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Dem Primary 2020 Candidate Tiers:
(scroll down for prior updates)
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Color LegendTier Descriptions:
Movement within a tier is common and means little, movement between tiers is a much bigger deal
Satistical Categories
Things I think might be useful when determining a candidate's chances.
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Improved a TierFirst Tier
Likely frontrunners (considered the presumptive nominee at some point. e.g. Hillary 08 & 16, Gore 00)
Fundraising:
Amount of money raised in the most recent quarter
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No ChangeSecond Tier
Contenders (realistic chance at being the nominee, e.g. Kerry 04, Obama 08, Dukakis 88)
COH:
Campaign's cash on hand
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Dropped a TierThird Tier
Dark horses (will need to have something go very right based upon the current situation. e.g. Clinton 92, Clark 04, Sanders 16)
RCP Avg.:
Real Clear Politics Polling Average on first day of the month.
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Added This UpdateFourth Tier
Very dark horses (Not impossible they come out of nowhere, but also not at all likely to be the nominee. e.g. Dean 04, O'Malley 16, Al Gore 88)
PredictIt:
Share price to buy on PredictIt.org's 2020 Dem Primary market
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Oprah
You must be this Oprah to have any chance at the nomination.
Considering:
Percentage of respondants who say they are considering voting for the candidate in the primary, from the most recent Economist/YouGov poll.
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Fifth Tier
No hopers (why are you thinking about running for president if you're not a whackjob or perennial? e.g. Biden 08, Dodd 08)
Has Opinion:
Percentage of respondants who have a positive or negative opinion of the candidate, from the most recent weekly Morning Consult tracking poll.
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Vermin Supreme
If you are below America's finest political performance artist, I expect you to get fewer votes than him come the NH primary.
538 ES:
Fivethirtyeight.com Endorsement Score
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CBS DT:
CBS News projection of delegates won through Super Tuesday- removed after October update as not useful
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IA/NH/SC/NV Avg:
Real Clear Politics state polling average on listed date (November) 538 state polling average (January)
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Net Fav:
Candidate's net favorability in most recent Morning Consult tracking poll
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Update DateTierCredentialsAnnounced?FundraisingCOHRCP Avg.PredictItConsideringHas Opinion538 ESIA AvgNH AvgNV AvgSC AvgNet FavPoll Dates
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February 1, 2020
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Joe Biden1aEx-VeepIN 4.25.19$23.3m$8.9m27.2%3149%94%24521.5%16.5%24.0%36.3%52
2.1.20 RCP, PredictIt, 538
Out:Tier:
Entry Tier:
CredsDateRan?
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Bernie Sanders1bSen VTIN 2.19.19$34.6m$18.2m23.5%4046%94%5522.0%23.4%22.2%16.4%52
1.26.20 Morning Consult
Martin O'Malley 44Ex-Gov MDOUT 1.3.19No
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Elizabeth Warren2aSen MAIN 12.31.18$21.7m$13.7m15%648%85%8514.4%13.1%13.8%9.6%43
1.28.20 Economist/YouGov
Richard Ojeda55State Sen WVOUT 1.25.19Yes
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Pete Buttigieg3aMayor of South Bend, ININ 1.23.19$25.2m$14.5m6.7%427%69%3615.5%13.7%6.3%4.3%35Eric Garcetti33Mayor of LAOUT 1.29.19No
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Amy Klobuchar4aSen MNIN 2.10.19$11.4m$5m4.3%223%57%5310.2%7.3%3%2.4%25Howard Schultz55CEO StarbucksOUT 1.31.19No
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OprahOprahOprahOprahOprahOprahOprahOprahOprah100%OprahOprahOprahOprahOprah1000Luis Gutierrez55Ex-Rep ILOUT 5.10.18No
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Mike Bloomberg5aVelvet Gloved Fascist
OUT 3.5.19/IN 11.7.19
$200m (all self funded)
LOL8%1820%79%480.9%1.5%3%5.7%33Joe Kennedy III55Rep MAOUT 2.7.19No
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Andrew Yang5bGadfly Tech-BroIN 11.6.17$16.5m$3.7m4.7%618%62%03.6%4.2%4.1%2.8%36Mitch Landrieu44Mayor NOOUT 2.6.19No
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Tom Steyer5cMegadonor
OUT 1.8.19/IN 7.9.19
$156.6m ($155.8m self funding)
LOL1.8%111%54%13.5%2.7%7.2%7.8%22Eric Holder33Ex-AGOUT 3.4.19No
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Tulsi Gabbard5dRep HIIN 1.11.19$3.5m$2.8m1.5%16%49%01.2%5.2%1.0%1.0%-5Sherrod Brown33Sen OHOUT 3.7.19No
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Vermin Supreme5eBest CandidateIN 8.22.17nrnrnrnr100%0%0nrnrnrnrnrJeff Merkley34Sen OROUT 3.5.19No
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Michael Bennet5fSen COIN 5.2.19$1.2m$517k0.5%15%35%150.3%0.8%0.2%0.2%11Andrew Gillum44Ex-Mayor of TallahasseeOUT 3.20.19No
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Deval Patrick5gEx-Gov MA
OUT 12.5.18/IN 11.14.19
$2.3m$1.4m0.3%13%28%00.1%0.9%0.3%0.3%4Terry McAuliffe33Ex-Gov VAOUT 4.17.19No
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January 1, 2020Andrew Cuomo33Gov NYOUT 4.23.19No
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Joe Biden2aEx-VeepIN 4.25.19$15.7m$9m28.3%3850%93%17219.7%18.4%28.2%38.4%51
12.31.19 RCP, PredictIt, 538
Eric Swallwell55Rep CAOUT 7.8.19Yes
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Elizabeth Warren2bSen MAIN 12.31.18$24.7m$25.7m15.3%1249%83%6613.7%14.2%15.3%9.9%45
12.29.19 Morning Consult
Mike Gravel55Ex-Sen AKOUT 8.6.19Yes
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Bernie Sanders2cSen VTIN 2.19.19$28m$33.7m18.9%2541%92%4818.3%18.2%20.8%13.9%56
12.24.19 Economist/YouGov
Stacy Abrams53Ex-State Sen GAOUT 8.13.19No
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Pete Buttigieg3aMayor of South Bend, ININ 1.23.19$19.2m$23.4m8.3%1429%65%2618.9%14.6%6.5%5.1%35John Hickenlooper52Ex-Gov COOUT 8.15.19Yes
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Amy Klobuchar4aSen MNIN 2.10.19$4.8m$3.7m3.6%621%54%506.7%4.2%3%2.7%22Seth Moulton55Rep MAOUT 8.21.19Yes
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OprahOprahOprahOprahOprahOprahOprahOprahOprah100%OprahOprahOprahOprahOprah1000Jay Inslee43Gov WAOUT 8.23.19Yes
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Cory Booker5aSen NJIN 2.1.19$6m$4.2m2.5%121%63%603%2.3%1.9%3.5%31Kirsten Gillibrand42Sen NYOUT 8.28.19Yes
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Andrew Yang5bGadfly Tech-BroIN 11.6.17$9.9m$6.4m3.6%916%60%03.0%4.1%3.5%2.7%32Bill de Blasio54Mayor NYCOUT 9.20.19Yes
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Tulsi Gabbard5cRep HIIN 1.11.19$3m$2.1m1.8%15%50%02%4.7%1.1%1.8%-8Tim Ryan55Rep OHOUT 10.24.19Yes
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Julian Castro5dEx-HUD SecIN 12.12.18$3.5m$672k1.2%112%53%140.7%0.5%1%0.2%17Beto O'Rourke43Ex-Rep TXOUT 11.1.19Yes
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Vermin Supreme5eBest CandidateIN 8.22.17$19k$1knrnr100%0%0nrnrnrnrnrWayne Messam55Mayor- TallahasseOUT 11.20.19Yes
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Mike Bloomberg5fVelvet Gloved Fascist
OUT 3.5.19/IN 11.7.19
No report
No report
5%814%69%112.1%3.5%nr4.1%15Joe Sestak55ex-Rep PAOUT 12.1.19Yes
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Tom Steyer5gMegadonor
OUT 1.8.19/IN 7.9.19
$2m+$46.6m self funding
$2.6m1%110%51%03.5%3.4%4.7%5.8%19Steve Bullock54Gov MTOUT 12.2.19Yes
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Deval Patrick5hEx-Gov MA
OUT 12.5.18/IN 11.14.19
No report
No report
nr13%29%00%0%nr0.2%5Kamala Harris32Sen CAOUT 12.3.19Yes
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Michael Bennet5iSen COIN 5.2.19$2.1m$1.9m0.4%14%36%120.3%0.1%0.2%0.1%8Julian Castro54Ex-Sec HUDOUT 1.2.20Yes
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John Delaney5jRep DEIN 7.28.17$868k$548k0.6%12%34%60.4%0.4%0.4%0.6%4Marianne Williamson55New Age Retro HippieOUT 1.10.20Yes
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Marianne Williamson5kNew Age Retro HippieIN 11.15.18$3.1m$724k0.3%13%39%00.2%0.4%0.3%0.7%-3Cory Booker52Sen NJOUT 1.13.20Yes
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November 1, 2019CBS DTJohn Delaney55Ex-Rep DEOUT 1.31.20Yes
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Elizabeth Warren2aSen MAIN 12.31.18$24.7m$25.7m21.7%3852%83%5822.7%25%18.5%15.5%720
10.30.19 RCP, PredictIt, 538 ES
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Joe Biden2bEx-VeepIN 4.25.19$15.7m$9m28.0%2150%93%13217.7%21%22.5%35%577
10.28.19 Morning Consult
Date
Format Change Log
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Bernie Sanders2cSen VTIN 2.19.19$28m$33.7m17.3%1341%93%4713.3%20%18%12.8%159
10.30.19 Economist/YouGov
4.25.19
Added Q1 Fundraising & Cash on Hand
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Kamala Harris3aSen CAIN 1.21.19$11.8m$10.5m5.2%525%74%922.7%4%4.5%7%010.13.19 CBS Tracker5.26.19
Moved Oprah to her own tier
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Pete Buttigieg4aMayor of South Bend, ININ 1.23.19$19.2m$23.4m7.0%1727%61%1916.3%8.7%3.5%4%35.26.19
Added 538/RCP data starting 6.1.19
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Cory Booker4bSen NJIN 2.1.19$6m$4.2m1.5%116%63%591.7%1.7%2%3.5%06.18.19
Added PredictIt prices starting 7.1.19
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Amy Klobuchar4cSen MNIN 2.10.19$4.8m$3.7m2.0%315%50%472.7%3%0.5%2%56.27.19
Added Morning Consult weekly tracker's Favorable+Unfavorable
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Beto O'Rourke4dEx-Rep TXIN 3.14.19$4.5m$3.2m2.5%116%63%190.7%1%0.5%1.3%306.27.19
Added Economist/YouGov "considering voting for"
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OprahOprahOprahOprahOprahOprahOprahOprahOprah100%OprahOprahOprahOprahOprahOprah6.27.19
Didn't add my debate grades, but they're real good and cool and obviously you should listen to them when I tell you at length which I'm sure to do because I'm a self important nerd.
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Andrew Yang5aGadfly Tech-BroIN 11.6.17$9.9m$6.4m2.5%813%54%02.7%3.7%3.0%2.3%07.15.19
Added Q2 Fundraising & COH
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Tom Steyer5bMegadonor
OUT 1.8.19/IN 7.9.19
$2m+$46.6m self funding
$2.6m1%25%40%02.7%2.7%3.5%4.5%08.20.19
Added Description of Statistical Categories
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Tulsi Gabbard5cRep HIIN 1.11.19$3m$2.1m1.5%36%44%02.3%2.7%1%1.3%08.31.19
Added links to polls & PredictIt, and Endorsement Scores
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Julian Castro5dEx-HUD SecIN 12.12.18$3.5m$672k0.7%111%53%100.0%0%nrnr010.15.19
Adding Q3 Fundraising Numbers
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Vermin Supreme5eBest CandidateIN 8.22.17$19k$1knrnr100%0%0nrnrnrnr010.30.19
Adding IA/NH/NV/SC polling averages
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Michael Bennett5fSen COIN 5.2.19$2.1m$1.9m0.7%14%32%00.7%0%nr0.5%010.30.19
Adding CBS Early State Delegate projection
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Steve Bullock5hGov MTIN 5.14.19$2.3m$1.4m0%13%30%91.3%0%nrnr012.31.19
Changed state polling averages from RCP to 538
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John Delaney5gRep DEIN 7.28.17$868k$548k0.2%13%32%60.0%0%nrnr012.31.19
Removed CBS projection as not useful
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Marianne Williamson5hNew Age Retro HippieIN 11.15.18$3.1m$724k0.2%11%39%00.30%0%0.5%nr012.31.19
Added Morning Consult Net Favorability ratings
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Joe Sestak5iEx-Rep PAIN 6.24.19$374k$205knrnr1%nl00.0%0.5%nrnr02.1.20
Added Q4 Fundraising.
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Wayne Messam5jMayor of MiramarIN 3.13.19$5.00$31knrnr1%nl0nrnrnrnr0
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October 1, 2019
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Elizabeth Warren2aSen MAIN 12.31.18$19.2m$19.8m21.349548051
9.30.19 RCP Avg, PredictIt, 538 Scores
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Joe Biden2bEx-VeepIN 4.25.19$22m$10.9m27.8224792127
9.23.19 Morning Consult
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Bernie Sanders2cSen VTIN 2.19.19
$18m +$7.7m transferred
$27.3m17.510399336
9.25.19 Economist/YouGov
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Kamala Harris3aSen CAIN 1.21.19$11.8m$13.3m4.74297592
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Cory Booker3bSen NJIN 2.1.19$4.5m$5.4m1.51136559
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Amy Klobuchar3cSen MNIN 2.10.19$3.9m$6.7m1.31125142
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Pete Buttigieg4aMayor of South Bend, ININ 1.23.19$24.9m$22.7m5.37296219
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Beto O'Rourke4bEx-Rep TXIN 3.14.19$3.6m$5.2m2.51166619
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Julian Castro4cEx-HUD SecIN 12.12.18$2.8m$1.1m1.7195610
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OprahOprahOprahOprahOprah$OprahOprahOprah
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Andrew Yang5aGadfly Tech-BroIN 11.6.17$2.8m$847k3.31013560
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Tom Steyer5bMegadonor
OUT 1.8.19/IN 7.9.19
No Reportn/a0.724350
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Tulsi Gabbard5cRep HIIN 1.11.19$1.6m$2.4m135410
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Vermin Supreme5dBest CandidateIN 8.22.17Under $5k>$5knrnr
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Michael Bennett5eSen COIN 5.2.19
$2.8m (+$700k transfered)
$2.2m0.816330
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Steve Bullock5fGov MTIN 5.14.19$2.1m$1.5m0.412309
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Tim Ryan5gRep OHIN 4.4.19$889k$335k0.514410
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John Delaney5hRep DEIN 7.28.17
$800k (+$7.2m self-fundraising)
$7.4m0.513366
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Marianne Williamson5iNew Age Retro HippieIN 11.15.18$1.5m$551k0.313410
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Joe Sestak5jEx-Rep PAIN 6.24.19Under $5k>$5k0.3nr1nr0
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Wayne Messam5kMayor of MiramarIN 3.13.19$50k$31k0.2nr1nr0
90
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September 1, 2019
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Elizabeth Warren2aSen MAIN 12.31.18$19.2m$19.8m16.532537844
8.31.19 PredictIt, RCP Avg, & 538 ES
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Joe Biden2bEx-VeepIN 4.25.19$22m$10.9m28.9264792113
8/26 Morning Consult
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Bernie Sanders2cSen VTIN 2.19.19
$18m +$7.7m transferred
$27.3m17.116419333
Economist/YouGov 8/27
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Kamala Harris2dSen CAIN 1.21.19$11.8m$13.3m712357389
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Cory Booker3aSen NJIN 2.1.19$4.5m$5.4m2.45226358
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Amy Klobuchar3bSen MNIN 2.10.19$3.9m$6.7m0.91114642
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Pete Buttigieg4aMayor of South Bend, ININ 1.23.19$24.9m$22.7m4.68285816
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Julian Castro4bEx-HUD SecIN 12.12.18$2.8m$1.1m1.12165113
100
Beto O'Rourke4cEx-Rep TXIN 3.14.19$3.6m$5.2m2.43196418