5
6	23/02/2016	PR3	Nevada	1	45.9	21.4	23.9	3.6	94.8	30	15	7	8	1	14	6	7	1				82	17	16	6
7	01/03/2016	PR10	Minnesota	3	21.3	29.0	36.5	5.8	92.6	38	9	13	16	0	8	13	17	0				90	30	33	6
8	01/03/2016	PR13	Alaska	2	33.5	36.4	15.1	4.1	89.1	28	11	12	5	0	11	12	5	0				101	42	38	6
9	01/03/2016	WT2C20&	Georgia	1	38.8	23.5	24.6	5.6	92.5	76	40	17	18	0	42	18	16	0				143	60	54	6
10	01/03/2016	PR5	Massachusetts	1	49.3	9.6	17.8	18.0	94.7	42	22	4	8	8	22	4	8	8				165	64	62	14
11	01/03/2016	PR15&	Oklahoma	2	28.3	34.4	26.0	3.6	92.3	43	13	17	12	0	13	15	12	0		3		178	79	74	14
12	01/03/2016	PR20#	Tennessee	1	38.9	24.7	21.2	5.3	90.1	58	30	15	12	0	33	16	9	0				211	95	83	14
13	01/03/2016	PR20&	Vermont	1	32.7	9.7	19.3	30.4	92.1	16	8	0	0	8	8	0	0	8				219	95	83	22
14	01/03/2016	PR0	Virginia	1	34.7	16.9	31.9	9.4	92.9	49	17	8	16	5	17	8	16	5				236	103	99	27
15	01/03/2016	WT2C20&	Alabama	1	43.4	21.1	18.7	4.4	87.6	50	34	13	3	0	36	13	1	0				272	116	100	27
16	01/03/2016	WT2C15&	Arkansas	1	32.8	30.5	24.9	3.7	91.9	40	15	14	11	0	16	15	9	0				288	131	109	27
17	01/03/2016	WT2C20&	Texas	2	26.8	43.8	17.7	4.3	92.6	155	44	99	11	1	48	104	3	0				336	235	112	27
18	01/03/2016	SPUD	North Dakota	0	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	0.0	28					1	10	0	0		17		337	245	112	27
19	01/03/2016	SPUD	Colorado	0	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	0.0	37						34				3		337	279	112	27
20	05/03/2016	PR10&	Maine	2	32.6	45.9	8.0	12.2	98.7	23	8	12	0	3	9	12	0	2				346	291	112	29
21	05/03/2016	PR10	Kansas	2	23.3	48.2	16.7	10.7	98.9	40	9	21	6	4	9	24	6	1				355	315	118	30
22	05/03/2016	PR20*	Louisiana	1	41.4	37.8	11.2	6.4	96.8	46	19	17	0	0	18	18	5	0		5		373	333	123	30
23	05/03/2016	PR5	Kentucky	1	35.9	31.6	16.4	14.4	98.3	46	17	15	8	7	17	15	7	7				390	348	130	37
24	06/03/2016	PR20&	Puerto Rico	3	13.1	8.6	71.0	1.3	94	23	0	0	23	0	0	0	23	0				390	348	153	37
25	08/03/2016	PR15&	Michigan	1	36.5	24.9	9.3	24.3	95	59	25	17	0	17	25	17	0	17				415	365	153	54
26	08/03/2016	PR20&	Idaho	2	28.1	45.4	15.9	7.5	96.9	32	12	20	0	0	12	20	0	0				427	385	153	54
27	08/03/2016	PR0	Hawaii	1	42.4	32.7	13.2	10.6	98.9	19	8	6	3	2	11	7	1	0				438	392	154	54
28	08/03/2016	WT2C15	Mississippi	1	47.3	36.3	5.1	8.8	97.5	40	23	16	0	0	25	15	0	0				463	407	154	54
29	10/03/2016	???	Virgin Islands	0	n/a	n/a	n/a	0.0	0	6				0	1	1	2	0		2	3	464	408	156	54
30	12/03/2016	SPUD	Guam	0	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	0	6					0	1	0	0		5	3	464	409	156	54
31	12/03/2016	PR15&	DC	3	13.7	12.3	37.4	35.8	99.2	19	0	0	10	9	0	0	10	9				464	409	166	63
32	15/03/2016	WTA	Florida	1	45.8	17.1	27.0	6.8	96.7	99	99	0	0	0	99	0	0	0				563	409	166	63
33	15/03/2016	WTA2	Missouri	1	40.8	40.7	6.1	10.1	97.7	52	32	20	0	0	37	15	0	0				600	424	166	63
34	15/03/2016	WTA	Ohio	4	35.7	13.1	2.9	46.8	98.5	66	0	0	0	66	0	0	0	66				600	424	166	129
35	15/03/2016	WTA	Mariana Islands	1	73.0	24.0	1.0	2.0	100	9	9	0	0	0	9	0	0	0				609	424	166	129
36	15/03/2016	WTA2	Illinois	1	38.8	30.3	8.7	19.7	97.5	69	48	16	0	4	54	9	0	6				663	433	166	135
37	15/03/2016	PR0	North Carolina	1	40.2	36.8	7.7	12.7	97.4	72	29	26	6	9	29	27	6	9				692	460	172	144
38	22/03/2016	WTA	Arizona	1	47.1	24.9	13.3	10.0	95.3	58	58	0	0	0	58	0	0	0				750	460	172	144
39	22/03/2016	SPUD	American Samoa	0	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	0	6					0	0	0	0		6	3	750	460	172	144
40	22/03/2016	PR15&	Utah	2	14.0	69.2		16.8	100	40	0	40	0	0	0	40	0	0				750	500	172	144
41	05/04/2016	WTA2	Wisconsin	2	35.1	48.2	1.0	14.1	98.4	42	7	35	0	0	6	36	0	0				756	536	172	144
42	16/04/2016	SPUD	Wyoming	0	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	0.0	26					1	23	1	0		1	3	757	559	173	144
43	19/04/2016	WT2C20&	New York	1	60.5	14.5		25.1	100.1	95	80	4	0	11	90	0	0	5				847	559	173	149
44	26/04/2016	WTA2	Maryland	1	54.5	18.9		23.0	96.4	38	35	1	0	2	38	0	0	0				885	559	173	149
45	26/04/2016	WTAC20&	Connecticut	1	57.9	11.7		28.4	98.0	28	26	0	0	2	28	0	0	0				913	559	173	149
46	26/04/2016	WTA	Delaware	1	60.8	15.9		20.3	97.0	16	16	0	0	0	16	0	0	0				929	559	173	149
47	26/04/2016	WTA/SPUD	Pennsylvania	1	56.7	21.6		19.4	97.7	71	17	0	0	0	17	0	0	0		54		946	559	173	149
48	26/04/2016	PR10	Rhode Island	1	57.9	15.8		26.3	100.0	19	11	3	0	5	11	3	0	5				957	562	173	154
49	03/05/2016	WTA2	Indiana	1	26.0	17.0		1.0	44	57	51	6	0	0								1008	568	173	154
50	10/05/2016	AL2	West Virginia	1	16.0	12.5		3.5	32	34	21	13	0	1								1029	580	173	155
51	10/05/2016	WTA	Nebraska	2		51			51	36	0	36	0	0								1029	616	173	155
52	17/05/2016	PR4	Oregon	2	20	50		30	100	28	6	14	0	8								1034	630	173	163
53	24/05/2016	WT2C20	Washington	2	20	50		30	100	44	6	27	0	11								1040	657	173	175
54	07/06/2016	WTA2	California	1	49.0	23.0		21.0	93	172	148	14	0	11								1188	671	173	185
55	07/06/2016	WTA	Montana	2		51			51	27	0	27	0	0								1188	698	173	185
56	07/06/2016	WTA	New Jersey	1	38.0	10.0		8.0	56	51	51	0	0	0								1239	698	173	185
57	07/06/2016	PR15	New Mexico	2	24.0	25.0		4.0	53	24	12	12	0	0								1250	710	173	185
58	07/06/2016	WTA	South Dakota	2	0.0	51.0	0.0	0.0	51	29	0	29	0	0								1250	739	173	185
59
60								Convention Totals
61							Elected	Delegates	2364		1250	739	173	185	957	562	173	154		96	12	Others	delegates
62											Trump	Cruz	Rubio	Kasich								Carson	9	out
63							Unbound	Delegates	96		WINNER											Bush	4	out
64	Version 3.0																					Fiorina	1	out
65	RodCrosby						Super	Delegates	12		0	0	0	0	(Super Delegates declared so far - see "Supers" worksheet)							Paul	1	out
66	14/03/2016																					Huckabee	1	out
67								Total	2472		1250	739	173	185
68											to include the SPUDs in the forecast, using a hypothetical proportional allocation, select "Y"
69							Winning	Post	1237		FORECAST: CLEAR WINNER								Y
70																			Y
71											NB: approximately 100 'unbound' delegates are in the mix, so we will have to keep an keen update for the SPUD states in the ACTUAL column
72
73	This sheet is to play around in, with user generated data. Please do have a play! The "Auto" sheet contains actual polling data, automatically updated, and is intended to be the main point of interest. The "History" sheet should be of interest also, intending to track the forecast. If anyone can think of further enhancements, give me a shout on PB, or using the CHAT feature here.				Instructions: just enter your forecast votes or polling data for the four main candidates in the forthcoming primaries. {and check total doesn't exceed 100%}
74
75					The sheet will attempt to forecast the state result delegate outcome, by modelling the particular electoral system employed in the state, together with the overall GOP forecast
76					see
77					http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/
78					The overall forecast will be improved with actual data in the fullness of time, as states are declared.
79
80					Probably the most useful is the rolling forecast, to the right of the sheet, which estimates who would be ahead in delegates at any point in time, and who would win.
81
82					NOTES:
83						WTA	Winner Takes All. Just what is says on the tin. Only one candidate obtains (all) delegates.
84						WTA2	Winner Takes All, but on two tiers. Statewide and by Congressional Districts. So we should expect some pluralism, with more than one candidate obtaining delegates, although quite lopsided. A cube law for the CDs should work well
85						WTAC	Winner takes all at CD only. No bound statewide delegates. [no state uses this in 2016]
86						WTACn	Winner Takes All at the CD tier, proportional at Statewide tier, threshold n. A cube law for the CDs should work well
87						WTACn&	As above, but with the kicker that if anyone gets >50% statewide, they get all the statewide delegates. It degenerates to WTA2 in that case. A cube law for the CDs
88						WT2Cn	Winner Takes 2 out of 3 delegates at the CD tier, proportional at Statewide tier, threshold n. A square law for the CDs should work well
89						WT2Cn&	As above, but with the kicker that if anyone gets >50% statewide, they get all the statewide delegates.
90						PRn	Some kind of "proportional" allocation. The details vary slightly state to state. The n is the threshold for receiving any delegates, leading to very DISproportional results in some cases. *NB Louisiana's unalocated delegates are 'unbound'
91						PRn&	As above, but with the kicker that if anyone gets >50%, either statewide or in a CD it becomes Winner Takes All in that tier/CD.
92						PRn#	(Tennessee) As above, but the WTA doesn't kick in until 66% (unlikely)
93						AL2	"at large" on two tiers. Instead of the candidates, delegates themselves are voted for. Will model this as a square law in the absence of a better idea.
94						SPUD	Straw-poll and/or Unbound delegates. There is no formula available to forecast the delegate outcome based on the votes, although many commentators used PR for example. That outcome may change, however.
95							There are many fewer of these cases than in 2012.
96						???	some kind of "at large" allocation, essentially unmodellable, e.g. Virgin Islands
97
98					STATE DELEGATES FORECAST				this is the ex-ante forecast based on the rule modelled above for each state. The inputs could be opinion polls or the final voting percentages.
99
100					ACTUAL STATE DELEGATES				this is the actual ex-post delegate allocation. These may not be finalized until some considerable time after the event.