Expected Value Calculator

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1	Expected Value Calculator
2		(DO FIRST)	1 Most, 5 Least	1 Most, 5 Least	1 Most, 5 Least	1 Least, 5 Most	1 Least, 5 Most	1 Least, 5 Most
3	Potential Projects	Predicted Ranking	Time (Upfront)	Time (Ongoing)	Difficulty	Excitement	Impact (90 day)	Impact (25 yr)	Total Score*
4	Example #1 (large upfront but scalable)		1	5	3	3	3	3	62
5	Example #2 (exciting & easy, but low value and no scale)		4	1	5	5	1	1	69
6	Example #3 (difficult, high long term potential, some scale)		2	3	2	1	3	5	52
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10	Value Descriptions
11	Time (upfront)	How long will this project take to get this up and running and start receiving benefits? Remember speed of implementation.
12	Time (ongoing)	What will this project need to grow and maintain benefits into the future? Can it be managed passively? Remember opportunity cost.
13	Excitement	How much does working on this project excite me? Will I enjoy the process or have to use willpower to push through?
14	Difficulty	Do I currently have (or have access to) the necessary skillset? How likely is sucess? How much variance in potential outcomes?
15	Impact (90 day)	How much immediate impact will this project have? What short-term opportunities does it create? Momentum builds on itself.
16	Impact (25 yr)	How much impact could this project have towards my life's mission? Will the skills and experience gained be worthwhile even if I fail?
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18	*Total score is calculated exponentially so 1=1, 2=4, 3=9, 4=16, 5=25 towards total score.
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20	Instructions:
21	1) File --> Make a Copy to create a version you can edit, if you have not already done so.
22	2) List all the projects you are considering under "Potential Projects". This may take some timeboxed brainstorming. Note that "projects" have a deliverable and an end date.
23	3) Review the values (time, difficulty, etc) and descriptions. Are these the values you are optimizing for? Feel free to change these values to what resonates most. Maintain a limit of 6 values.
24	3) Number each project in order of where you predict it will rank for "total score".
25	4) Rate each project on each of the 6 categories from 1 (worst) to 5 (best).
26	5) Compare total scores. Do the results surprise you? How does the highest score line up with your intuition? Adjust value scores as necessary.
27	6) Decide which of the 6 values you are optimizing for the most right now. Rerank scores for this value from 1 to 10 (ignore error) instead of from 1 to 5 and observe how total scores change.
28	7) Did this calculator change your hypothesis of which project to pursue first? Brainstorm cheap experiments to stress test your assumptions (time commitment, difficulty level, impact) if the answer is still unclear.
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