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PersonSubfieldYear AskedDistance in 20 yearsAcceleration
Resulting estimate for all of AI
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A few UAI attendees5-10%20120.075~0238.6666667
3
Melanie MitchellAnalogical reasoning20120.05~0372
4
Murray ShanahanKnowledge representation20120.1~0172
5
Wendy HallComputer-assisted training20130.011973
6
Claire Cardie (and Peter Norvig agrees in ’14)
Natural language processing20130.273
7
Boi Faltings (and Peter Norvig agrees in ’14)
Constraint satisfaction2013
Past human-level 20 years ago
8
Aaron Dollar
robotic grasping manipulation
2014< 0.01positive
9
Peter Norvig*2014
10
Timothy Meese
early human vision processing
20140.05negative374
11
Francesca Rossiconstraint reasoning20150.1negative175
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Margret Bodenno particular subfield20150.05375
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David Kelleybig data analysis20150.05positive375
14
Henry Kautzconstraint satisfaction2015
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Henry Kautzlanguage20150.1positive175
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Jeff Legaultrobotics20160.05positive376
17
Thore Husfeldt
human-understandable explanation
2017< 0.005
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19
Average425.3333333
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Median372
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32
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82
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91
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96
97
98
99
100