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Sensitivity Experiment--Change the pink numbers until the blue number match.
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Givens:
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Population of Santa Clara County:1927710
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Reported Covid Cases1094
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Study Respondents4114
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Assumed Deaths100
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Actual Covid Positive from Study50
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Scenario Variables:
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Percent non-Covid but symptomatic in Jan or Feb:0.05
* This is the percent of the total population of Santa Clara who did *not* have Covid, but had some other symptoms they might reasonably have thought could have been Covid
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Actual CFR0.01
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% Asymptomatic Covid0.25
* Note: This is the percentage of undetected Covid cases that are completely asympomatic, from start to finish.
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Symptomatic Likelihood multiplier2.9
* This is how much more likely it is that someone who had Covid-like symptoms would be to respond to the Facebook ad
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Scenario Results:
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Total non-Covid symptomatic in Jan or Feb96385.5
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Undiagnosed Covid Cases8906
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% Symptomatic with Covid0.06480861592
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% Non-symptomatic with Covid0.003647360148
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Percent county residents who saw ad0.01
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County residents who saw ad19277.1
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Symptomatic Covid who saw ad1030.65
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Non-symptomatic who saw ad18246.45
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Non-Symptomatic response rate0.193733699
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Symptomatic response rate0.5618277272
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Symptomatic responders579.0477471
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# Symptomatic responders with Covid37.52728304
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# Non-Symptomatic responders with Covid12.89324397
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# Total Responders With Covid50.42052701
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