[Shared] 2020–2022 Impact evaluation (working sheet)

	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K
1
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3		Best-guess model	Conservative model
4	Description of inputs	Best-guess inputs	Conservative inputs
5	Average recorded donation (2022 USD)	4132	4132
6	Recording coefficient	1.27	1.00
7	Effectiveness coefficient	0.81	0.67
8	Counterfactual coefficient	0.26	0.20
9	Yearly factor for time discounting	0.965	0.95
10	Average lifespan of a pledge (years)	33	33
11	Key outputs	Value	Value
12	Value of a pledge	$21,755	$8,990
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16	Years since pledge	Expected $ donated in year	Time discounting (best-guess)	Time discounting (conservative)	Time discounted $ (best-guess)	Time discounted $ (conservative)	Include year? (best-guess)	Include year (conservative)	Cumulative expected donations (recorded, discounted, best-guess)	Cumulative expected donations (recorded, discounted, conservative)
17	0	4132	100.00%	100.00%	4132	4132	Yes	Yes	$4,132	$4,132
18	1	4132	96.50%	95.00%	3987	3925	Yes	Yes	$8,119	$8,057
19	2	4132	93.12%	90.25%	3848	3729	Yes	Yes	$11,967	$11,787
20	3	4132	89.86%	85.74%	3713	3543	Yes	Yes	$15,680	$15,329
21	4	4132	86.72%	81.45%	3583	3366	Yes	Yes	$19,264	$18,695
22	5	4132	83.68%	77.38%	3458	3197	Yes	Yes	$22,721	$21,892
23	6	4132	80.75%	73.51%	3337	3037	Yes	Yes	$26,058	$24,929
24	7	4132	77.93%	69.83%	3220	2886	Yes	Yes	$29,278	$27,815
25	8	4132	75.20%	66.34%	3107	2741	Yes	Yes	$32,385	$30,556
26	9	4132	72.57%	63.02%	2999	2604	Yes	Yes	$35,384	$33,160
27	10	4132	70.03%	59.87%	2894	2474	Yes	Yes	$38,277	$35,634
28	11	4132	67.58%	56.88%	2792	2350	Yes	Yes	$41,070	$37,985
29	12	4132	65.21%	54.04%	2695	2233	Yes	Yes	$43,764	$40,217
30	13	4132	62.93%	51.33%	2600	2121	Yes	Yes	$46,364	$42,339
31	14	4132	60.73%	48.77%	2509	2015	Yes	Yes	$48,874	$44,354
32	15	4132	58.60%	46.33%	2421	1914	Yes	Yes	$51,295	$46,268
33	16	4132	56.55%	44.01%	2337	1819	Yes	Yes	$53,632	$48,087
34	17	4132	54.57%	41.81%	2255	1728	Yes	Yes	$55,887	$49,814
35	18	4132	52.66%	39.72%	2176	1641	Yes	Yes	$58,063	$51,455
36	19	4132	50.82%	37.74%	2100	1559	Yes	Yes	$60,162	$53,015
37	20	4132	49.04%	35.85%	2026	1481	Yes	Yes	$62,189	$54,496
38	21	4132	47.32%	34.06%	1955	1407	Yes	Yes	$64,144	$55,903
39	22	4132	45.67%	32.35%	1887	1337	Yes	Yes	$66,031	$57,240
40	23	4132	44.07%	30.74%	1821	1270	Yes	Yes	$67,852	$58,510
41	24	4132	42.53%	29.20%	1757	1206	Yes	Yes	$69,609	$59,717
42	25	4132	41.04%	27.74%	1696	1146	Yes	Yes	$71,305	$60,863
43	26	4132	39.60%	26.35%	1636	1089	Yes	Yes	$72,941	$61,952
44	27	4132	38.22%	25.03%	1579	1034	Yes	Yes	$74,520	$62,986
45	28	4132	36.88%	23.78%	1524	983	Yes	Yes	$76,044	$63,969
46	29	4132	35.59%	22.59%	1470	934	Yes	Yes	$77,515	$64,902
47	30	4132	34.34%	21.46%	1419	887	Yes	Yes	$78,934	$65,789
48	31	4132	33.14%	20.39%	1369	843	Yes	Yes	$80,303	$66,632
49	32	4132	31.98%	19.37%	1321	800	Yes	Yes	$81,624	$67,432
50	33	4132	30.86%	18.40%	1275	760	No	No	$82,899	$68,192
51	34	4132	29.78%	17.48%	1231	722	No	No	$84,130	$68,915
52	35	4132	28.74%	16.61%	1187	686	No	No	$85,317	$69,601
53	36	4132	27.73%	15.78%	1146	652	No	No	$86,463	$70,253
54	37	4132	26.76%	14.99%	1106	619	No	No	$87,569	$70,872
55	38	4132	25.82%	14.24%	1067	588	No	No	$88,636	$71,461
56	39	4132	24.92%	13.53%	1030	559	No	No	$89,666	$72,020
57	40	4132	24.05%	12.85%	994	531	No	No	$90,660	$72,551
58	41	4132	23.21%	12.21%	959	504	No	No	$91,618	$73,055
59	42	4132	22.39%	11.60%	925	479	No	No	$92,544	$73,534
60	43	4132	21.61%	11.02%	893	455	No	No	$93,437	$73,990
61	44	4132	20.85%	10.47%	862	433	No	No	$94,299	$74,422
62	45	4132	20.12%	9.94%	832	411	No	No	$95,130	$74,833
63	46	4132	19.42%	9.45%	802	390	No	No	$95,933	$75,223
64	47	4132	18.74%	8.97%	774	371	No	No	$96,707	$75,594
65	48	4132	18.08%	8.53%	747	352	No	No	$97,454	$75,947
66	49	4132	17.45%	8.10%	721	335	No	No	$98,175	$76,281
67	50	4132	16.84%	7.69%	696	318	No	No	$98,871	$76,599
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