ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAHAIAJAKALAMANAOAPAQARASATAUAVAWAXAYAZBA
1
Profitability Forecasting Model
2
Explanation Video:
https://www.loom.com/share/67593203a1034d3391aad13134c558d6
3
Make your own copy of this file to fill it out via File -> Make a copy
4
5
Yellow = Input Field
6
7
Input
8
9
2025202620272028
10
CM1 Margin70%<- fill out the yellow fields here and potentially overwrite yellow fields in the table below if neededNew Customers315,378449,654641,099914,054
11
CM2 Margin50%Total Revenue80,464,698120,400,312171,920,117245,204,434
12
CLV First Order (historical)52.56Cum. EBITDA11,556,67418,293,65926,164,96337,332,967
13
CLV Extension (historical)179%Cash Balance12,556,67430,850,33357,015,29794,348,264
14
CLV (historical)146.58
15
16
CLV / CAC Ratio 3.31
17
CAC (historical) 44.33
18
Starting Marketing Budget1,000,000
19
Marketing Budget Growth 3%
20
21
Payback Period (months)1
22
CCC (in months)2
23
24
Starting Cash Balance1,000,000
25
Overhead Costs18%
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
enter and/or overwrite the yellow rows if needed
35
Seasonal effect overwrite: -9.4%-0.1%+10.5%+29.7%-13.0%+21.4%+26.1%-2.3%+11.2%+11.2%-43.3%-0.2%-9.4%-0.1%+10.5%+29.7%-13.0%+21.4%+26.1%-2.3%+11.2%+11.2%-43.3%-0.2%-9.4%-0.1%+10.5%+29.7%-13.0%+21.4%+26.1%-2.3%+11.2%+11.2%-43.3%-0.2%-9.4%-0.1%+10.5%+29.7%-13.0%+21.4%+26.1%-2.3%+11.2%+11.2%-43.3%-0.2%-9.4%-0.1%+10.5%
36
Retention adjustments: 0%0%0%0%0%0%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%
37
38
Start date:
39
Unit Economics01/01/202501/02/202501/03/202501/04/202501/05/202501/06/202501/07/202501/08/202501/09/202501/10/202501/11/202501/12/202501/01/202601/02/202601/03/202601/04/202601/05/202601/06/202601/07/202601/08/202601/09/202601/10/202601/11/202601/12/202601/01/202701/02/202701/03/202701/04/202701/05/202701/06/202701/07/202701/08/202701/09/202701/10/202701/11/202701/12/202701/01/202801/02/202801/03/202801/04/202801/05/202801/06/202801/07/202801/08/202801/09/202801/10/202801/11/202801/12/202801/01/202901/02/202901/03/2029
40
CCC Month1/3/20251/4/20251/5/20251/6/20251/7/20251/8/20251/9/20251/10/20251/11/20251/12/20251/1/20261/2/20261/3/20261/4/20261/5/20261/6/20261/7/20261/8/20261/9/20261/10/20261/11/20261/12/20261/1/20271/2/20271/3/20271/4/20271/5/20271/6/20271/7/20271/8/20271/9/20271/10/20271/11/20271/12/20271/1/20281/2/20281/3/20281/4/20281/5/20281/6/20281/7/20281/8/20281/9/20281/10/20281/11/20281/12/20281/1/20291/2/20291/3/20291/4/20291/5/2029
41
Marketing Budget1,000,0001,030,0001,060,9001,092,7271,125,5091,159,2741,194,0521,229,8741,266,7701,304,7731,343,9161,384,2341,425,7611,468,5341,512,5901,557,9671,604,7061,652,8481,702,4331,753,5061,806,1111,860,2951,916,1031,973,5872,032,7942,093,7782,156,5912,221,2892,287,9282,356,5662,427,2622,500,0802,575,0832,652,3352,731,9052,813,8622,898,2782,985,2273,074,7833,167,0273,262,0383,359,8993,460,6963,564,5173,671,4523,781,5963,895,0444,011,8954,132,2524,256,2194,383,906
42
CAC45.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.00
43
New Customers 22,222 22,889 23,576 24,283 25,011 25,762 26,534 27,331 28,150 28,995 29,865 30,761 31,684 32,634 33,613 34,621 35,660 36,730 37,832 38,967 40,136 41,340 42,580 43,857 45,173 46,528 47,924 49,362 50,843 52,368 53,939 55,557 57,224 58,941 60,709 62,530 64,406 66,338 68,329 70,378 72,490 74,664 76,904 79,211 81,588 84,035 86,557 89,153 91,828 94,583 97,420
44
CLV First Order52.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.5652.56
45
Total Net Revenue 4,621,072 5,312,851 5,922,280 6,788,911 5,615,662 7,087,617 7,993,199 7,076,340 7,927,510 8,164,165 5,827,985 8,127,106 7,912,821 8,633,958 9,477,040 10,784,260 8,658,063 10,902,526 11,490,511 10,086,651 11,234,321 11,526,742 8,231,679 11,461,741 11,184,824 12,229,529 13,427,723 15,324,258 12,345,852 15,573,074 16,437,537 14,435,204 16,093,881 16,573,827 11,836,209 16,458,198 16,006,210 17,464,513 19,144,723 21,848,728 17,602,233 22,203,480 23,435,998 20,581,150 22,946,026 23,630,315 16,875,604 23,465,455 22,821,029 24,900,219 17,055,899
46
Net Revenue New Customers
2,335,793 2,405,867 2,478,043 2,552,384 2,628,956 2,707,824 2,789,059 2,872,731 2,958,913 3,047,680 3,139,111 3,233,284 3,330,283 3,430,191 3,533,097 3,639,090 3,748,262 3,860,710 3,976,532 4,095,827 4,218,702 4,345,263 4,475,621 4,609,890 4,748,187 4,890,632 5,037,351 5,188,472 5,344,126 5,504,450 5,669,583 5,839,671 6,014,861 6,195,307 6,381,166 6,572,601 6,769,779 6,972,872 7,182,058 7,397,520 7,619,446 7,848,029 8,083,470 8,325,974 8,575,753 8,833,026 9,098,017 9,370,957 9,652,086 9,941,648 2,933,293
47
Net Revenue Repeat Customers
2,285,279 2,906,984 3,444,237 4,236,527 2,986,706 4,379,792 5,204,140 4,203,609 4,968,597 5,116,484 2,688,874 4,893,822 4,582,538 5,203,766 5,943,944 7,145,170 4,909,801 7,041,816 7,513,979 5,990,824 7,015,619 7,181,478 3,756,057 6,851,851 6,436,637 7,338,896 8,390,372 10,135,786 7,001,726 10,068,625 10,767,954 8,595,534 10,079,020 10,378,521 5,455,043 9,885,598 9,236,432 10,491,641 11,962,664 14,451,208 9,982,788 14,355,451 15,352,528 12,255,176 14,370,273 14,797,289 7,777,587 14,094,498 13,168,943 14,958,571 14,122,606
48
49
COGS- 1,776,684 - 2,036,673 - 1,684,698 - 2,126,285 - 2,397,960 - 2,122,902 - 2,378,253 - 2,449,249 - 1,748,395 - 2,438,132 - 2,373,846 - 2,590,187 - 2,843,112 - 3,235,278 - 2,597,419 - 3,270,758 - 3,447,153 - 3,025,995 - 3,370,296 - 3,458,023 - 2,469,504 - 3,438,522 - 3,355,447 - 3,668,859 - 4,028,317 - 4,597,277 - 3,703,756 - 4,671,922 - 4,931,261 - 4,330,561 - 4,828,164 - 4,972,148 - 3,550,863 - 4,937,459 - 4,801,863 - 5,239,354 - 5,743,417 - 6,554,618 - 5,280,670 - 6,661,044 - 7,030,799 - 6,174,345 - 6,883,808 - 7,089,094 - 5,062,681 - 7,039,637 - 6,846,309 - 7,470,066 - 5,116,770 - -
50
CM1 2,844,388 3,276,178 4,237,581 4,662,626 3,217,702 4,964,715 5,614,946 4,627,091 6,179,115 5,726,033 3,454,139 5,536,919 5,069,708 5,398,680 6,879,621 7,513,502 5,210,910 7,876,530 8,120,215 6,628,629 8,764,817 8,088,219 4,876,232 7,792,883 7,156,507 7,632,251 9,723,968 10,652,336 7,414,591 11,242,513 11,609,373 9,463,056 12,543,018 11,636,368 7,034,346 11,218,844 10,262,794 10,909,894 13,864,053 15,187,684 10,571,434 16,029,135 16,552,190 13,492,055 17,883,345 16,590,678 10,029,295 15,995,390 17,704,259 24,900,219 17,055,899
51
CM1 Margin70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%
52
53
Logistic & Transaction Costs- 924,214 - 1,062,570 - 1,184,456 - 1,357,782 - 1,123,132 - 1,417,523 - 1,598,640 - 1,415,268 - 1,585,502 - 1,632,833 - 1,165,597 - 1,625,421 - 1,582,564 - 1,726,792 - 1,895,408 - 2,156,852 - 1,731,613 - 2,180,505 - 2,298,102 - 2,017,330 - 2,246,864 - 2,305,348 - 1,646,336 - 2,292,348 - 2,236,965 - 2,445,906 - 2,685,545 - 3,064,852 - 2,469,170 - 3,114,615 - 3,287,507 - 2,887,041 - 3,218,776 - 3,314,765 - 2,367,242 - 3,291,640 - 3,201,242 - 3,492,903 - 3,828,945 - 4,369,746 - 3,520,447 - 4,440,696 - 4,687,200 - 4,116,230 - 4,589,205 - 4,726,063 - 3,375,121 - 4,693,091 - 4,564,206 - 4,980,044 - 3,411,180
54
CM2 2,310,536 2,656,425 2,961,140 3,394,456 2,807,831 3,543,808 3,996,600 3,538,170 3,963,755 4,082,082 2,913,992 4,063,553 3,956,410 4,316,979 4,738,520 5,392,130 4,329,032 5,451,263 5,745,255 5,043,326 5,617,160 5,763,371 4,115,839 5,730,871 5,592,412 6,114,764 6,713,862 7,662,129 6,172,926 7,786,537 8,218,769 7,217,602 8,046,941 8,286,914 5,918,105 8,229,099 8,003,105 8,732,256 9,572,361 10,924,364 8,801,117 11,101,740 11,717,999 10,290,575 11,473,013 11,815,157 8,437,802 11,732,728 11,410,514 12,450,110 8,527,949
55
CM2 New Customers1,167,8971,202,9331,239,0211,276,1921,314,4781,353,9121,394,5301,436,3651,479,4561,523,8401,569,5551,616,6421,665,1411,715,0961,766,5481,819,5451,874,1311,930,3551,988,2662,047,9142,109,3512,172,6322,237,8112,304,9452,374,0932,445,3162,518,6762,594,2362,672,0632,752,2252,834,7922,919,8353,007,4303,097,6533,190,5833,286,3003,384,8893,486,4363,591,0293,698,7603,809,7233,924,0144,041,7354,162,9874,287,8774,416,5134,549,0084,685,4794,826,0434,970,8241,466,647
56
CM2 Repeat Customers 1,142,640 1,453,492 1,722,118 2,118,263 1,493,353 2,189,896 2,602,070 2,101,804 2,484,299 2,558,242 1,344,437 2,446,911 2,291,269 2,601,883 2,971,972 3,572,585 2,454,900 3,520,908 3,756,990 2,995,412 3,507,809 3,590,739 1,878,029 3,425,926 3,218,319 3,669,448 4,195,186 5,067,893 3,500,863 5,034,312 5,383,977 4,297,767 5,039,510 5,189,260 2,727,522 4,942,799 4,618,216 5,245,820 5,981,332 7,225,604 4,991,394 7,177,726 7,676,264 6,127,588 7,185,136 7,398,644 3,888,794 7,047,249 6,584,471 7,479,285 7,061,303
57
CM2 Margin50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%
58
59
CM3 1,310,536 1,626,425 1,900,240 2,301,729 1,682,322 2,384,534 2,802,547 2,308,296 2,696,985 2,777,309 1,570,076 2,679,319 2,530,649 2,848,445 3,225,930 3,834,163 2,724,325 3,798,415 4,042,822 3,289,820 3,811,049 3,903,076 2,199,736 3,757,284 3,559,618 4,020,986 4,557,270 5,440,840 3,884,998 5,429,972 5,791,506 4,717,522 5,471,858 5,634,578 3,186,199 5,415,237 5,104,827 5,747,030 6,497,578 7,757,337 5,539,079 7,741,841 8,257,303 6,726,058 7,801,561 8,033,561 4,542,758 7,720,833 7,278,262 8,193,890 4,144,043
60
CM3 Margin28.4%30.6%32.1%33.9%30.0%33.6%35.1%32.6%34.0%34.0%26.9%33.0%32.0%33.0%34.0%35.6%31.5%34.8%35.2%32.6%33.9%33.9%26.7%32.8%31.8%32.9%33.9%35.5%31.5%34.9%35.2%32.7%34.0%34.0%26.9%32.9%31.9%32.9%33.9%35.5%31.5%34.9%35.2%32.7%34.0%34.0%26.9%32.9%31.9%32.9%24.3%
62
63
Overhead- 831,793 - 956,313 - 1,066,010 - 1,222,004 - 1,010,819 - 1,275,771 - 1,438,776 - 1,273,741 - 1,426,952 - 1,469,550 - 1,049,037 - 1,462,879 - 1,424,308 - 1,554,112 - 1,705,867 - 1,941,167 - 1,558,451 - 1,962,455 - 2,068,292 - 1,815,597 - 2,022,178 - 2,074,814 - 1,481,702 - 2,063,113 - 2,013,268 - 2,201,315 - 2,416,990 - 2,758,366 - 2,222,253 - 2,803,153 - 2,958,757 - 2,598,337 - 2,896,899 - 2,983,289 - 2,130,518 - 2,962,476 - 2,881,118 - 3,143,612 - 3,446,050 - 3,932,771 - 3,168,402 - 3,996,626 - 4,218,480 - 3,704,607 - 4,130,285 - 4,253,457 - 3,037,609 - 4,223,782 - 4,107,785 - 4,482,039 - 3,070,062
64
EBITDA 478,743 670,112 834,230 1,079,725 671,503 1,108,763 1,363,772 1,034,555 1,270,033 1,307,759 521,039 1,216,440 1,106,342 1,294,333 1,520,063 1,892,996 1,165,874 1,835,961 1,974,530 1,474,222 1,788,871 1,828,263 718,034 1,694,171 1,546,349 1,819,671 2,140,280 2,682,474 1,662,745 2,626,818 2,832,749 2,119,185 2,574,959 2,651,289 1,055,682 2,452,761 2,223,709 2,603,417 3,051,528 3,824,566 2,370,677 3,745,215 4,038,823 3,021,451 3,671,276 3,780,105 1,505,150 3,497,051 3,170,477 3,711,851 1,073,982
65
Cumulative EBITDA478,7431,148,8551,983,0853,062,8103,734,3124,843,0766,206,8477,241,4028,511,4359,819,19510,340,23411,556,67412,663,01613,957,34815,477,41117,370,40718,536,28120,372,24222,346,77223,820,99425,609,86627,438,12928,156,16229,850,33331,396,68333,216,35435,356,63438,039,10839,701,85342,328,67145,161,42047,280,60549,855,56552,506,85453,562,53656,015,29758,239,00660,842,42363,893,95167,718,51770,089,19373,834,40877,873,23180,894,68384,565,95988,346,06489,851,21393,348,26496,518,741100,230,592101,304,573
66
EBITDA Margin10.4%12.6%14.1%15.9%12.0%15.6%17.1%14.6%16.0%16.0%8.9%15.0%14.0%15.0%16.0%17.6%13.5%16.8%17.2%14.6%15.9%15.9%8.7%14.8%13.8%14.9%15.9%17.5%13.5%16.9%17.2%14.7%16.0%16.0%8.9%14.9%13.9%14.9%15.9%17.5%13.5%16.9%17.2%14.7%16.0%16.0%8.9%14.9%13.9%14.9%6.3%
67
68
Cash Balance 1,478,743 2,148,855 2,983,085 4,062,810 4,734,312 5,843,076 7,206,847 8,241,402 9,511,435 10,819,195 11,340,234 12,556,674 13,663,016 14,957,348 16,477,411 18,370,407 19,536,281 21,372,242 23,346,772 24,820,994 26,609,866 28,438,129 29,156,162 30,850,333 32,396,683 34,216,354 36,356,634 39,039,108 40,701,853 43,328,671 46,161,420 48,280,605 50,855,565 53,506,854 54,562,536 57,015,297 59,239,006 61,842,423 64,893,951 68,718,517 71,089,193 74,834,408 78,873,231 81,894,683 85,565,959 89,346,064 90,851,213 94,348,264 97,518,741 101,230,592 102,304,573
69
70
71
CLV 90d 81.04 81.33 75.53 72.64 78.31 78.20 75.32 77.21 72.77 68.65 73.94 80.49 83.89 84.21 77.83 74.64 79.85 78.20 75.32 77.21 72.77 68.65 73.94 80.49 83.89 84.21 77.83 74.64 79.85 78.20 75.32 77.21 72.77 68.65 73.94 73.39 75.57 84.21 77.83 74.64 79.85 78.20 75.32 77.21 72.77 68.65 73.94 80.49
72
CLV 180d 91.28 94.15 94.82 92.06 96.66 94.55 90.89 91.22 89.51 85.87 93.36 92.33 95.16 97.65 97.83 94.06 98.21 94.55 90.89 91.22 89.51 85.87 93.36 92.33 95.16 97.65 97.83 94.06 98.21 94.55 90.89 91.22 89.51 85.87 93.36 92.33 95.16 97.65 97.83 94.06 98.21 94.55 90.89 91.22 89.51
73
CLV 365d 116.47 117.83 118.53 115.74 120.91 120.14 117.38 119.26 117.41 113.89 120.54 118.32 120.35 121.33 121.54 117.74 122.45 120.14 117.38 119.26 117.41 113.89 120.54 118.32 120.35 121.33 121.54 117.74 122.45 120.14 117.38 119.26 117.41 113.89 120.54 118.32 120.35 121.33 121.54
74
CAC45.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.0045.00
75
CLV 365d / CAC2.592.622.632.572.692.672.612.652.612.532.682.632.672.702.702.622.722.672.612.652.612.532.682.632.672.702.702.622.722.672.612.652.612.532.682.632.672.702.70
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101