Poll Dancing: How accurate are the polls?
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Labour% point proximity to final resultConservative% point proximity to final resultLib Dems (Liberal/SDP in '87)% point proximity to final resultaverage accuracyOtherPoll Dateresearch: James Key, David McCandless, Cal Flyn http://www.informationisbeautiful.net
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2010 Election
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1 Year28139-2.92032.313333333145-7 May 2010http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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6 Months29042-5.91943.31013-15 November 2010http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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3 Months29040-3.92121.9666666671022-24 January 2010http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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1 Month33-437-0.92122.391-3 April 2010http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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1 Week281333.128-53.0333333331230 April - 2 May 2010http://spreadsheets1.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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1 Day281360.126-31.366666667103-4 May 2010http://spreadsheets1.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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AVERAGE293823
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Actual Share of Vote29.0036.1023.00126 May 2010http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/
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Actual Number of Seats25830657146 May 2010http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/
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Actual Share of Seats39.69%47.08%8.77%2.15%6 May 2010
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2005 Election
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1 Year370.833-0.221-1.60.87820-23 May 2004http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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6 Months381.830-3.222-0.61.871012-14 November 2004http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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3 Months381.832-1.221-1.61.53921-23 January 2005http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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1 Month370.8340.821-1.61.0781-3 April 2005http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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1 Week403.833-0.220-2.62.20724-26 April 2005http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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1 Day381.832-1.222-0.61.2081-3 May 2005http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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AVERAGE381.832.33-0.721.17-1.6
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Actual Share of Vote36.233.222.6805/05/2005http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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Actual Number of Seats356198623005/05/2005http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2005
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Actual Share of Seats55.11%30.65%9.60%4.64%05/05/2005http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2005
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2001 Election
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1 Year431.0032-0.7017-1.801.17823-26 June 2000http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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6 Months442.00341.3016-2.802.0361-3 December 2000http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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3 Months442.00352.3016-2.802.37616-19 March 2001http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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1 Month486.0032-0.7015-3.803.50510-11 May 2001http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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1 Week464.00341.3015-3.803.03531 May - 1 June 2001http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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1 Day431.0032-0.70190.200.6362-4 June 2001http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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AVERAGE44.672.6733.170.4716.33-2.47
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Actual Share of Vote4232.718.86.507/06/2001http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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Actual Number of Seats413166521007/06/2001http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2001
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Actual Share of Seats64.43%25.90%8.11%1.56%07/06/2001http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2001
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1997 Election
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1 Year450.6028-3.40213.802.6053-5 May 1996http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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6 Months472.60342.6015-2.202.4741-2 November 1996http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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3 Months483.60320.6015-2.202.13431 Jan-2 Feb 1997http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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1 Month461.60320.6017-0.202.40529-31 March 1997http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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1 Week42-2.40375.6014-3.203.73620-21 April 1997http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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1 Day43-1.40331.60180.801.27629-30 April 1997http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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AVERAGE45.170.7732.671.2716.67-0.53
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Actual Share of Vote44.431.417.2701/05/1997http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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Actual Number of Seats418165463001/05/1997http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1997
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Actual Share of Seats63.43%25.04%6.98%4.55%01/05/1997http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1997
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1992 Election
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1 Year43391355-6 April 1991http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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6 Months43411211-12 Oct 1992http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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3 Months414212410-11 Jan 1992http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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1 Month42391546-7 March 1992http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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1 Week413718431/03/1992http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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1 Day383820408/04/1992http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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AVERAGE41.3339.3315
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Actual Share of Vote354313409/04/1992http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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Actual Number of Seats336271202409/04/1992http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1992
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Actual Share of Seats51.61%41.63%3.07%3.69%09/04/1992http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1992
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1987 Election
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1 Year3933262June 1986http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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6 Months3839212December 1986http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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3 Months3238273March 1987http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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1 Month29432538-12 May 1987http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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1 Week344420204/06/1987http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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1 Day324323210/06/1987http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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AVERAGE344023.67
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Actual Share of Vote324323211/06/1987http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=phNtm3LmDZEO8F79tf8B0fg
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Actual Number of Seats376229222311/06/1987http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1987
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Actual Share of Seats57.85%35.23%3.38%3.54%11/06/1987http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1987
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