Sonoma/Petaluma Coronavirus Estimates
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Population500,000
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Est Impact60%
UK:60% 21 march statement, 70% based on press statements by WHO
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Affected Population300,000Caveat: I am not a doctor or health-care professional. As of today, 4 April, these estimates are higher than those from the county, which predicts similar timing but hospitalization, at peak, of some 1500 Sonoma County residents (link below). The disparities are probably due to "down pressure" on the curve coming from large numbers of undiagnosed, low-symptom cases -- perhaps as many as 8x the documented cases.
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(Petaluma)6500013%
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Hospital beds/10002.2
national average (not 2.8?)
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Est Available Beds1416
press democrat
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ICU/Respirators140
press democrat (was Dartmouth study)
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Cases needing hospital17%
Press Democrat CA Avg
Press Democrat Story on Modeling
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Hospital Ventilator/ICU Need
20%guessIHME Predictions for California - 7 April
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Mortality3.4%
of presenting cases (WHO 3 March)
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Initial Growth Rate (03/2020)
1.311
based on March 2020 worldometer data for USA: increase per day
County Site
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Current Growth Rate
1.001
Daily Growth in Sonoma County Over the Past Seven Days
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possible undiagnosed factor
7.143
estimate of untested carriers, as a multiple of tested
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Growth Rate Over Multiple Days:29632
documented Sonoma cases as of today
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number of daysoriginal growthcurrent
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76.61.01
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1444.11.01
Current Doubling Time:
778.96
days until 55,728 cases
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303337.81.03
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6011140646.91.05
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if you met this many people, would one be infected?
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DateEstimated CasesActualnew caseshospitalized +1wkventilator demandtotal deaths + 2wk(peta. deaths)uninfected25102035
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3/133399.99%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.2%
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3/2022221900%99.95%0.1%0.3%0.5%1.0%1.8%
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3/2754543200%099.87%0.3%0.6%1.3%2.5%4.4%
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4/310510551172%099.75%0.5%1.2%2.5%4.9%8.4%
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4/1014514540203%1099.65%1%2%3%6.7%11%
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4/1718018035213%3099.57%1%2%4%8.2%14%
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4/2421721737183%4099.48%1%3%5%9.8%17%
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5/124824831172%6099.41%1%3%6%11.2%19%
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5/830030052203%7099.29%1%4%7%13.4%22%
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5/1536436464243%8199.13%2%4%8%16.0%26%
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5/22467467103365%10198.89%2%5%11%20.0%32%
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5/2954854881416%12198.70%3%6%12%23.1%37%
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6/562462476436%15198.51%3%7%14%25.9%41%
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6/1272272298426%18298.28%3%8%16%29.3%45%
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6/19835835113477%21298.01%4%10%18%33.1%50%
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6/26104910492147010%24397.50%5%12%22%39.7%59%
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7/3130913092609714%28396.88%6%15%27%46.9%67%
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7/101650165034113519%35496.07%8%18%33%55.1%75%
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7/172068206841816924%44595.08%10%22%40%63.6%83%
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7/242466246639819227%56794.13%11%26%45%70.2%88%
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7/312944294447821531%70992.99%14%30%52%76.6%92%
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8/73431343148722732%831091.83%16%35%57%81.8%95%
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8/144157415772628140%1001390.10%
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8/214942494278533348%1161588.23%
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8/285588558864635951%1411886.70%
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9/46241624165334750%1682185.14%
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9/116623662338228040%1892484.23%
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9/186987698736423333%2122783.36%
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9/257320732033317926%2252982.57%
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10/27752775243218827%2373081.54%
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10/98270827051821330%2483280.31%
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10/168717871744723233%2633479.25%
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10/239163916344623534%2813678.18%
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10/309646964648322933%2963877.03%
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11/6101701017052424235%3114075.79%
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11/13107471074757726438%3274274.41%
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11/20113631136361628641%3454472.95%
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11/27121581215879533147%3654771.05%
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12/4130981309894039156%3865068.81%
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12/111428214282118448669%4135366.00%
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12/181619316193191167296%4455761.45%
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12/2517980179801787813116%4856357.19%
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1/119360193601380846121%5507153.90%
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1/821067210671707812116%6117949.84%
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1/1523089230892022851122%6588545.03%
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1/2224573245731484868124%7169341.49%
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1/2925825258251252793113%78510238.51%
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2/5265952659577058483%83510836.68%
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2/12271332713353842661%87811435.40%
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2/19275422754240928641%90411734.42%
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2/26279872798744523233%92211933.36%
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3/5283262832633919828%93612132.56%
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3/12286662866634018727%95112331.75%
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3/19289142891424815422%96312531.16%
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3/26291222912220813219%97412630.66%
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4/2293102931018810715%98312730.21%
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4/929472294721629313%99012829.83%
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4/1629658588%99612929.38%
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4/2329844274%100213028.94%
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4/303003000%100813128.50%
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5/73021800%101413128.05%
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5/143040700%102113227.60%
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5/213059700%102713327.15%
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5/283078800%103313426.70%
86
6/43098000%104013526.24%
87
6/113117400%104613525.78%
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6/183136900%105313625.31%
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6/253156500%105913724.85%
90
7/23176200%106613824.38%
91
7/93196000%107313923.90%
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7/163216000%107914023.43%
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7/233236100%108614122.95%
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00%1093142
95
00%1100143
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00%00
97
00%00
98
00%00
99
00%00
100
00%00