Rationality guidebook

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	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H
1	Bias name	Frequency (estimate/100)	impact if corrected (from normal use) 1-100	other notes	definition	discussion	more frequent than X (what is this fallacy more frequent than)	more impactful than X (which fallacy will solving this fallacy have more of an impact than)
2	Ambiguity effect				The tendency to avoid options for which missing information makes the probability seem "unknown".[8]
3	Anchoring orfocalism				The tendency to rely too heavily, or "anchor", on one trait or piece of information when making decisions (usually the first piece of information that we acquire on that subject)[9][10]
4	Attentional bias				The tendency of our perception to be affected by our recurring thoughts.[11]
5	Automation bias				The tendency to excessively depend on automated systems which can lead to erroneous automated information overriding correct decisions.[12]
6	Availability heuristic				The tendency to overestimate the likelihood of events with greater "availability" in memory, which can be influenced by how recent the memories are or how unusual or emotionally charged they may be.[13]
7	Availability cascade				A self-reinforcing process in which a collective belief gains more and more plausibility through its increasing repetition in public discourse (or "repeat something long enough and it will become true").[14]
8	Backfire effect				When people react to disconfirming evidence by strengthening their beliefs.[15]
9	Bandwagon effect				The tendency to do (or believe) things because many other people do (or believe) the same. Related to groupthink and herd behavior.[16]
10	Base rate fallacy or base rate neglect				The tendency to ignore base rate information (generic, general information) and focus on specific information (information only pertaining to a certain case).[17]
11	Belief bias				An effect where someone's evaluation of the logical strength of an argument is biased by the believability of the conclusion.[18]
12	Bias blind spot				The tendency to see oneself as less biased than other people, or to be able to identify more cognitive biases in others than in oneself.[19]
13	Cheerleader effect				The tendency for people to appear more attractive in a group than in isolation.[20]
14	Choice-supportive bias				The tendency to remember one's choices as better than they actually were.[21]
15	Clustering illusion				The tendency to overestimate the importance of small runs, streaks, or clusters in large samples of random data (that is, seeing phantom patterns).[10]
16	Confirmation bias				The tendency to search for, interpret, focus on and remember information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions.[22]
17	Congruence bias				The tendency to test hypotheses exclusively through direct testing, instead of testing possible alternative hypotheses.[10]
18	Conjunction fallacy				The tendency to assume that specific conditions are more probable than general ones.[23]
19	Regressive bias				A certain state of mind wherein high values and high likelihoods are overestimated while low values and low likelihoods are underestimated.[24][25][26][unreliable source?]
20	Conservatism (Bayesian)				The tendency to revise one's belief insufficiently when presented with new evidence.[24][27][28]
21	Contrast effect				The enhancement or reduction of a certain perception's stimuli when compared with a recently observed, contrasting object.[29]
22	Curse of knowledge				When better-informed people find it extremely difficult to think about problems from the perspective of lesser-informed people.[30]
23	Decoy effect				Preferences for either option A or B changes in favor of option B when option C is presented, which is similar to option B but in no way better.
24	Denomination effect				The tendency to spend more money when it is denominated in small amounts (e.g. coins) rather than large amounts (e.g. bills).[31]
25	Distinction bias				The tendency to view two options as more dissimilar when evaluating them simultaneously than when evaluating them separately.[32]
26	Dunning-Kruger effect				The tendency for unskilled individuals to overestimate their ability and the tendency for experts to underestimate their ability.[33]
27	Duration neglect				The neglect of the duration of an episode in determining its value
28	Empathy gap				The tendency to underestimate the influence or strength of feelings, in either oneself or others.
29	Endowment effect				The fact that people often demand much more to give up an object than they would be willing to pay to acquire it.[34]
30	Essentialism				Categorizing people and things according to their essential nature, in spite of variations.[dubious – discuss][35]
31	Exaggeratedexpectation				Based on the estimates, real-world evidence turns out to be less extreme than our expectations (conditionally inverse of the conservatism bias).[unreliable source?][24][36]
32	Experimenter'sor expectation bias				The tendency for experimenters to believe, certify, and publish data that agree with their expectations for the outcome of an experiment, and to disbelieve, discard, or downgrade the corresponding weightings for data that appear to conflict with those expectations.[37]
33	Focusing effect				The tendency to place too much importance on one aspect of an event.[38]
34	Forer effect orBarnum effect				The observation that individuals will give high accuracy ratings to descriptions of their personality that supposedly are tailored specifically for them, but are in fact vague and general enough to apply to a wide range of people. This effect can provide a partial explanation for the widespread acceptance of some beliefs and practices, such as astrology, fortune telling, graphology, and some types of personality tests.
35	Framing effect				Drawing different conclusions from the same information, depending on how that information is presented.
36	Frequency illusion				The illusion in which a word, a name or other thing that has recently come to one's attention suddenly seems to appear with improbable frequency shortly afterwards (not to be confused with the recency illusion or selection bias).[39] Colloquially, this illusion is known as the Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon.[40]
37	Functional fixedness				Limits a person to using an object only in the way it is traditionally used.
38	Gambler's fallacy				The tendency to think that future probabilities are altered by past events, when in reality they are unchanged. Results from an erroneous conceptualization of the law of large numbers. For example, "I've flipped heads with this coin five times consecutively, so the chance of tails coming out on the sixth flip is much greater than heads."
39	Hard–easy effect				Based on a specific level of task difficulty, the confidence in judgments is too conservative and not extreme enough[24][41][42][43]
40	Hindsight bias				Sometimes called the "I-knew-it-all-along" effect, the tendency to see past events as being predictable[44] at the time those events happened.
41	Hot-hand fallacy				The "hot-hand fallacy" (also known as the "hot hand phenomenon" or "hot hand") is the fallacious belief that a person who has experienced success has a greater chance of further success in additional attempts.
42	Hyperbolic discounting				Discounting is the tendency for people to have a stronger preference for more immediate payoffs relative to later payoffs. Hyperbolic discounting leads to choices that are inconsistent over time – people make choices today that their future selves would prefer not to have made, despite using the same reasoning.[45] Also known as current moment bias, present-bias, and related to Dynamic inconsistency.
43	Identifiable victim effect				The tendency to respond more strongly to a single identified person at risk than to a large group of people at risk.[46]
44	IKEA effect				The tendency for people to place a disproportionately high value on objects that they partially assembled themselves, such as furniture from IKEA, regardless of the quality of the end result.
45	Illusion of control				The tendency to overestimate one's degree of influence over other external events.[47]
46	Illusion of validity				Belief that furtherly acquired information generates additional relevant data for predictions, even when it evidently does not.[48]
47	Illusory correlation				Inaccurately perceiving a relationship between two unrelated events.[49][50]
48	Impact bias				The tendency to overestimate the length or the intensity of the impact of future feeling states.[51]
49	Information bias				The tendency to seek information even when it cannot affect action.[52]
50	Insensitivity to sample size				The tendency to under-expect variation in small samples
51	Irrational escalation				The phenomenon where people justify increased investment in a decision, based on the cumulative prior investment, despite new evidence suggesting that the decision was probably wrong. Also known as the sunk cost fallacy.
52	Less-is-better effect				The tendency to prefer a smaller set to a larger set judged separately, but not jointly
53	Loss aversion				"the disutility of giving up an object is greater than the utility associated with acquiring it".[53] (see also Sunk cost effects and endowment effect).
54	Mere exposure effect				The tendency to express undue liking for things merely because of familiarity with them.[54]
55	Money illusion				The tendency to concentrate on the nominal value (face value) of money rather than its value in terms of purchasing power.[55]
56	Moral credential effect				The tendency of a track record of non-prejudice to increase subsequent prejudice.
57	Negativity effect				The tendency of people, when evaluating the causes of the behaviors of a person they dislike, to attribute their positive behaviors to the environment and their negative behaviors to the person's inherent nature.
58	Negativity bias				Psychological phenomenon by which humans have a greater recall of unpleasant memories compared with positive memories.[56]
59	Neglect of probability				The tendency to completely disregard probability when making a decision under uncertainty.[57]
60	Normalcy bias				The refusal to plan for, or react to, a disaster which has never happened before.
61	Not invented here				Aversion to contact with or use of products, research, standards, or knowledge developed outside a group. Related to IKEA effect.
62	Observer-expectancy effect				When a researcher expects a given result and therefore unconsciously manipulates an experiment or misinterprets data in order to find it (see alsosubject-expectancy effect).
63	Omission bias				The tendency to judge harmful actions as worse, or less moral, than equally harmful omissions (inactions).[58]
64	Optimism bias				The tendency to be over-optimistic, overestimating favorable and pleasing outcomes (see also wishful thinking, valence effect, positive outcome bias).[59][60]
65	Ostrich effect				Ignoring an obvious (negative) situation.
66	Outcome bias				The tendency to judge a decision by its eventual outcome instead of based on the quality of the decision at the time it was made.
67	Overconfidence effect				Excessive confidence in one's own answers to questions. For example, for certain types of questions, answers that people rate as "99% certain" turn out to be wrong 40% of the time.[24][61][62][63]
68	Pareidolia				A vague and random stimulus (often an image or sound) is perceived as significant, e.g., seeing images of animals or faces in clouds, the man in the moon, and hearing non-existent hidden messages on records played in reverse.
69	Pessimism bias				The tendency for some people, especially those suffering from depression, to overestimate the likelihood of negative things happening to them.
70	Planning fallacy				The tendency to underestimate task-completion times.[51]
71	Post-purchase rationalization				The tendency to persuade oneself through rational argument that a purchase was a good value.
72	Pro-innovation bias				The tendency to have an excessive optimism towards an invention or innovation's usefulness throughout society, while often failing to identify its limitations and weaknesses.
73	Pseudocertainty effect				The tendency to make risk-averse choices if the expected outcome is positive, but make risk-seeking choices to avoid negative outcomes.[64]
74	Reactance				The urge to do the opposite of what someone wants you to do out of a need to resist a perceived attempt to constrain your freedom of choice (see alsoReverse psychology).
75	Reactive devaluation				Devaluing proposals only because they purportedly originated with an adversary.
76	Recency illusion				The illusion that a word or language usage is a recent innovation when it is in fact long-established (see also frequency illusion).
77	Restraint bias				The tendency to overestimate one's ability to show restraint in the face of temptation.
78	Rhyme as reason effect				Rhyming statements are perceived as more truthful. A famous example being used in the O.J Simpson trial with the defense's use of the phrase "If the gloves don't fit, then you must acquit."
79	Risk compensation / Peltzman effect				The tendency to take greater risks when perceived safety increases.
80	Selective perception				The tendency for expectations to affect perception.
81	Semmelweis reflex				The tendency to reject new evidence that contradicts a paradigm.[28]
82	Social comparison bias				The tendency, when making hiring decisions, to favour potential candidates who don't compete with one's own particular strengths.[65]
83	Social desirability bias				The tendency to over-report socially desirable characteristics or behaviours in one self and under-report socially undesirable characteristics or behaviours.[66]
84	Status quo bias				The tendency to like things to stay relatively the same (see also loss aversion, endowment effect, and system justification).[67][68]
85	Stereotyping				Expecting a member of a group to have certain characteristics without having actual information about that individual.
86	Subadditivity effect				The tendency to judge probability of the whole to be less than the probabilities of the parts.[69]
87	Subjective validation				Perception that something is true if a subject's belief demands it to be true. Also assigns perceived connections between coincidences.
88	Survivorship bias				Concentrating on the people or things that "survived" some process and inadvertently overlooking those that didn't because of their lack of visibility.
89	Time-saving bias				Underestimations of the time that could be saved (or lost) when increasing (or decreasing) from a relatively low speed and overestimations of the time that could be saved (or lost) when increasing (or decreasing) from a relatively high speed.
90	Unit bias				The tendency to want to finish a given unit of a task or an item. Strong effects on the consumption of food in particular.[70]
91	Well travelled road effect				Underestimation of the duration taken to traverse oft-traveled routes and overestimation of the duration taken to traverse less familiar routes.
92	Zero-risk bias				Preference for reducing a small risk to zero over a greater reduction in a larger risk.
93	Zero-sum heuristic				Intuitively judging a situation to be zero-sum (i.e., that gains and losses are correlated). Derives from the zero-sum game in game theory, where wins and losses sum to zero.[71][72] The frequency with which this bias occurs may be related to the social dominance orientation personality factor.
94
95	Social biases[edit]
96	Most of these biases are labeled as attributional biases.
97	Actor–observer bias				The tendency for explanations of other individuals' behaviors to overemphasize the influence of their personality and underemphasize the influence of their situation (see also Fundamental attribution error), and for explanations of one's own behaviors to do the opposite (that is, to overemphasize the influence of our situation and underemphasize the influence of our own personality).
98	Defensive attribution hypothesis				Attributing more blame to a harm-doer as the outcome becomes more severe or as personal or situational similarity to the victim increases.
99	Egocentric bias				Occurs when people claim more responsibility for themselves for the results of a joint action than an outside observer would credit them with.
100	Extrinsic incentives bias				An exception to the fundamental attribution error, when people view others as having (situational) extrinsic motivations and (dispositional) intrinsic motivations for oneself