ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAAB
1
Prediction DatePredictionOddsActualResolution DatePrediction Right?Brier ScoreNotes
2
28 Aug 2015Trump wins the 2016 election98%Yes8 Nov 2016Right0.0004
3
12 Sep 2015Kanye West wins the 2032 presidential election90%Unknown2 Nov 2032UnknownUnknown
4
27 Dec 2015we learn of an important Clinton health issue before the general election70%Yes12 Sep 2016Right0.0900
5
14 Jan 2016Cruz wins Iowa 2016 caucus0%Yes1 Feb 2016Wrong1.0000
6
25 Feb 2016Rubio is Trump's 2016 VP pick0%No8 Nov 2016Right0.0000
7
27 Feb 2016Christie is Trump's 2016 VP pick70%No8 Nov 2016Wrong0.4900
8
29 Apr 2016Clinton has sufficient physical health to be considered a viable president on the 2016 election50%Yes8 Nov 2016Indeterminate (50% prediction)0.2500
9
22 Jun 2016Bernie is Trump's 2016 VP pick0%No8 Nov 2016Right0.0000
10
11 Nov 2016Trump would eventually be impeached by a Republican Congress that would prefer a President Mike Pence0%No20 Jan 2021Right0.0000
11
20 Apr 2017Kim Jong-un dies "mysteriously" before the end of summer50%No1 Sep 2017Indeterminate (50% prediction)0.2500
12
20 Dec 2017Trump vetoes the tax bill0%No22 Dec 2017Right0.0000
13
11 Feb 2018GOP wins the 2018 midterms75%No6 Nov 2018Wrong0.5625
14
8 Nov 2018Muellers findings are kept from the public0%No18 Apr 2019Right0.0000
15
17 Dec 2018Trump pardons Flynn100%Yes8 Dec 2020Right0.0000
16
8 Jan 2019Dems nominate Biden in 20200%Yes3 Nov 2020Wrong1.0000
17
21 Jan 2019Beto is the D nominee in 20200%No3 Nov 2020Right0.0000
18
31 May 2019Steele dossier was Russian disinformation90%No?Wrong0.8100
19
15 Feb 2020Bloomberg/Clinton ticket in 20200%No3 Nov 2020Right0.0000
20
7 Mar 2020Adams gets COVID80%Unknown?UnknownUnknown
21
18 Jun 2020Trump wins the 2020 election100%No8 Nov 2020Wrong1.0000
Adams has repeated this prediction many times previously - I only count it once
22
18 Jun 2020Successful coup after 2020 election50%No8 Nov 2020Indeterminate (50% prediction)0.2500
Adams might argue this happened, given his election fraud hypothesis but I mark the event as not happening
23
12 Aug 2020Adam Schiff in jail by 2020 election day60%No3 Nov 2020Wrong0.3600
24
28 Aug 2020Biden is at the top of the ticket on election day 202050%Yes3 Nov 2020Indeterminate (50% prediction)0.2500
25
24 Sep 2020Hydroxychloroquine cures COVID30%NoRight0.0900
26
5 Nov 2020Trump wins the 2020 election (two days after the election happened)60%No8 Nov 2020Wrong0.3600
27
28 Nov 2020History will record that Trump actually won the 2020 election99%Unknown?UnknownUnknown
28
3 Dec 2020If Rs win Georgia Senate runoff races on the first count, the Dems will find a truck of misplaced ballots95%Unknown5 Jan 2021Called off / ambiguous
29
3 Feb 2021Navalny survives his jail sentence0%No16 Feb 2024Right0.0000
30
7 Apr 2021Murder conviction for Chauvin0%Yes20 Apr 2021Wrong1.0000
31
32
Average Brier0.3105 (lower is better)
33
Predictions pulled from this Twitter search and this Google search (though I didn't watch any videos)Total Right46%
34
Compiled by @peterhurford
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100