| A | B | C | D | E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | We invite readers to make their own copy and play around with the estimates and assumptions | ||||
2 | Name | Estimate type | Value | How we made the estimate | Links to analysis |
3 | Key results | ||||
4 | GWWC's giving multiplier 2020-2022 - For each dollar of cost, how many dollars GWWC caused to go to highly effective charities in 2020-2022 (in 2022 USD) | Best-guess | 30 | Divide our best-guess estimate of highly effective donations caused by GWWC in 2020-2022 by our estimate of GWWC's costs in that period. | Link |
5 | Conservative | 9 | Divide our conservative estimate of highly effective donations caused by GWWC in 2020-2022 by our estimate of GWWC's costs in that period. | ||
6 | Value generated for highly effective charities by GWWC 2020-2022 - How many dollars GWWC caused to go to highly effective charities with our work in 2020-2022 (in 2022 USD) | Best-guess | $61,906,634 | Take a weighted average of the two best-guess estimates we have for highly effective donations caused through our pledges — weighing the estimate via pledge donations twice as heavily as the estimate via new pledges — and add our best guess for non-pledge highly effective donations GWWC caused. Then subtract our best guess of labour opportunity costs. | Link |
7 | Conservative | $19,723,101 | Take a weighted average of the two conservative estimates we have for highly effective donations caused through our pledges — weighing the estimate via pledge donations twice as heavily as the estimate via new pledges — and add our conservative for non-pledge highly effective donations GWWC caused. Then subtract our conservative estimate of labour opportunity costs. | ||
8 | Value generated by GWWC per GWWC Pledge - How many dollars GWWC has caused to go to highly effective charities for the average GWWC Pledge of all time (in 2022 USD) | Best-guess | $21,755 | Use our GWWC Pledge value model, using the estimates and inputs below. | Link |
9 | Conservative | $8,990 | Use our GWWC Pledge value model, but use the average yearly 2022-USD-equivalent donation for the first 12 years (to be less reliant on data in later years, which suggests higher average donations but is based on a smaller sample), and add an extra 5% discount after those years to account for the intuition a sceptical person may have that our expected impact will decay over time. | ||
10 | Value generated by GWWC per Trial Pledge - How many dollars GWWC has caused to go to highly effective charities for the average Trial Pledge of all time (in 2022 USD) | Best-guess | $2,392.95 | Use our Trial Pledge value model with best-guess inputs. This consists of (A) the value of Trial Pledge donations; (B) the expected value via an increased likelihood of taking the GWWC Pledge later. | Link |
11 | Conservative | $1,032.40 | Use our Trial Pledge value model with conservative inputs. This consists of (A) the value of Trial Pledge donations; (B) the expected value via an increased likelihood of taking the GWWC Pledge later. | ||
12 | Highly effective pledge donations caused by GWWC in 2020-2022 | Best-guess | $25,697,168 | Take our (best-guess/conservative) recorded pledge donations for 2020-2022 and adjust for (best-guess/conservative) unrecorded donations, (best-guess/conservative) effectiveness, and the (best-guess/conservative) counterfactual. We also fully remove donations from three major donors (for best-guess) where we know we haven't had any counterfactual influence and 10 major donors (for conservative, as there is an argument we should assume we have not had counterfactual influence). | Link |
13 | Conservative | $10,498,351 | |||
14 | Value GWWC will have generated for highly effective charities from new pledges in 2020-2022 | Best-guess | $82,548,904 | Sum the donations caused through new pledges in 2020-2022; we avoid double-counting by removing any GWWC-Pledge-related value of the Trial Pledge. | Link |
15 | Conservative | $34,233,435 | |||
16 | Highly effective non-pledge donations caused by GWWC 2020-2022 | Best-guess | $19,356,021 | Take our recorded non-pledge donations for 2020-2022 and adjust for unrecorded donations, effectiveness, and the counterfactual. | Link |
17 | Conservative | $5,507,321 | |||
18 | Other estimates and inputs | ||||
19 | Costs 2020-2022 (inflation-adjusted) | Exact | $2,097,133 | Check our financial records for 2020-2022 and make best-guess adjustments for the EA Funds platform's portion of CEA costs; then inflation-adjust. | Link |
20 | Labour opportunity costs in 2020-2022 | Best-guess | $2,097,133 | Estimate of the opportunity costs of GWWC staff and contractors' labour, based on a guess of how much they could earn and then donate to highly effective charities if they worked at another organisation. | Link |
21 | Conservative | $4,194,266 | |||
22 | Donations to highly effective charities caused by GWWC through new GWWC pledges in 2020-2022 | Best-guess | $81,167,664 | Take our value of the GWWC Pledge estimate and multiply by the amount of new GWWC Pledges made in 2020-2022. | Link |
23 | Conservative | $33,542,505 | |||
24 | Donations to highly effective charities caused by GWWC through new Trial Pledges in 2020-2022 | Best-guess | $1,381,240 | Take our value of the Trial Pledge estimate — ignoring all expected value via taking the GWWC Pledge to avoid double-counting — and multiply by the amount of new Trial Pledges made in 2020-2022. | Link |
25 | Conservative | $690,930 | |||
26 | New GWWC Pledges in 2020-2022 | Exact | 3731 | Check our records. | |
27 | New Trial Pledges in 2020-2022 | Exact | 2761 | Check our records. | |
28 | Fraction of recorded pledge donations captured by largest 10 pledge donors 2020-2022 | Exact | 0.27 | Compare the amount given (excluding 10 largest donors) and the amount given (no exclusions) from C28 and C30 below. | |
29 | Recorded pledge donations 2020-2022 (no exclusions) | Exact | $108,402,674 | Check our records; inflation-adjust. | |
30 | Recorded pledge donations 2020-2022 (excluding three large pledgers who reported we did not influence them in 2020-2022) | Exact | $96,415,463 | Check our records; inflation-adjust; remove relevant pledgers. | |
31 | Recorded pledge donations 2020-2022 (excluding top largest 10 pledgers) | Exact | $78,744,007 | Check our records; inflation-adjust; remove relevant pledgers. | |
32 | Recorded non-pledge donations 2020-2022, inflation-adjusted (excluding one large non-pledge donor) | Exact | $53,007,160 | Check our records; remove one non-pledge donor; inflation-adjust. | |
33 | Recorded non-pledge donations 2020-2022, inflation-adjusted (excluding 10 largest non-pledge donors) | Exact | $34,771,552 | Check our records; remove 10 largest non-pledge donors; inflation-adjust. | |
34 | Recording coefficient for pledge donations | Best-guess | 1.27 | Analyse 2023 pledge reporting survey results. | Link |
35 | Conservative | 1.00 | Assume records are accurate. | ||
36 | Recording coefficient for non-pledge donations | Exact | 1.25 | Check our accounting systems for the relative proportion of non-pledge donations not captured by our current database. | Link |
37 | Effectiveness coefficient for pledge donations | Best-guess | 0.81 | Consider top + standout to meet the bar for "highly effective charity"; look at majority of recorded pledge donations and try to adjust for selection bias. | Link |
38 | Conservative | 0.67 | Consider only top to meet the bar for "highly effective charity"; look at majority of recorded pledge donations and try to adjust for selection bias. | ||
39 | Effectiveness coefficient for non-pledge donations | Best-guess | 0.97 | Consider top + standout to meet the bar for "highly effective charity"; look at majority of recorded non-pledge donations and try to adjust for selection bias. | Link |
40 | Conservative | 0.75 | Consider only top to meet the bar for "highly effective charity"; look at majority of recorded non-pledge donations and try to adjust for selection bias. | ||
41 | Counterfactual coefficient for pledge donations | Best-guess | 0.26 | Take a weighted average of estimates based on results from our signup survey, pledge reporting survey, pledge fulfilment survey, and Trial Pledge survey. | Link |
42 | Conservative | 0.20 | |||
43 | Counterfactual coefficient for non-pledge donations | Best-guess | 0.3 | See the recording counterfactual coefficients tab. Estimates are generated from a weighted average of our non-pledge survey, prior expectations, and our pledge survey results. | Link |
44 | Conservative | 0.17 | |||
45 | Uninfluenced donations by major Pledge donors 2020-2022 | Exact | $11,987,211 | Survey our 10 all-time largest GWWC pledge donors and exclude the donations of three among five respondents who reported not to have been influenced by GWWC (inflation-adjusted). | Link |
46 | Average lifespan of a Pledger | Best-guess | 33 | Look at the most common countries of GWWC Pledgers and roughly compare the retirement ages of those countries with our average GWWC Pledger age. | |
47 | Yearly factor for time discounting | Best-guess | 0.965 | Take the UK green book's recommended discount rate. | Link |
48 | Conservative | 0.95 | Take the UK green book's recommended discount rate and add 1.5% to adjust for other factors such as the chance of GWWC ending. | ||
49 | Average recorded donations of a GWWC Pledger (in 2022 USD) | Exact | $4,132 | Look at every full year of giving by every GWWC Pledger since they started the Pledge (where they have had at least one full year to report their donations); adjust for inflation. | Link |
50 | Value generated by GWWC per Trial Pledge (donation component) | Best-guess | $500 | Take our average recorded Trial Pledge donations and adjust for unrecorded donations, effectiveness, and the counterfactual. | Link |
51 | Conservative | $250 | |||
52 | Value generated by GWWC per Trial Pledge (Pledge component) | Best-guess | $1,893 | Use the probability of taking the GWWC Pledge conditional on taking the Trial Pledge as an estimate for the increased probability of doing so when taking the Trial Pledge, and multiply by the average value GWWC causes per GWWC Pledge. | Link |
53 | Conservative | $782 | |||
54 | Probability of taking GWWC Pledge conditional on taking Trial Pledge | Best-guess | 0.087 | Take the proportion of people who made the Trial Pledge at least one year ago who since have gone on to take the GWWC Pledge. | Link |
55 | Average recorded donations of a Trial Pledger | Exact | $1,877 | Look at every donation by every Trial Pledger during their pledge period; adjust for inflation. | Link |
56 | Value generated for highly effective charities from pledges 2020-2022 | Best-guess | $44,647,747 | Combine respective best-guess/conservative estimates of value generated by new pledges (1/3 weighting), and value generated by pledge donations influenced (2/3 weighting). | Link |
57 | Exact | $18,410,045 | |||