Month 94 - Food and Agriculture Companies - Spring 2019 Update
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Companies Ranked by Finance Value (Column E)TickerReward = 10-Yr Total Return/YrRisk Aversion = 2018 Total Return (worst year for S&P 500 of decade)Finance Value = Col C + Col D5-Yr Total Return/YrDiv Yield5-Yr Div Growth3-Yr BetaP/EBMW Method 16-Yr CAGR (Px only)Recent Px TrendBMW Method Est. Loss @ -2SDROCEWACCLT-Debt: Total AssetsLT-Debt: Total CapitalTotal Debt: EBITDATBV:PxDiv:FCFS&P Bond RatingS&P Stock Rating (Stars)Px (50d avg)Shares BOTAmountNet Present Value @ 10-Yr Holding Period & 10% Discount RateGraham NumberPx (50d avg): Graham NumberPx: Book7-Yr P/EValue StockS&P Insider ActivityMorningstar RatingMarket Cap ($B)Dividend AchieverSCORE: Basic Quality ScreenThe 2 and 8 Club
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McCormickMKC20.5%40.0%60.5%18.5%1.5%9.0%03114.4%up 2SD25%11.4%3.0%40%52%428%-21%42%BBBA+/L (3)$138.6536$4,991.40$2,734.37$52.90262%6.036neutralovervalued (1)$20yes1.5
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Hormel FoodsHRL20.5%20.0%40.5%12.9%2.0%1.0%-0.112418.8%down 1SD27%16.1%2.0%7%10%47%7%46%AA+/M (2)$42.85117$5,013.45$5,998.46$20.44210%4.032favorableovervalued (2)$22yes3.5
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CSXCSX25.8%11.8%37.6%25.5%1.3%8.5%1.352122.1%on trendline37%13.1%9.9%39%54%247%19%26%BBB+A+/M (4)$73.2568$4,981.00$9,187.60$36.42201%5.227favorablefairly valued (3)$64yes4
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DeereDE18.1%19.4%37.5%14.9%1.9%7.3%1.021614.0%on trendline35%11.5%4.2%39%51%598%12%no FCFAB+/M (3)$161.2631$4,999.06$2,540.81$91.23177%4.623yesfavorablefairly valued (3)$514
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Costco WholesaleCOST21.1%9.3%30.4%19.7%1.0%13.0%1.073115.3%up 1SD26%21.8%8.2%17%35%117%12%25%A+A/L (3)$227.5122$5,005.22$3,135.51$74.30291%7.643unfavorableovervalued (1)$106yes3.5
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Union PacificUNP24.9%4.0%28.9%16.0%2.1%0.2%1.272121.4%on trendline29%15.5%8.6%35%49%209%16%44%A-A/M (2)$166.0930$4,982.70$8,524.66$70.81235%6.025unfavorablefairly valued (3)$122yes4
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Norfolk SouthernNSC22.2%3.8%26.0%19.8%1.8%9.8%1.42015.6%up 1SD31%11.6%10.3%30%40%226%32%48%BBB+A/M (3)$182.8027$4,935.60$3,598.69$110.73165%3.423yesunfavorableundervalued (3)$524
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SyscoSYY15.6%5.9%21.5%17.3%2.4%6.1%0.73259.0%up 2SD35%20.9%6.2%42%70%266%-7%49%BBB+B+/L (3)$66.5675$4,992.00$113.06$16.31408%15.737neutralovervalued (2)$35yes1.5
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Coca-ColaKO12.0%7.6%19.6%6.6%3.4%5.6%0.273110.0%down 1SD20%17.9%3.9%30%42%406%0%111%A+B+/L (4)$46.49108$5,020.92$953.93$11.59401%11.731neutralfairly valued (3)$200yes2.5
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Archer Daniels MidlandADM8.5%5.3%13.8%2.1%3.3%7.8%0.86137.1%on trendline35%6.8%6.7%19%28%288%63%no FCFAB+/M (3)$42.59117$4,983.03-$152.20$49.3786%1.216yesneutralundervalued (3)$24yes2
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HersheyHSY15.4%-1.7%13.7%6.6%2.5%8.3%0.05219.8%on trendline36%32.3%2.7%42%56%226%-7%44%AA/L (3)$111.2745$5,007.15$660.64$28.94384%17.231unfavorablefairly valued (3)$241.5yes
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TargetTGT10.7%1.1%11.8%9.9%3.2%8.3%1.05156.5%up 1SD27%16.0%7.7%30%49%201%25%54%AB+/M (3)$77.5165$5,038.15-$202.77$52.01149%3.816yesfavorableundervalued (3)$43yes2yes
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KrogerKR11.1%0.6%11.6%4.5%2.4%-2.9%0.89710.2%down 1SD40%11.0%5.7%32%52%300%18%36%BBBA-/L (4)$26.38190$5,012.20$390.92$28.9191%2.413yesneutralundervalued (4)$20yes2
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PepsiCoPEP13.3%-3.3%10.0%11.5%3.1%7.8%0.56149.0%up 1SD19%18.7%5.6%36%60%253%-9%80%A+A-/L (5)$117.4643$5,050.78$518.82$45.11260%11.825neutralfairly valued (3)$172yes2.5
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WalmartWMT10.6%-3.3%7.3%8.4%2.2%2.0%0.66458.1%up 1SD23%16.3%5.7%23%38%172%15%35%AAA-/L (4)$98.2151$5,008.71-$368.01$35.79274%3.923neutralfairly valued (3)$291yes3
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Valero EnergyVLO19.8%-16.5%3.3%12.9%4.3%29.7%1.261214.3%on trendline64%11.7%8.9%17%29%50%58%117%BBBB+/M (4)$84.6659$4,994.94$5,696.02$92.2592%1.613yesneutralundervalued (4)$372
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CaterpillarCAT18.5%-17.3%1.2%9.0%2.5%7.5%1.351410.9%on trendline40%17.2%7.7%32%49%320%7%54%AB+/M (3)$135.0837$4,997.96$1,110.54$75.04180%5.828favorableundervalued (4)$81yes3
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CumminsCMI20.6%-22.3%-1.7%5.4%2.8%12.8%1.271318.0%on trendline49%18.8%9.9%8%16%83%21%45%A+B+/M (4)$156.2432$4,999.68$6,034.75$117.45133%3.518yesneutralfairly valued (3)$26yes4yes
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KelloggK7.5%-13.3%-5.8%0.5%4.0%4.0%0.7155.1%down 2SD18%14.2%5.4%46%71%371%-35%80%BBBA-/L (3)$56.2989$5,009.81-$725.61$25.52221%7.519unfavorableundervalued (4)$20yes0
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JM SmuckerSJM15.3%-22.2%-6.9%7.6%2.9%7.9%0.72110.6%down 2SD27%8.8%5.6%30%37%288%-30%39%BBBA-/M (3)$108.4046$4,986.40$1,205.77$93.57116%1.719yesneutralundervalued (3)$13yes2
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Altria GroupMO18.4%-26.3%-7.9%11.7%5.6%10.8%0.251516.3%down 2SD30%39.7%3.9%21%29%185%-2%66%BBBA-/M (3)$53.5193$4,976.43$5,870.03$25.58209%7.215neutralundervalued (4)$106yes3
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Tyson FoodsTSN23.6%-32.4%-8.8%13.2%2.2%38.0%0.591313.9%on trendline49%13.6%5.1%27%35%234%-15%24%BBBA/H (3)$64.8877$4,995.76$4,542.37$65.2899%1.917yesfavorableundervalued (3)$262
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Exxon MobilXOM5.4%-16.5%-11.1%-0.5%4.0%4.8%1.07175.0%down 1SD29%7.4%8.2%6%9%96%56%77%AA+B+/L (3)$80.2662$4,976.12-$591.74$70.50112%1.814yesneutralundervalued (4)$343yes2
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IngredionINGR18.6%-33.2%-14.6%9.0%2.7%9.1%0.631512.7%down 2SD33%16.0%5.6%34%43%207%18%52%BBBA-/M (3)$93.4653$4,953.38$2,125.06$70.60132%2.616yesfavorableundervalued (4)$63
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International Business MachinesIBM6.3%-22.9%-16.6%-2.4%4.4%10.6%1.68155.8%down 1SD31%15.5%9.8%29%57%275%-18%49%AA-/M (4)$139.1936$5,010.84$60.01$63.49219%7.711unfavorableundervalued (4)$128yes2
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General MillsGIS11.1%-31.2%-20.1%2.9%3.8%4.8%0.942010.2%down 2SD25%11.2%6.6%41%58%480%-51%51%BBBA/M (4)$47.78105$5,016.90$1,233.74$25.83185%4.417yesunfavorableundervalued (4)$31yes2
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Ryder SystemR12.8%-42.5%-29.7%-1.5%3.4%9.7%1.98135.9%down 1SD36%5.6%8.3%44%60%330%71%54%BBB+A-/M (4)$61.6081$4,989.60-$373.56$79.8377%1.210yesneutralNA$4yes2yes
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Averagen = 2715.9%-6.5%9.3%9.7%2.8%8.9%0.871911.9%on trendline32%15.6%6.5%29%44%256%9%54%A-A-/L (3)$98.53$4,997.38$2,363.77$56.66199%5.62213/27neutralfairly valued$7721/272.537037037
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BENCHMARKS
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Berkshire HathawayBRK-B13.6%3.5%17.1%10.6%0.0%0.0%0.731299.7%up 1SD24%4.9%6.8%13%20%252%47%no dividendAAB+/L (3)$203.6125$5,090.25-$392.27$72.07283%1.423neutralundervalued (4)$5173
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SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETFDIA15.8%-3.6%12.2%12.1%2.1%9.2%0.97166.7%up 1SD27%$257.9019$4,900.10-$475.024.0yes$21
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SPDR S&P 500 ETFSPY15.8%-4.5%11.3%10.8%1.9%8.5%1176.7%up 1SD31%$279.7418$5,035.32-$600.663.3yes$264
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SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETFMDY16.0%-11.3%4.7%8.0%1.2%8.6%1.16168.3%on trendline27%$346.0714$4,844.98-$237.212.2yes$20
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VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETFMOO10.1%-5.7%4.4%5.1%1.5%-1.5%0.8917NANANA2.1yes$1
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Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF BND3.6%0.0%3.6%2.7%2.8%5.1%1.03NA3.8%down 2SD8%$80.2262$4,973.64-$1,244.39$216
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iShares MSCI All Country World Index ex U.S. ETFACWX8.6%-14.1%-5.5%2.5%2.4%-2.4%1NANANANA$4
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iShares S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index ETF
GSG-4.5%-14.3%-18.8%-13.5%0.0%0.0%1.19NA-5.2%on trendline33%$15.86315$4,995.90-$3,866.45$1
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Averagen = 89.9%-6.3%3.6%4.0%1.7%3.9%1.03175.0%on trendline25%$195.96$4,949.99-$1,284.752.9$75
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Consumer Price Indexcpi1.8%0.3%2.1%1.6%
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Updated 4/17/2019
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