Malengo internal estimate

My best-guess assumes that 70% of Malengo students will graduate, and 70% of graduates will find a grad job in Germany. 1*0.7*0.7 = 0.49 = ~50%

Note: to keep things simple, I assume 2 scenarios rather than 6. Whether students migrate vs. not seems the most salient distinction

Best-guess is that counter-factual income would be higher for participating students, given they are selected on ability

"Compared to the outside option of taking a job in Uganda with the average yearly income of those with a high school diploma or some college, EUR 1,598", the impact of Malengo

Income for those who migrate net of remittances & repayments

My best-guess takes the mid-point of starting salaries for engineering, agriculture, and English graduates, which I think are representative of the types of degrees Malengo students would study. From the resulting figure ($44k), I subtract $4k to account for remittances. I don't subtract the $30k repayment amount because: i) over the course of a 40 year life, $30k ~= $1k per year; ii) this parameter is pretty uncertain to begin with; iii) the bottom-line actually isn't that sensitive to this parameter (b/c of our logarithmic utility assumption)

Idea here is that we need to adjust for PPP for those that stay in Germany; presumably $40k goes further in Uganda than it would in Germany

Rough guess: some participants that return to Uganda will have graduated, so I take a rough midpoint between Ugandan salaries for secondary ($1,600) and tertiary graduates ($5,600)

GiveWell moral weights

GiveWell, Moral weights and discount rate

GiveWell, Moral weights and discount rate

Assume average working lifespan for the participants

Average number of years between Malengo programme and long-term benefits

Assume that it takes scholars ~5 years to graduate

Units of value in first year of those that migrate, given resource sharing

Total present-discounted units of direct value per person that migrates

Units of value in first year of those that return, given resource sharing

Total present-discounted units of direct value per person that returns

Total discounted units of value per person from direct effects

Malengo internal estimate

"To estimate the magnitude of such remittances, a useful statistic is that the average Ugandan migrant in the UK sends USD 4,000 per year back to Uganda (Cooper et al., “Remittances in Uganda”, Centre for Financial Regulation & Inclusion, 2018). While we don’t have data for the remittances sent by the 2,600 Ugandans living in Germany, it is likely that the magnitude is similar due to the relatively similar household incomes in Germany compared to the UK", the impact of Malengo

"To estimate the magnitude of such remittances, a useful statistic is that the average Ugandan migrant in the UK sends USD 4,000 per year back to Uganda (Cooper et al., “Remittances in Uganda”, Centre for Financial Regulation & Inclusion, 2018). While we don’t have data for the remittances sent by the 2,600 Ugandans living in Germany, it is likely that the magnitude is similar due to the relatively similar household incomes in Germany compared to the UK", the impact of Malengo

Units of value in first year given resource sharing in household

Total present-discounted units of indirect value per person that migrates

Total discounted units of value per person from remittances

Direct effects: mortality effects (prolonged life expectancy)

Rough guess. A more precise esimate would be life expectancy conditional on making it to age 18.

Average number of years between Malengo programme and mortality benefits

Rough guess: assume prolonging someone's life expectancy is equivalent to averting the death of a 60-64 year old. This seems roughly reasonable: life expectancy is ~81 in Germany

GiveWell, Update on GiveWell's moral weights, 2020 (see chart on p. 9)

Number of children whose migration decisions could be affected

Guess - I imagine the people that could plausibly be affected include siblings, cousins, and close friends

I base this estimate on two statistics: the emigrant-to-home population ratio in Uganda (5%), and the percentage of migrating Africans who migrate to Europe (18% ~= 20%)

For emigrant-to-home population ratio in Uganda, see Map 1.1 (page 45) in World Bank (2018). From the Economist: "Only 18% of those (Africans) living abroad are in Europe. About 70% are in other African countries", The Economist (2021)

Number of children in network who would migrate without programme

Percentage increase in migration probability given migrant exposure

"Bedasso et al. (2020) find an effect of migrant exposure on completing secondary education of 14–17%, and on own future migration of 22%", impact of Malengo

Additional cases of migration per person caused by the programme

Total discounted units of value per person from migration spillovers

Units of value per person from direct + indirect effects

Temporal effects: funding future cohorts via income sharing

We use a higher discount rate for future cohorts. This is to account for greater uncertainty about those potential participants (e.g., around program structure and counterfactual outcomes for future cohorts)

Annual payment from income sharing agreement from migrants

Malengo income sharing agreement requirement

If you live in Germany or another high- or middle-income country, and your yearly income exceeds EUR 27,000, you contribute 14% of your pre-tax income to future Malengo Scholars for a period of 10 years

"After you finish your studies and take a job, we expect you to make contributions back to Malengo to allow us to continue our work. This happens through a so-called Income Share Agreement. An income share agreement means that you agree to contribute a share of your income for a limited period of time. For the 2023 cohort, the parameters were as follows: Students who live in Germany and earn more than EUR 27,000 per year contribute 14% of their pre-tax income for up to 10 years (but never more than EUR 56,220 over their lifetime). If they to Uganda and earn more than EUR 27,000 per year, they contribute 7% of their pre-tax income for up to 5 years (with the same lifetime maximum). If they do not have an income, or if their income is lower than EUR 27,000, they are not expected to make contributions. All of these numbers are adjusted for inflation on an ongoing basis. The parameters for the 2024 cohort may be slightly different; successful applicants will be informed about the exact details of the agreement.” Malengo, “Uganda-Germany Program”.

The ISA is legally binding; this is the repayment rate assumed by Chancen, the private company that Malengo has been working with

Taking account time spent studying (5 years) + midpoint in length of obligation (5 year)

Total units of value generated per person given income sharing agreement

% of value derived from indirect income effects (remittances)

% of value derived from encouraging additional migration decisions