ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXY
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($mm)202120222023202420252026E2027E2028E2029E2030E
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revenue
gross profit
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Subscription1,3421,4881,8372,3502,7523,1653,5453,8994,2894,718
Subscription
2,7522,232
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Merchant Solutions3,2704,1125,2236,5308,80411,35314,48718,47923,56030,028
Merchant Solutions
8,8043,323
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Total revenue4,6125,6007,0608,88011,55614,51818,03222,37827,84934,745
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Gross Merchandise value (GMV)175,362197,167235,910292,275378,441473,051591,314739,143923,9281,154,910
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Merchandise solutions / GMV1.86%2.09%2.21%2.23%2.33%2.40%2.45%2.50%2.55%2.60%
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YoY Growth
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Subscription10.8%23.5%27.9%17.1%15%12%10.0%10.0%10.0%
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GMV12.4%19.6%23.9%29.5%25%25%25%25%25%
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Total revenue21.4%26.1%25.8%30.1%25.6%24.2%24.1%24.5%24.8%
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Gross profit
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Subscription1,0781,1571,4831,9162,2322,5322,8363,1193,4313,774
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Merchant Solutions1,4031,5972,0322,5563,3234,3145,5057,0228,95311,411
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Total GP2,4812,7543,5154,4725,5556,8468,34110,14112,38415,185
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Gross margin
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Subscription80.3%77.8%80.7%81.5%81.1%80.0%80.0%80.0%80.0%80.0%
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Merchant Solutions42.9%38.8%38.9%39.1%37.7%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%38.0%
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Total GM53.8%49.2%49.8%50.4%48.1%47.2%46.3%45.3%44.5%43.7%
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Operating expenses
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S&M9021,2311,2201,3931,6631,9602,2902,6633,0913,579
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R&D8541,5031,7301,3671,5361,7422,0202,3272,6743,058
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G&A3757084914104715526497618911,042
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Impairment & other one-offs--1,340-------
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EBIT ex T&LL350(687)(1,266)1,3021,8852,5923,3824,3905,7287,506
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Transaction & loan losses82135152227417436451448418521
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EBIT (GAAP)269(822)(1,418)1,0751,4682,1572,9313,9425,3106,985
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as % of Revenue
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S&M19.5%22.0%17.3%15.7%14.4%13.5%12.7%11.9%11.1%10.3%
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R&D18.5%26.8%24.5%15.4%13.3%12%11.2%10.4%9.6%8.8%
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G&A8.1%12.6%7.0%4.6%4.1%3.8%3.6%3.4%3.2%3.0%
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EBIT ex T&LL7.6%(12.3%)(17.9%)14.7%16.3%17.9%18.8%19.6%20.6%21.6%
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Transaction & loan losses1.8%2.4%2.2%2.6%3.6%3.0%2.5%2.0%1.5%1.5%
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EBIT (GAAP)5.8%(14.7%)(20.1%)12.1%12.7%14.9%16.3%17.6%19.1%20.1%
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SBC331549615430449523595671752834
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SBC % of revenue7.2%9.8%8.7%4.8%3.9%3.6%3.3%3.0%2.7%2.4%
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non-GAAP EBIT599(273)5371,5051,9172,6793,5264,6146,0627,819
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FCF485(186)9051,5972,0072,4113,1744,1525,4567,037
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non GAAP EBIT to FCF81%n.m.169%106%105%90.0%90.0%90.0%90.0%90.0%
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FCF - SBC154(736)2901,1671,5581,8892,5793,4814,7046,203
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Base case DCF Valuation
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Discount Period (years from 30-Dec-1899)1.002.003.004.005.00
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Discount Factor0.910.830.750.680.62
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FCF - SBC1,8892,5793,4814,7046,203
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PV of (FCF - SBC)1,7172,1312,6153,2133,852
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Sum of PV of FCF - SBC (2026E–2030E)13,528
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Terminal Value @ 35x GAAP EBIT244,469
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PV of Terminal EV151,796
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Enterprise Value165,324
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Plus: Net Cash5,472
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Equity Value170,796
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Diluted Shares (mm)1,291.9
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Intrinsic Value per Share$132.20
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Current Price$164.44
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Upside / (Downside)(19.6%)
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DCF inputs
68
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Discount rate (WACC)10%
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Terminal multiple (x 2030E GAAP EBIT)35.0x
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Share price$164.44
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Net cash (30-Jun-2026)
74
Cash and cash equivalents1,656
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Marketable securities3,291
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Long-term marketable securities525
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Less: debt-
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Net cash5,472
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Share count (mm)
81
Shares outstanding, 30-Jun-2026 (Class A + B)1,289.2
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Dilutive securities (Q2'26 diluted less basic WASO)2.7
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Diluted shares1,291.9
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87
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Sensitivity: intrinsic value per share ($)
89
Rows: WACC · columns: exit multipleWACC25.0x27.5x30.0x32.5x35.0x
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9.0%$102.88$111.67$120.45$129.24$138.02
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10.0%$98.63$107.03$115.42$123.81$132.20
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11.0%$94.60$102.62$110.65$118.67$126.69
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12.0%$90.78$98.45$106.12$113.79$121.46
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13.0%$87.16$94.50$101.83$109.17$116.50
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