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Last updated - 3rd June 2020
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We're collecting what we know about the virus and its impacts, and our hypotheses about what that means for products & services as things develop. Check out the 'What is this document?' tab for more info.
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What we know about the virus & global response...Broad ImpactsHypothesised new behaviours, demandHypothesised product & service increased demand, decline in demandSignals, data points, links
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๐Ÿฆ Virus results in fatality for 0.5-3% of pop.๐Ÿก
People Increasingly stay at home
Less commuting
Less retail
Less leisure hospitality
๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆIncrease demand for ecom, home deliveryโžก๏ธ๐Ÿ›Improvements to ecommerce experiences - full funnel, from discovery, choice, fulfilment
https://www.ft.com/content/26416b7a-6a89-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3?shareType=nongift
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๐Ÿฆ Virus is highly contagious, infections can grow exponentiallyโžก๏ธ๐Ÿ›New or better home delivery services
https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/24/ms-teams-deliveroo-deliver-household-essentials-door-coronavirus-lockdown-12448999/
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๐Ÿฆ Virus results in hospitalisation for 5-20% of pop.โžก๏ธ๐ŸššDelivery and fulfilment management platforms
https://blog.apptopia.com/delivery-tracking-unprecedented-april
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๐Ÿฆ 
Virus much more dangerous for older people, and those with pre-existing condiitons
โžก๏ธ๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ”งRetail employee tools - onboarding, task management
https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-to-hire-100-000-warehouse-and-delivery-workers-amid-coronavirus-shutdowns-11584387833
https://twitter.com/coopuk/status/1240592406715777024
https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/business/coronavirus-crisis-leads-asda-take-temporary-roles-and-pay-self-isolating-staff-full-2502351
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๐Ÿฆ Virus can overload healthcare systems, leading to increased mortality๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆPeople move around less day-to-dayโžก๏ธ๐Ÿš—Reduced demand for on demand mobility, public transit
https://twitter.com/MicromobilityCo/status/1243208335748485120
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52137968
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๐Ÿฆ Virus likely spread via droplets/fomites (not aerosol)โžก๏ธ๐Ÿš—Reduced demand for petrol, cars etc.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52137968
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๐Ÿ›Govs are shutting down society to reduce contact between people๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆIncrease demand for home entertainmentโžก๏ธ๐Ÿ“ฐNews, media, games, books etc. that can consumed at home
https://www.businessofapps.com/news/coronavirus-leads-to-surge-in-business-app-downloads-and-30-more-time-in-mobile/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-52048582
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๐Ÿ›Govs are redirecting resources to treatment, lockdown etcโžก๏ธ๐Ÿ†Sex toys, lingerie etc. ecom
https://www.ft.com/content/80e11807-3e0d-4867-9b42-bbe959a071a9?fbclid=IwAR2gcGBRxRKI65eTxH12Z-477NE44kWVkz_yQ8jDc6FZKVzOHAHQI61wwfg
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๐Ÿ›Govs are shutting borders with other nations, forbidding travelโžก๏ธ๐Ÿš‚Reduced demand for 'commute media' - e.g. Podcasts
https://www.niemanlab.org/2020/03/it-appears-people-staying-at-home-all-the-time-is-bad-news-for-podcasting/
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๐Ÿ›Govs are warning of long term impact to economy๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆIncrease demand for home improvementโžก๏ธ๐Ÿ›Home improvement retailers (particularly ecom), services
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-8161585/Surge-DIY-sales-boosts-B-Q-lockdown.html
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๐Ÿ›
Govs are introducing substantial monetary and fiscal policy responses
๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆIncrease in demand for wellness at homeโžก๏ธ๐Ÿ’ชFitness apps, digital wellness services
https://www.appsflyer.com/blog/coronavirus-impact-app-installs-marketing/
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๐Ÿ›Govs are positioning measures and situation as 'wartime'โžก๏ธ๐Ÿ›Healthy eating services and products
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๐Ÿ›
Some govs suggest virus response measures could continue for 18 months
โžก๏ธ๐Ÿ’ชHome gym and fitness equipment ecommerce, leasing services
https://contentsquare.com/blog/articles-and-research/impact-of-coronavirus-on-ecommerce-consumers-settle-into-quarantine/
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๐Ÿ›Govs have shut schools, gyms, restaurants, non-essential retail๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆ
Increase demand for tele-services over face-to-face
โžก๏ธ๐ŸฆWealth, financial advice consultation platforms
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๐Ÿ›Govs have forbidden public gathering (inc weddings, etc.)โžก๏ธ๐ŸขCoaching, teaching, tutoring support platforms
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๐Ÿ›Govs are putting lots of resources into testing and tracing efforts๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆDemand for more work-from-homeโžก๏ธ๐ŸขBespoke secure enterprise tools that work off-site, in employee homes
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๐Ÿ›
Govs are beginning to implement 'transition' strategies to lift lockdown safely
โžก๏ธ๐ŸขBespoke employee collaboration tools
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๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆMany people are now self isolating or social distancingโžก๏ธ๐ŸขRemote work - tooling choices - video, chat, collaboration etc.
https://twitter.com/stewart/status/1243000497566441472
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๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆPeople stockpiled food, groceries and other suppliesโžก๏ธ๐ŸขRemote work ways-of-working help and coaching
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๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆ
People are staying at home, avoiding public gatherings, spending less
๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆDemand for more learning at homeโžก๏ธ๐ŸŽ“MOOC and learning platforms
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๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆPeople have largely cancelled foriegn travel plans๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆPeople eat out lessโžก๏ธ๐Ÿ”Reduced restaurant demand
https://www.safegraph.com/dashboard/covid19-commerce-patterns
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๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆPeople are afraidโžก๏ธ๐Ÿ”Home delivery of prepared food, meals, mealkits etc.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/dominos-expects-to-hire-10000-workers.html
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๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆCulture and public attention is incresingly focused on virus๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆPeople go out less for out of home servicesโžก๏ธ๐Ÿข
Platforms that enable easy set-up and running of on-demand for those relying on high-street shops
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๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆMany more now engaged with digital ways to interact socially๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆ
Increase in spare money for those who stay employed
โžก๏ธ๐ŸฆSavings and investment products for spare cash, 'build a safety net'
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๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆMany are 'home schooling' children๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆIncrease in home schooling of childrenโžก๏ธ๐ŸŽ“Digital school curriculum sharing, lesson and teaching platforms
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๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆ
Flashpoints of public unrest - concurrent or tangentially related (e.g. in US, Hong Kong)
๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆIncrease in demand for clothes only worn at homeโžก๏ธ๐Ÿ›High quality / comfy loungewear fashion
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-24/telemedicine-faces-financial-and-operating-challenges
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๐ŸขOrganisations are cancelling events๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆIncrease in home energy usage โžก๏ธโšก๏ธEnergy saving products/ services (smart thermostats, home energy monitors etc)
https://www.current-news.co.uk/news/covid-19-drives-down-demand-as-lockdown-affects-usage-patterns
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๐ŸขOrganisations are scenario planning & reassessing investmentโžก๏ธโšก๏ธIncreased interest in switching to cheaper tarriffs as usage costs increase
https://www.current-news.co.uk/news/household-energy-demand-jumps-15-as-people-work-from-home
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๐Ÿข
Organisation are considering or executing on lay-offs or furlough schemes
๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆ
Increase in use of phone lines for customer support
โžก๏ธ๐ŸขServices that help companies manage or reduce call-centre spikes in demand
http://x.cd.britishgas.co.uk/ats/msg.aspx?sg1=89b0c61b6bd2b38a33a74bf0119fe980
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๐ŸขEconomy is in the early stages of a recession๐Ÿข
Changing demand on supply chains - more retail, consumer
โžก๏ธ๐Ÿ›More demand for retail FMCG (household toilet paper, cleaning products etc.)
https://marker.medium.com/what-everyones-getting-wrong-about-the-toilet-paper-shortage-c812e1358fe0
https://www.fastcompany.com/90496565/cant-find-toilet-paper-or-flour-this-app-knows-where-to-get-them?utm_campaign=eem524%3A524%3As00%3A20200428_fc&utm_medium=Compass&utm_source=newsletter
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๐Ÿข
Airlines, train cos events, hospitality are feeling pain, callng for support from gov
โžก๏ธ๐Ÿ›More demand for consumer groceries (ingredients, flour in 1.5kg bags)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52212760
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52441772
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๐ŸขSupermarkets and digital media are seeing increase demandโžก๏ธ๐Ÿข
Less demand for office supplies, FMCG products for the commercial market (industrial toilet roll)
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๐ŸขOil has experienced large drops in value as demand fallsโžก๏ธ๐ŸขLess demand for food supplies for the restaurant industry (flour in 25kg bags)
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๐ŸขConsumer spending in general has rapidly dropped๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆIncrease in domestic wasteโžก๏ธ๐Ÿ—‘Domestic waste management, collection and recycling services
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๐Ÿข
Supply chains are heavily impacted - those in China, where the virus emerged, but now everywhere
๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆ
Increase in demand for social-connection, companionship
โžก๏ธ๐ŸฉIncrease in demand for pets, pet supplies etc.
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๐ŸขHigh street orientated retailers are strugglingโžก๏ธ๐Ÿ’ŒIncrease in demand for gifitng and letter sending services
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๐Ÿข
Airlines, retailers, hospitality have rapidly cut costs - rents, wages, etc.
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๐Ÿข
Asset prices are highly volatile - large inflows to cash, safe havens, stock market moves
๐Ÿค’
People get sick and more focused on recovering, or preventing sickness
๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆIncrease in demand for health services at homeโžก๏ธ๐ŸฅTele-health consultations
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๐Ÿข
Increase in need to serve health needs at a distance
โžก๏ธ๐ŸฅDiagnostic sensors, tools for proactive prevention - e.g. thermometers
https://www.businessinsider.com/oura-smart-ring-study-detect-covid-19-coronavirus-symptoms-early-2020-4?r=US&IR=T
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๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆIncrease in demand for medicationโžก๏ธ๐ŸฅHome delivery of pharmaceuticals
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๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆIncrease in hand washing and disinfectingโžก๏ธ๐Ÿ›Easy ways to buy and replenish soap and cleaning products
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๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆ
Increase in demand for tracking locations, symptoms
โžก๏ธ๐ŸฅSymptom tracking platforms
https://www.businessinsider.com/oura-smart-ring-study-detect-covid-19-coronavirus-symptoms-early-2020-4?r=US&IR=T
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โžก๏ธ๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆContact tracing services based on mobile location
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/19/plan-phone-location-data-assist-uk-coronavirus-effort
https://twitter.com/johnrobb/status/1243686008824246272
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/opinion/coronavirus-reopen-america.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
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โžก๏ธ๐ŸŒกThermo-imaging tools to spot potentially ill customers in stores, offices etc
https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2020/03/thermal-camera-market-explodes-coronavirus-spreads/164050/
http://www.airport-business.com/2020/04/etihad-trial-covid-19-triage-contactless-airport-check/
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๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆIncrease in demand for virus testingโžก๏ธ๐ŸงซMobile testing labs to move to meet demand
https://twitter.com/erenbali/status/1250147617134149632
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๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆ
Increase in demand for hygienic or disposable goods
โžก๏ธ๐Ÿ›Plastic or disposable bags to maintain hygiene
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/climate/plastic-bag-ban-virus.html
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๐Ÿ˜ฑ
People are afraid, seek protection from the virus itself, more protection in general, self-sufficiency
๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆ
Increase in demand for financial protection and risk management
โžก๏ธ๐ŸฆInsurance to cover health impacts
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โžก๏ธ๐ŸฆInsurance to cover financial hardship
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โžก๏ธ๐ŸฆInsurance to cover or prevent poor health
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๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆIncrease in demand for 'virus safe' guaranteesโžก๏ธ๐ŸฅHealth services that offer more proactive testing and monitoring
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โžก๏ธ๐ŸฅImmunity passport' services that can guarantee positive antibody tests or recovery
https://techcrunch.com/2020/04/15/onfido-the-ai-based-id-verification-platform-raises-100m-led-by-tpg/
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๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆIncrease in demand for security, safetyโžก๏ธ๐Ÿ›Alarms and home security systems
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โžก๏ธ๐Ÿ›IoT Smart home sensors for staying safe and secure
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๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆIncrease in demand for self-sufficiencyโžก๏ธ๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐ŸŒพGrow-your-own veg tutorials, supplies etc.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8160095/Millions-Good-Life-turning-growing-food.html
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โžก๏ธ๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐ŸŒพDomestic hydroponic farm systems
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โžก๏ธ๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐ŸŒพDomestic livestock supplies,
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/style/chicken-eggs-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
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โžก๏ธ๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐ŸŒพDomestic specialist cookery and culinary tools - e.g. breadmakers
https://www.cityam.com/dixons-carphone-scraps-dividend-but-reports-strong-online-trading-during-coronavirus-lockdown/
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โžก๏ธโšก๏ธHome energy systems such as solar panels and battery storage
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๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆ
Increase in demand for hygienic retail & service experiences
โžก๏ธ๐Ÿ›Virus safe click & collect services
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โžก๏ธ๐Ÿ›
Hygienic self-service terminals - e.g. voice & gesture interactions driven (not touch screen)
http://www.airport-business.com/2020/04/etihad-trial-covid-19-triage-contactless-airport-check/
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โžก๏ธ๐Ÿ›Customer mobile payment in-store (e.g. scan-pay-go services)
https://www.paymentssource.com/news/how-coronavirus-fears-could-accelerate-mobile-self-checkout-in-the-u-k
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โžก๏ธโ„๏ธBuilding cooling and heating technologies that don't require circulating air
https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1251556084424347649
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โžก๏ธ๐Ÿ›In-store / in-experience distancing and hygiene products for retail and leisure
https://www.ft.com/content/7c902798-4d90-4206-9fd4-bafa154ef1e1
https://dutchreview.com/coronavirus/1-5m-society-amsterdam-restaurant-to-offer-four-course-meal-in-individual-glasshouses/
https://twitter.com/IpsosMORI/status/1256146465199730689
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โžก๏ธ๐ŸงนDeep clean guarantees and services for hospitality, retail etc.
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/travel/hotels/2020/04/27/coronavirus-airbnb-mandate-cleaning-24-hours-between-rentals/3024951001/
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๐Ÿ’ธ
People suffer economically
๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆ
Reduced free cash to spend and save for those who lose work
โžก๏ธ๐ŸฆReduce demand for investment & savings products
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โžก๏ธ๐ŸฆReduced transaction volumes on card etc.
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๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆ
Demand for reducing overheads and day-to-day costs
โžก๏ธ๐ŸฆMoney management and finance management tools that focus on reducing costs
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-03/a-300-billion-nordic-manager-reveals-his-new-availability-credo
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โžก๏ธ๐Ÿ›Budgeting or saver ranges of retaill products
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๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆStruggle with household bills โžก๏ธ โšก๏ธPre-pay energy tariffs to tighten control over finances
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โžก๏ธ โšก๏ธ
Proactive measures to ensure customers don't 'slip through the cracks' and fall behind with bills
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๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆDefer large purchases like homes, carsโžก๏ธ๐ŸฆReduce demand for mortgages - UK mortgage holiday option
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/26/homes-sold-in-uk-expected-to-plunge-by-60-in-next-three-months-coronavirus
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โžก๏ธ๐Ÿš—Reduced demand for new cars
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โžก๏ธ๐ŸฆHome improvement loans (don't move, improve trend grows)
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๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆ
Increase in demand for casual work that can be done at home
โžก๏ธ๐ŸขPlatforms for freelance digital work
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๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆ
Increase in demand for retraining as people career shift
โžก๏ธ๐ŸŽ“Platforms for online re-training, boot camps etc.
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โžก๏ธ๐ŸŽ“Income-share-agreement courses and retraining
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๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆ
Increase in demand protection from drop in income
โžก๏ธ๐ŸฆIncome protection insurance
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=GB&q=%22income%20protection%22
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๐Ÿฆนโ€โ™‚๏ธIncrease in fraud and scamming activityโžก๏ธ๐ŸขProactive fraud protection tools and data sensing
https://twitter.com/metpoliceuk/status/1242858786865348609
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/business/coronavirus-ecommerce-sites.html
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๐Ÿ‘ด
Older and vulnerable people shelter from threat, and sadly pass away earlier than expected, in larger numbers
๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆIncrease in demand for virus-safe support servicesโžก๏ธ๐Ÿ›Retail delivery services specifically for vulnerable groups
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/25/supermarkets-use-database-to-prioritise-deliveries-to-elderly?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
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โžก๏ธ๐Ÿ’ฌServices that help alleviate loneliness, help others in lockdown
https://www.verdict.co.uk/facebook-portals-nhs/
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๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆ
Growth in number receiving inheritance and estate planning
โžก๏ธ๐ŸฆDigital wealth management tools for recent inheritors
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-03/a-300-billion-nordic-manager-reveals-his-new-availability-credo
https://www.financial-planning.com/news/ubs-sees-spike-in-digital-engagement-could-it-be-the-new-normal
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๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆGrowth in people thinking about their mortalityโžก๏ธ๐ŸฆLife insurance products
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โžก๏ธ๐ŸฆHealth insurance products
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โœˆ๏ธ
People travel less to avoid infection
๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘งโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆ
Lower demand for foreign or long distance travel with large groups
โžก๏ธโœˆ๏ธReduce demand for air travel, airports etc.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/17/coronavirus-uk-airports-warn-may-have-to-close-unless-government-intervenes
99
โžก๏ธ๐Ÿš‚Reduce demand for long distance train travel
100
โžก๏ธ๐ŸจReduce demand for hotels, car hire etc.