Finance forecast RevenYOU - see tabs for + SaaS metrics + yearly overview + important notes.xlsx
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Nr of users based on average growth
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of relevant digital marketplaces, like:
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Netflix, Steam, Amazon Prime,
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Spotify, Apple music, Tinder
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50%sensitivity margin discount on the value of research - 775 1.550 2.325 3.099 5.888 8.677 11.466 14.255 16.370 18.48620.60122.71724.74026.76328.78730.81034.36537.91941.474
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In eurosx 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000
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Profit & Loss18 + Q1 2019Q2 19Q3 19Q4 19Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 20Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 21Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 22Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 23
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Startbase: Number of users, incl sensitivity - 388 775 1.163 1.550 2.944 4.339 5.733 7.128 8.185 9.243 10.301 11.359 12.370 13.382 14.394 15.405 17.183 18.960 20.737
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75%Retention rate Q1 291 581 872 1.162 2.208 3.254 4.300 5.346 6.139 6.932 7.725 8.519 9.278 10.036 10.795 11.554 12.887 14.220
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21%Retention rate Q2811632443256189111.2041.4971.7191.9412.1632.3852.5982.8103.0233.2353.608
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14%Retention rate Q3 541091632174126078039981.1461.2941.4421.5901.7321.8732.0152.157
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Total Retained nr of users 388 678 760 813 2.208 3.254 3.547 3.742 4.799 5.593 5.815 5.963 6.975 7.734 7.946 8.088 9.865 11.198 11.572
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2%Funded account Q1 8 16 23 31 59 87 115 143 164 185 206 227 247 268 288 308 344 379 415
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9%Funded account Q22652781051992933874815526246957678359039721.0401.1601.280
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13%Funded account Q31121324280118157195223252281310338365393421469
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13%Funded account Q471421285479104130149168187207225244262280
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Total nr 1st funded accounts 8 42 86 131 195 328 488 648 801 932 1.053 1.175 1.295 1.413 1.529 1.645 1.776 1.960 2.164
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15%2nd deposit Q1 1 2 3 5 9 13 17 21 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 52 57 62
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15%2nd deposit Q2 4 8 12 16 30 44 58 72 83 94 104 115 125 135 146 156 174 192
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15%2nd deposit Q3 2 3 5 6 12 18 23 29 34 38 42 47 51 55 59 63 70
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Total nr 2nd deposit accounts 1 6 13 20 29 49 73 97 120 140 158 176 194 212 229 247 266 294 325
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45%3rd deposit Q2 3 7 10 14 26 39 52 64 74 83 93 102 111 120 130 139 155 171
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45%3rd deposit Q3 12 24 35 47 89 132 174 216 249 281 313 345 376 406 437 468 522
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45%3rd deposit Q4 5 10 14 19 36 53 70 88 101 114 127 140 152 164 177 189
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Total nr 3rd deposit accounts 3 19 39 59 88 148 220 292 361 419 474 529 583 636 688 740 799 882
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67%4th deposit Q3 5 10 16 21 39 58 77 96 110 124 138 152 166 179 193 206 230
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67%4th deposit Q4 18 35 53 70 133 196 259 322 370 418 466 514 559 605 651 697
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67%4th deposit Q5 7 14 21 28 54 79 105 130 150 169 188 208 226 245 263
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Total nr 4th deposit accounts 5 28 58 88 131 220 327 434 537 624 706 787 868 947 1.024 1.102 1.190
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Total nr of Funded accounts 8 42 86 131 195 328 488 648 801 932 1.053 1.175 1.295 1.413 1.529 1.645 1.776 1.960 2.164
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€ 6Revenue 1st funded accounts 45 240 497 753 1.125 1.890 2.812 3.735 4.619 5.372 6.072 6.772 7.467 8.143 8.813 9.482 10.240 11.296 12.472
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€ 19Revenue 2nd deposit account 22 120 248 376 563 945 1.406 1.868 2.310 2.686 3.036 3.386 3.733 4.072 4.406 4.741 5.120 5.648 6.236
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€ 144Revenue 3rd deposit account - 503 2.701 5.586 8.471 12.659 21.257 31.639 42.021 51.966 60.436 68.311 76.186 84.001 91.614 99.145 106.678 115.203 127.079
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€ 480Revenue 4th deposit account - - 2.494 13.407 27.725 42.039 62.828 105.500 157.025 208.549 257.905 299.942 339.026 378.107 416.895 454.677 492.053 529.438 571.746
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Sum Revenue on transactions - 67 863 5.941 20.123 37.883 57.533 88.304 142.742 205.975 268.574 327.449 378.412 426.412 474.323 521.728 568.045 614.091 661.584 717.533
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€ 32,85Settlements hybrid exchange Y1 255 1.368 2.830
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€ 109,50Settlements hybrid exchange Y2 14.302 21.375 35.893 53.423
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€ 2.669,06Settlements hybrid exchange Y3 1.729.469 2.138.766 2.487.375 2.811.492
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€ 4.448,44Settlements hybrid exchange Y4 5.225.969 5.762.072 6.284.272 6.800.870
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€ 5.338,13Settlements hybrid exchange Y5 8.781.089 9.482.806 10.460.404 11.549.506
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0%
Sales from other sources (exchanges, treasury, advice)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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Net Revenues (EUR) - 322 2.231 8.770 34.425 59.258 93.426 141.727 1.872.211 2.344.740 2.755.948 3.138.941 5.604.381 6.188.484 6.758.596 7.322.598 9.349.134 10.096.897 11.121.988 12.267.039
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noteARPU Average Revenue per paying user (not x 1000)4154102264304285290288929262957298047714778478447905683568456765670
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€ 3,73Cost per install (CPI) Source: emarketer (1.445) (1.445) (1.445) (1.444) (5.201) (5.201) (5.201) (5.201) (3.944) (3.946) (3.944) (3.946) (3.773) (3.773) (3.775) (3.773) (6.630) (6.628) (6.630)27-3
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€ 13,73Cost per Funded Account (106) (572) (1.183) (1.793) (2.680) (4.501) (6.699) (8.897) (11.002) (12.795) (14.463) (16.130) (17.785) (19.396) (20.991) (22.586) (24.390) (26.905) (29.706)
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€ 10,01Cost per next deposit (12) (97) (369) (864) (1.459) (2.247) (3.518) (5.369) (7.394) (9.355) (11.154) (12.759) (14.301) (15.835) (17.346) (18.831) (20.330) (21.977) (23.989)
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Variable aquisition Costs - (1.563) (2.115) (2.997) (4.100) (9.341) (11.950) (15.418) (19.467) (22.341) (26.096) (29.561) (32.835) (35.859) (39.004) (42.112) (45.189) (51.351) (55.510) (60.326)
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0,78Server costs / user/ quarter - (302) (605) (907) (1.209) (2.296) (3.384) (4.472) (5.559) (6.384) (7.210) (8.034) (8.860) (9.649) (10.438) (11.227) (12.016) (13.402) (14.788) (16.175)
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25%Variable costs DEVELOPERS fee & ICT - (17) (216) (1.485) (5.031) (9.471) (14.383) (22.076) (35.686) (51.494) (67.143) (81.862) (94.603) (106.603) (118.581) (130.432) (142.011) (153.523) (165.396) (179.383)
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Variable Production Costs - (319) (820) (2.392) (6.239) (11.767) (17.767) (26.548) (41.245) (57.878) (74.353) (89.897) (103.463) (116.252) (129.018) (141.659) (154.027) (166.925) (180.184) (195.558)
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Contribution Margin - (1.561) (704) 3.381 24.086 38.150 63.709 99.761 1.811.499 2.264.522 2.655.499 3.019.483 5.468.083 6.036.374 6.590.573 7.138.828 9.149.917 9.878.621 10.886.294 12.011.155
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Online relations cost (80) (80) (90) (100) (110) (120) (130) (140) (150) (180) (200) (220) (240) (260) (280) (300) (320) (340) (360) (380)
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Personnel cost (110) (30) (50) (70) (700) (850) (950) (1.150) (1.400) (1.550) (1.800) (1.850) (1.900) (2.050) (2.200) (2.250) (2.400) (2.550) (2.700) (2.850)
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Support cost (30) (60) (90) (110) (260) (275) (290) (305) (320) (335) (350) (365) (380) (395) (410) (425) (440) (455) (470) (485)
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External advice (40) (40) (40) (42) (44) (53) (62) (71) (80) (89) (118) (147) (176) (205) (234) (263) (292) (321) (350) (379)
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Fixed Costs (260) (210) (270) (322) (1.114) (1.298) (1.432) (1.666) (1.950) (2.154) (2.468) (2.582) (2.696) (2.910) (3.124) (3.238) (3.452) (3.666) (3.880) (4.094)
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Gross Margin (260) (1.771) (974) 3.059 22.972 36.852 62.277 98.095 1.809.549 2.262.368 2.653.031 3.016.901 5.465.387 6.033.464 6.587.449 7.135.590 9.146.465 9.874.955 10.882.414 12.007.061
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Admin cost en miscellaneous (40) (400) (400) (400) (500) (500) (500) (500) (600) (700) (700) (700) (800) (800) (900) (900) (600) (700) (700) (700)
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EBITDA (300) (2.171) (1.374) 2.659 22.472 36.352 61.777 97.595 1.808.949 2.261.668 2.652.331 3.016.201 5.464.587 6.032.664 6.586.549 7.134.690 9.145.865 9.874.255 10.881.714 12.006.361
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Depreciation & Amortizations (45) (94) (143) (203) (308) (456) (642) (869) (1.136) (1.445) (1.795) (2.185) (2.616) (3.098) (3.620) (4.186) (4.788) (5.435)
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EBIT (300) (2.171) (1.419) 2.565 22.329 36.149 61.469 97.139 1.808.307 2.260.799 2.651.196 3.014.756 5.462.793 6.030.479 6.583.933 7.131.592 9.142.246 9.870.069 10.876.926 12.000.927
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Tax (25%) 75 543 343 (665) (5.618) (9.088) (15.444) (24.399) (452.237) (565.417) (663.083) (754.050) (1.366.147) (1.508.166) (1.646.637) (1.783.672) (2.286.466) (2.468.564) (2.720.429) (3.001.590)
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NOPAT (225) (1.628) (1.030) 1.995 16.854 27.264 46.333 73.196 1.356.712 1.696.251 1.989.248 2.262.151 4.098.441 4.524.498 4.939.912 5.351.017 6.859.399 7.405.691 8.161.286 9.004.771
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Net income (225) (1.628) (1.030) 1.995 16.854 27.264 46.333 73.196 1.356.712 1.696.251 1.989.248 2.262.151 4.098.441 4.524.498 4.939.912 5.351.017 6.859.399 7.405.691 8.161.286 9.004.771
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Investments18 + Q1 2019Q2 19Q3 19Q4 19Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 20Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 21Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 22Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 23
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Application development200200200200200 400 500 667 817 967 1.117 1.267 1.417 1.567 1.717 1.867 2.017 2.167 2.317 2.467
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Organization development60120120100100 100 100 100 100 100 130 130 130 150250250300250300300
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Security, compliance30100100100100 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400 425 450 475 500 525 550
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Developers Academy30307090200 350 650 850 1.075 1.300 1525 1.750 1.975 2200 2.425 2.650 2875 3.100 3.325 3550
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Total3204504904906001.0501.4751.8672.2672.6673.0973.4973.8974.3174.8175.2175.6676.0176.4676.867
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Cash Flow Statement18 + Q1 2019Q2 19Q3 19Q4 19Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 20Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 21Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 22Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 23
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NOPAT (225) (1.628) (1.030) 1.995 16.854 27.264 46.333 73.196 1.356.712 1.696.251 1.989.248 2.262.151 4.098.441 4.524.498 4.939.912 5.351.017 6.859.399 7.405.691 8.161.286 9.004.771
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CAPEX (320) (450) (490) (490) (600) (1.050) (1.475) (1.867) (2.267) (2.667) (3.097) (3.497) (3.897) (4.317) (4.817) (5.217) (5.667) (6.017) (6.467) (6.867)
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Depreciations & Amortization (45) (94) (143) (203) (308) (456) (642) (869) (1.136) (1.445) (1.795) (2.185) (2.616) (3.098) (3.620) (4.186) (4.788) (5.435)
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Tax benefit incidentals - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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