Hanson HLAI Survey

	A	B	C	D	E	F
1	Person	Subfield	Year Asked	Distance in 20 years	Acceleration	Resulting estimate for all of AI
2	A few UAI attendees	5-10%	2012	0.075	~0	238.6666667
3	Melanie Mitchell	Analogical reasoning	2012	0.05	~0	372
4	Murray Shanahan	Knowledge representation	2012	0.1	~0	172
5	Wendy Hall	Computer-assisted training	2013	0.01		1973
6	Claire Cardie (and Peter Norvig agrees in ’14)	Natural language processing	2013	0.2		73
7	Boi Faltings (and Peter Norvig agrees in ’14)	Constraint satisfaction	2013	Past human-level 20 years ago
8	Aaron Dollar	robotic grasping manipulation	2014	< 0.01	positive
9	Peter Norvig	*	2014
10	Timothy Meese	early human vision processing	2014	0.05	negative	374
11	Francesca Rossi	constraint reasoning	2015	0.1	negative	175
12	Margret Boden	no particular subfield	2015	0.05		375
13	David Kelley	big data analysis	2015	0.05	positive	375
14	Henry Kautz	constraint satisfaction	2015
15	Henry Kautz	language	2015	0.1	positive	175
16	Jeff Legault	robotics	2016	0.05	positive	376
17	Thore Husfeldt	human-understandable explanation	2017	< 0.005
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19					Average	425.3333333
20					Median	372
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