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1 | Tesla Home Charger CarBnB Revenue Model | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | Model assumes owners are making their spot available when unused (Eg. they are at work), and that once set up, they have near-zero effort required. It is essentially "Free money" to them, which justifies Tesla taking a significant cut | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
3 | The demand and rental rates will differ significantly by location, so the model is built around location profiles in Urban, Suburban, and Rural locations, with High, Medium and Low usage versions of each | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
4 | Blue cells are assumptions which can be edited | Do not edit the other cells as they are formulas which will break the model if modified | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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7 | REVENUE SHARE ASSUMPTIONS | Markup On Utility Rates | Parking Profit Share | This sets the markup on utility power rates and the revenue share of parking betweem the spot owner and Tesla | ||||||||||||||||||||||
8 | Charger Owner (profit after utilities) | 30% | 60% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
9 | Tesla (Gross Revenue) | 20% | 40% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
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11 | CHARGING CALCULATIONS | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
12 | This section calculates only the charging portion of the revenues (not parking) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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14 | UTILITY RATE ASSUMPTIONS | Base electricity | Utility provider fees | Full costs | The default settings here are based on rates in Ontario Canada, but can be edited to any numbers you prefer | |||||||||||||||||||||
15 | Utility Peak Rate ($/KWh) | $0.182 | $0.046 | $0.228 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
16 | Utility Mid Rate ($/KWh) | $0.122 | $0.031 | $0.153 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
17 | Utility Low Rate ($/KWh) | $0.087 | $0.022 | $0.109 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
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19 | RETAIL CHARGING RATE | User Pays | Owner Gets | Tesla Gets | This calculates the rate charged to renters after the markup | |||||||||||||||||||||
20 | Peak rate ($/KWh) | $0.341 | $0.068 | $0.046 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
21 | Mid rate ($/KWh) | $0.229 | $0.046 | $0.031 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
22 | Low Rate ($/KWh) | $0.163 | $0.033 | $0.022 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
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24 | CHARGE COST FOR USER | (30min) | (1hr) | (2hr) | (3hr) | (4hr) | (5hr) | (6hr) | (7hr) | (8hr) | Demonstration of for users cost under various charging usage scenarios | |||||||||||||||
25 | 5.7 KWh | 11.4 KWh | 22.8 KWh | 34.2 KWh | 45.6 KWh | 57. KWh | 68.4 KWh | 79.8 KWh | 91.2 KWh | |||||||||||||||||
26 | Utility Peak Rate | $1.945 | $3.890 | $7.781 | $11.671 | $15.561 | $19.451 | $23.342 | $27.232 | $31.122 | ||||||||||||||||
27 | Utility Mid Rate | $1.304 | $2.608 | $5.216 | $7.823 | $10.431 | $13.039 | $15.647 | $18.254 | $20.862 | ||||||||||||||||
28 | Utility Low Rate | $0.930 | $1.860 | $3.719 | $5.579 | $7.439 | $9.298 | $11.158 | $13.017 | $14.877 | ||||||||||||||||
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30 | CHARGE LOCATION PROFILES (Hrs/Mo assumed) | Urban Heavy | Urban Mid | Urban Low | Suburban Heavy | Suburban Mid | Suburban Low | Rural Heavy | Rural Mid | Rural Low | This sets the CHARGING hours utilization rate for each location profile | |||||||||||||||
31 | Utility Peak Rate | 34.40 Hrs | 22.93 Hrs | 2.67 Hrs | 45.87 Hrs | 11.47 Hrs | 1.33 Hrs | 17.20 Hrs | 8.60 Hrs | 3.00 Hrs | Currently is ballparked as averaging 1/3 of the parking hours (Parking hours set on rows 43-45) | |||||||||||||||
32 | Utility Mid Rate | 22.93 Hrs | 11.47 Hrs | 1.33 Hrs | 17.20 Hrs | 6.00 Hrs | 1.00 Hrs | 17.20 Hrs | 2.87 Hrs | 3.00 Hrs | ||||||||||||||||
33 | Utility Low Rate | 11.47 Hrs | 5.33 Hrs | .00 Hrs | 10.03 Hrs | .00 Hrs | .00 Hrs | 34.40 Hrs | 11.47 Hrs | .00 Hrs | ||||||||||||||||
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35 | ANNUAL PROFIT FROM CHARGING | Urban Heavy | Urban Mid | Urban Low | Suburban Heavy | Suburban Mid | Suburban Low | Rural Heavy | Rural Mid | Rural Low | Calculation of annual revenues from charging | |||||||||||||||
36 | Homeowner (profit after utilities) | $515.89 | $309.69 | $33.24 | $580.67 | $144.61 | $18.71 | $421.77 | $149.41 | $46.79 | Assumes that all charing is at full cpacity 11.4KW rate for the charger | |||||||||||||||
37 | Tesla (Gross Revenue) | $343.92 | $206.46 | $22.16 | $387.11 | $96.41 | $12.47 | $281.18 | $99.61 | $31.19 | ||||||||||||||||
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39 | PARKING CALCULATIONS | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
40 | This section calculates only the parking portion of the revenues (not charging) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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42 | PARK LOCATION PROFILES (Hrs/Mo assumed) | Urban Heavy | Urban Mid | Urban Low | Suburban Heavy | Suburban Mid | Suburban Low | Rural Heavy | Rural Mid | Rural Low | This sets the PARKING hours utilization rate for each location profile | |||||||||||||||
43 | Utility Peak Rate | 103.20 Hrs | 68.80 Hrs | 8.00 Hrs | 137.60 Hrs | 34.40 Hrs | 4.00 Hrs | 51.60 Hrs | 25.80 Hrs | 3.00 Hrs | NOTE: Parking hours of use is expected to be several times the charging use since that is the main advantage to this offering | |||||||||||||||
44 | Utility Mid Rate | 68.80 Hrs | 34.40 Hrs | 4.00 Hrs | 51.60 Hrs | 18.00 Hrs | 3.00 Hrs | 51.60 Hrs | 8.60 Hrs | 3.00 Hrs | Default assumptions are for low utilization rates to ensure model is conservative (click on cells to see formulas behind them which assume hours x days/week x 4.3 weeks per month) | |||||||||||||||
45 | Utility Low Rate | 34.40 Hrs | 16.00 Hrs | .00 Hrs | 30.10 Hrs | .00 Hrs | .00 Hrs | 103.20 Hrs | 34.40 Hrs | .00 Hrs | ||||||||||||||||
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47 | PARKING FEES (Per Hr assumed) | Urban Heavy | Urban Mid | Urban Low | Suburban Heavy | Suburban Mid | Suburban Low | Rural Heavy | Rural Mid | Rural Low | This sets the parking rates per hour and uses for reference the global cities parking rates card shown in the business case | |||||||||||||||
48 | Peak | $3.00 | $2.75 | $2.00 | $1.50 | $1.00 | $0.00 | $0.25 | $0.00 | $0.00 | Baseline assumptions are on the lower side to be conservative | |||||||||||||||
49 | Mid | $3.00 | $2.75 | $2.00 | $1.00 | $0.50 | $0.00 | $0.25 | $0.00 | $0.00 | ||||||||||||||||
50 | Low | $2.50 | $2.50 | $1.00 | $1.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | ||||||||||||||||
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53 | ANNUAL PROFIT FROM PARKING | Urban Heavy | Urban Mid | Urban Low | Suburban Heavy | Suburban Mid | Suburban Low | Rural Heavy | Rural Mid | Rural Low | Calculation of annual revenues from parking | |||||||||||||||
54 | Homeowner (Profit) | $4,334.40 | $2,331.36 | $172.80 | $2,074.32 | $312.48 | $0.00 | $185.76 | $0.00 | $0.00 | ||||||||||||||||
55 | Tesla (Gross Revenue) | $2,889.60 | $1,554.24 | $115.20 | $1,382.88 | $208.32 | $0.00 | $123.84 | $0.00 | $0.00 | ||||||||||||||||
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57 | PARKING CALCULATIONS | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
58 | This section calculates total revenues for the owner and Tesla at each location profile and makes assumptions about the location splity by profile to calculate total Tesla profit per year | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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60 | TOTAL PROFIT PER LOCATION TYPE | Urban Heavy | Urban Mid | Urban Low | Suburban Heavy | Suburban Mid | Suburban Low | Rural Heavy | Rural Mid | Rural Low | Adds the charging + parking totals from above | |||||||||||||||
61 | Homeowner (profit after utilities) | $4,850.29 | $2,641.05 | $206.04 | $2,654.99 | $457.09 | $18.71 | $607.53 | $149.41 | $46.79 | ||||||||||||||||
62 | Tesla (Gross Revenue) | $3,233.52 | $1,760.70 | $137.36 | $1,769.99 | $304.73 | $12.47 | $405.02 | $99.61 | $31.19 | ||||||||||||||||
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64 | LOCATION VOLUME SPLIT BY TYPE | Sets the % of all locations that match each location profile. Allows a weighted average to be calculated for scaling estimates | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
65 | Urban Heavy | Urban Mid | Urban Low | Suburban Heavy | Suburban Mid | Suburban Low | Rural Heavy | Rural Mid | Rural Low | |||||||||||||||||
66 | % of locations | 20.0% | 25.0% | 2.0% | 20.0% | 5.0% | 0.0% | 22.0% | 6.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | |||||||||||||||
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68 | Weighted Average Revenue Per Location per year | $1,553.94 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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70 | SCALE (# of locations worldwide) | Tesla Share of Gross Revenue | Tesla Net Margin | Tesla Net Profit /Yr | Valuation Add @ Current P/E Ratio | Assumed P/E | Shows impact on net profit and company valuation for Tesla as the program scales | |||||||||||||||||||
71 | 50,000 | $77,697,096.84 | 30% | $23,309,129.05 | $2 Bn | 78 | Excluding marketing and minimizing R&D, at a mature state, the 70% margin is based on AirBnB results | |||||||||||||||||||
72 | 100,000 | $155,394,193.68 | 40% | $62,157,677.47 | $5 Bn | R&D could expand to adjacent opportunities, but that is outside the scope of this model | ||||||||||||||||||||
73 | 250,000 | $388,485,484.20 | 50% | $194,242,742.10 | $15 Bn | |||||||||||||||||||||
74 | 500,000 | $776,970,968.40 | 60% | $466,182,581.04 | $36 Bn | |||||||||||||||||||||
75 | 1,000,000 | $1,553,941,936.80 | 70% | $1,087,759,355.76 | $85 Bn | |||||||||||||||||||||
76 | 2,000,000 | $3,107,883,873.60 | 70% | $2,175,518,711.52 | $170 Bn | |||||||||||||||||||||
77 | 3,000,000 | $4,661,825,810.40 | 70% | $3,263,278,067.28 | $255 Bn | |||||||||||||||||||||
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