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Instructions: CLICK HERE TO MAKE A COPY OF THE SHEET... then change the "user inputs" in yellow.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1LBZWHEk2Jo-IFvZK_smrwYoOTOykB7H-oHb0qYjg2ys/copy
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WARNING: THIS IS GUESSWORK DONE BY A NON-EXPERT AND MAY BE WRONG - USE AT YOUR OWN RISK
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WARNING: THESE ARE MIDPOINTS OF AN ESTIMATE AND DO NOT DISPLAY THE RELEVANT MARGINS OF ERROR / UNCERTAINTY - RISK MAY BE HIGHER
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WARNING: THESE CALCULATIONS DO NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT CHANCE OF HARMING OTHERS - TOTAL HARM WILL BE HIGHER
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WARNING: THESE CALCULATIONS DO NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT OTHER POSSIBLE SOURCES OF INCREASED RISK (e.g., poor ventilation, people singing) SO BE CAREFUL TO CONSIDER YOUR SPECIFIC SCENARIO.
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UPDATE 6 AUG - Refined mask estimates and infection fatality rate with updated sourcing. Also updated state case data.
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I. BASIC RISKS
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Source
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How much do you value your life?$10,000,000User input (consider that the statistical value of life in the US is $5-10M. A typical working lifetime at $60/hr is $4.8M in earnings.)
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If you drive for 30 miles, your chance of death is 1 in2,220,0001.5 killed per 100 million miles (Wikipedia)
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This means driving 30 minutes has an expected loss of...$4.50Calculation
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If you fly SF to Boston roundtrip, your chance of death is 1 in9,250,0000.2 deaths per 10 billion passenger-miles (Wikipedia), 2704mi from SF to Boston (Source), roundtrip is double that distance
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This means an SF-Boston round trip has an expected loss of...$1.08Calculation
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That's X times more dangerous than driving 30 miles...0.2Calculation
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If you ride a motorcycle without a helmet for 30 miles, your chance of death is 1 in
60,000.00212 killed per billion miles (Source). Helmets reduce risk of death by 37% (Source).
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That means riding a motorcycle without a helmet for 30 miles is an expected loss of...
$166.67Calculation
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That's X times more dangerous than driving 30 miles...37Calculation
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II. COST OF COVID
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Your age?29User input
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Gender?MaleUser input
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Do you have chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)?NoUser input
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Are you immune compromised?NoUser input
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Are you diabetic?NoUser input
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Your chance of dying from COVID is 1 in5,746Calculation based on equation from https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1273266048570138625 adjusted for CFR->IFR using age-based weights derived from https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v2
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This risk from death is an expected loss of X if you have COVID...$1,740Calculation
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Your chance of getting bad flu symptoms from COVID is30%https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/06/01/asymptomatic-patients (NOTE: This chance is not adjusted for age/gender/comorbidities)
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COVID flu symptoms last X days on average14https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-long-term
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How much would you pay to avert a day of bad flu symptoms?$500User input (Working one day for eight hours at $60/hr is $480)
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The risk of sickness is an expected loss of X if you have COVID...$2,100Calculation
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The total cost of getting COVID to you is...$3,840Calculation
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WARNING: ACTUAL COST IS HIGHER - THIS DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT RISK TO YOU INFECTING OTHERS, MEDICAL COSTS, OR CHANCE OF LONG-TERM CHRONIC CONDITIONS. THIS IS A MIDPOINT ESTIMATE WITH UNCERTAINTY. ALSO THE MODEL COULD BE WRONG FOR OTHER REASONS. USE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
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III. COVID PREVALENCE
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Your state?OHUser input (...US only, sorry ...users in other countries could manually edit the below cells)
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New COVID cases per day1166COVID Tracking Data (CSV as of 6 Aug - to update, download /api/v1/states/daily.csv and put it in "COVID State Case Data")
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Estimated total active cases in state...69,960Calculation assuming daily case increase is linear and cases last for 15 days (Source, Source), that there are ~4 additional unknown cases for every known case (Source, Source), and that 20% of cases are isolated (e.g., self-isolation, slaughterhouse, hospital, nursing home, jail/prison) (TODO citation needed).
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Population of state11,570,808CSV from GitHub (2013 data)
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Case prevalence in state is 1 in165Calculation
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IV. COVID RISK OF EVENT
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Number of other people within 6ft for 5+min?3User input
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Average length of contact (minutes)?10User input
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Are you wearing a mask?NoUser input
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Are you outside?NoUser input
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Percent of other people wearing masks?0%User input (70% is a pretty good baseline for an urban area based on the available data)
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Your chance of COVID infection is 1 in7,860Calculation, assuming fixed 1 in 143 chance of getting COVID from an infected person per 10 minutes (Source, Source, see also) up to a maximum of 30% (Source, Source). Assume you wearing mask reduces risk by 25% (Source), and other people wearing a mask makes things 45% safer (Source), with a linear adjustment for mask adherence. Assume outside makes things 5x safer (very wide range of estimates here, this is one weak source for example). Also uses case prevalence in your state (see section III). Note that getting COVID from touching surfaces is rare enough I don't factor it in (Source).
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That means an expected loss via COVID risk of...$0.49Calculation (based on the risk above and your values from sections I and II)
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This is X times riskier than driving 30 miles...0.11Calculation
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This is X times riskier than an SF-Boston roundtrip flight...0.45Calculation
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This is X times riskier than motorcycling for 30 miles without a helmet...0.003Calculation
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WARNING: ACTUAL RISK IS HIGHER - THIS DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT RISK TO YOU INFECTING OTHERS. ALSO THIS IS A MIDPOINT ESTIMATE WITH UNCERTAINTY. ALSO THE MODEL COULD BE WRONG. USE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
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WARNING: THESE CALCULATIONS DO NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT OTHER POSSIBLE SOURCES OF INCREASED RISK (e.g., poor ventilation, people singing) SO BE CAREFUL TO CONSIDER YOUR SPECIFIC SCENARIO.
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V. COVID RISK OF REPEATED EVENTS
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How many times will you repeat the above event in IV?24User input
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Your chance of COVID infection is 1 in328Calculation
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That means an expected loss via COVID risk of...$11.73Calculation
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This is X times riskier than driving 30 miles...2.60Calculation
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This is X times riskier than an SF-Boston roundtrip flight...10.85Calculation
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This is X times riskier than motorcycling for 30 miles without a helmet...0.070Calculation
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VI. CREDITS
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Calculator made by Peter Hurford - all errors are my own!
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Thanks to Derek Foster, Jason Schukraft, Neil Dullaghan, Ben Hurford, Dr. William Hurford, Luisa Rodriguez, Linchuan Zhang, and Ozzie Gooen for feedback. Feedback does not imply agreement or endorsement.
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