Decision tree exercise Syphilis screen SM.xlsx

	B	C	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	R	T	U	V	W	X
1	Inputs	Values	POPULATION of PREGNANT WOMEN
2	Pregnant women served per year at clinics OR Full pop proportion	14,523	14,523
3	Opt in to screening	0.60
4	Prevalence of infection	0.15							Enter values					Calculate expected values
5	Prevalence of infection among women who opt in to screening	0.19						STEP 2.						STEP 3.
6	Prevalence of infection among women who opt out of screening	0.09
7	Proportion of women who present early (first half of pregnancy)	0.55									0.379			Expected	Population per group	Perinatal death per group/path of the tree
8	Perinatal death among untreated infected women	0.379							Infected			Perinatal death	1	0.056850	826	826
9	Perinatal death among uninfected women	0.076							0.15
10	Perinatal death among treated infected women, early pregnancy	0.10
11	Perinatal death among treated infected women, late pregnancy	0.32		Status Quo							0.621	Survival	0	0.093150	1,353	0
12			Status Quo (Policy Option 1)	No intervention
13	Costs				14523				Uninfected		0.076	Perinatal death	1	0.064600	938	938
14	Fixed costs per year	$60,000							0.85
15	Cost to screen, per person	$ 3.65
16	Cost to treat, per person	$ 2.00									0.924	Survival	0	0.785400	11,406	0
17	Per-person fixed cost	$ 4.13														1,764
18			Complete decision node								VALUE	Perinatal death	OUTCOME VALUE
19			STEP 1.							Early
20							Infected			VALUE	VALUE	Survival	OUTCOME VALUE
21	Total variable cost to screen and treat	#REF!	VALUE				VALUE
22			Pregnant women								VALUE	Perinatal death	OUTCOME VALUE
23					Opt in					VALUE
24	Outcomes					VALUE				Late	VALUE	Survival	OUTCOME VALUE
25
26	Total number of women screened										VALUE	Perinatal death	OUTCOME VALUE
27	Total number of women treated
28
29	Economic / Health Impact			Intervention			Uninfected
30	Death with no intervention		Intervention (Policy Option 2)	Screening			VALUE				VALUE	Survival	OUTCOME VALUE
31	Death with intervention		Screening and treat
32	Lives saved
33									Infected
34	Total annual program cost (variable + fixed costs)								VALUE		VALUE	Perinatal death	OUTCOME VALUE
35	Crude cost per pregnant woman
36						VALUE					VALUE	Survival	OUTCOME VALUE
37	CEA (cost/(savings) to avert 1 perinatal death)				Opt out
38
39	ICER (Diff cost/Diff cases)								VALUE		VALUE	Perinatal death	OUTCOME VALUE
40		STEP 4.							Uninfected
41		Complete calculations										Survival	OUTCOME VALUE
42											VALUE
43														Total
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