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State-by-State Data on Impacts of Republican Megabill
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These data correspond to slides available at Fed Fallout State-Specific Template Slide Deck.pptx
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Last Updated: September 2, 2025
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SectionSlide number(s)Data pointSourceTime period for data pointLink to sourceNotes
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HealthcareNumber of people with health coverage through MedicaidCBPPApril 2025Medicaid/CHIP Enrollment by Age by 119th Congressional District
These estimates are updated regularly, check the link for revised numbers
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Healthcare4, 6Estimated increase in uninsured population due to 2025 Reconciliation Law and expiration of enhanced Premium Tax Credits (PTCs)CBPP2034CBPP Program Participation Data Dashboard
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Healthcare6Number of ACA Marketplace Enrollees with enhanced Premium Tax Credits (PTCs) whose costs will increase when PTCs expireCMSJan-May 2025First 5 Months 2025 Effectuated Enrollment Tables
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HealthcareProjected Number of Small Business Owners and Self-Employed Workers With Marketplace Coverage, 2025CBPP2025
Research Note: 5 Million Small Business Owners and Self-Employed Workers Likely Enrolled in ACA Marketplace in 2025
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SNAP4, 8, 11Number of people in SNAP-participating householdsCBPPFY 2024
A Closer Look at Who Benefits from SNAP: State-by-State Fact Sheets
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SNAP9New state costs under 5% SNAP cost-sharing requirement (in millions)CBPPFY 2028
Research Note: Senate Republican Leaders’ Proposal Risks Deep Cuts to Food Assistance, Some States Ending SNAP Entirely
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SNAP9New state costs under 10% SNAP cost-sharing requirement (in millions)CBPPFY 2028
Research Note: Senate Republican Leaders’ Proposal Risks Deep Cuts to Food Assistance, Some States Ending SNAP Entirely
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SNAP9, 10New state costs under 15% SNAP cost-sharing requirement (in millions)CBPPFY 2028
Research Note: Senate Republican Leaders’ Proposal Risks Deep Cuts to Food Assistance, Some States Ending SNAP Entirely
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SNAP9SNAP Payment Error RateUSDAFY 2024Fiscal Year 2024 SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates
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SNAP9Increase in state share of SNAP administrative costs (in millions)Federal Funds Information for StatesFY 2027https://ffis.org/budget-brief/one-big-beautiful-bill-act/
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SNAP8Number of SNAP participants in households facing benefit reductions under new work requirementsCBPPBased on FY 2022 data
Senate Agriculture Committee’s Revised Work Requirement Would Risk Taking Away Food Assistance From More Than 5 Million People: State Estimates
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SNAPSNAP participants admitted as refugees, granted asylum, or granted withholding of removalCBPPFY 2023
House Republican Reconciliation Bill Takes Away Health Coverage, Food Assistance, Tax Credits From Millions of Immigrants and Their Families
These estimates include Cuban and Haitian entrants, who will continue to qualify for SNAP
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Climate/Energy4, 12Estimated average increase in annual household energy costs in 2035 ($2024) due to cut to clean energy tax creditEnergy Innovation Policy & Technology LLC2035
Assessing Impacts of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" on US Energy Costs, Jobs, Health, and Emissions
Not available for AK, HI, or DC
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Climate/Energy12Potential job losses from canceled clean energy projects (number of jobs in clean energy projects announced since the IRA but not yet completed)Energy Innovation Policy & Technology LLC2035
Assessing Impacts of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" on US Energy Costs, Jobs, Health, and Emissions
Not available for AK, HI, or DC
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TaxMinimum income of state's richest 1%Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy2026
Analysis of Tax Provisions in the Senate Reconciliation Bill: National and State Level Estimates
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Tax10Average income of state's richest 1% (millions)Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy2026
Analysis of Tax Provisions in the Senate Reconciliation Bill: National and State Level Estimates
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Tax4, 10Average tax cut for state's richest 1% Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy2026
Analysis of Tax Provisions in the Senate Reconciliation Bill: National and State Level Estimates
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Tax10Combined value of tax cut for top 1% (shown in millions and billions)Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy2026
Analysis of Tax Provisions in the Senate Reconciliation Bill: National and State Level Estimates
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Tax10Share of the state's total tax cut that goes to the top 1%Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy2026
Analysis of Tax Provisions in the Senate Reconciliation Bill: National and State Level Estimates
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TaxMaximum income of state's poorest 20%Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy2026
Analysis of Tax Provisions in the Senate Reconciliation Bill: National and State Level Estimates
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Tax4Average tax cut for state's poorest 20%Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy2026
Analysis of Tax Provisions in the Senate Reconciliation Bill: National and State Level Estimates
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Tax4, 11Estimated number of children in working families left out of full $2,200 Child Tax Credit under MegabillCBPP2025
Policymakers Should Expand the Child Tax Credit for the 17 Million Children Currently Left Out of the Full Credit
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Tax4, 11Citizen children made ineligible for the Child Tax Credit
Migration Policy Institute, 2021
Nearly 3 Million U.S. Citizens and Legal Immigrants Initially Excluded under the CARES Act Are Covered under the December 2020 COVID-19 Stimulus
Estimates not available for all states
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