SE_DCF_Model.xlsx

	B	C	D	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O
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2	Sea Limited (NYSE: SE)			DCF Model — One Page
3				Built April 2026 \| FY ends December
4	^^INPUT YOUR OWN ASSUMPTIONS				=	Input Cells
5					=	Actuals
6					=	Estimates
7
8	Modeling Inputs — 5 Years	FY2026–2027	FY2028–2030		-2	-1	0	1	2	3	4	5	Implied CAGRs
9	Shopee Revenue Growth Rate	25.00%	15.00%		Dec 2023	Dec 2024	Dec 2025	Dec 2026	Dec 2027	Dec 2028	Dec 2029	Dec 2030
10	Monee Revenue Growth Rate	30.00%	18.00%	Shopee Revenue ($B)	$9.00	$12.40	$16.60	$20.75	$25.94	$32.42	$37.29	$42.88	20.90%
11	Garena Revenue Growth Rate	5.00%	2.00%	Monee Revenue ($B)	$2.10	$2.40	$3.80	$4.94	$6.42	$8.35	$9.85	$11.62	25.06%
12	Group Adj EBITDA Margin	16.00%	20.00%	Garena Revenue ($B)	$1.90	$1.90	$2.40	$2.52	$2.65	$2.78	$2.83	$2.89	3.79%
13	Cash Tax Rate (% of EBIT)	18.00%		Total Revenue ($B)	$13.00	$16.70	$22.80	$28.21	$35.01	$43.55	$49.97	$57.39	20.28%
14	Normalized FCF Margin (% of revenue)	11.00%	16.00%	Adj EBITDA ($B)	$1.65	$1.96	$3.44	$4.51	$5.60	$6.97	$9.99	$11.48	27.25%
15	Dividend Payout (% of Norm. FCF)	0.00%		Adj Net Income ($B)	$0.16	$0.44	$1.61	$3.70	$4.59	$5.71	$8.20	$9.41	42.36%
16	Share Inputs			Adj EPS ($/share)	$0.28	$0.81	$2.69	$6.14	$7.58	$9.38	$13.39	$15.30	41.58%
17
18	Current Stock Price	$85.44		Normalized FCF ($B)	$0.50	$2.50	$4.50	$3.10	$3.85	$4.79	$8.00	$9.18	15.33%
19	Annual Share Count Growth / Decline	0.50%		Shares Outstanding (millions)	572.0	589.0	600.0	603.0	606.0	609.0	612.1	615.2
20				Normalized FCF Margin %	3.85%	14.97%	19.74%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	16.00%	16.00%
21				Normalized FCF Per Share ($/share)	$0.87	$4.24	$7.50	$5.15	$6.35	$7.87	$13.06	$14.93	14.76%
22				Dividends Per Share ($/share)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
23
24	Summary Stats			Discount Rate	10.00%		$50.00	43.63%
25	Implied Total Revenue CAGR (5yr)	20.28%		Margin of Safety Discount	20.00%		$70.00	34.28%
26	Implied Adj EPS CAGR (5yr)	41.58%		Fair Value — Not Incl. Margin of Safety	$189.78		$85.44	29.04%
27	Implied Norm. FCF/Share CAGR (5yr)	14.76%		Implied IRR from Current Price (w/ Dividends)	22.68%		$110.00	22.68%
28	Implied Weighted Avg Exit Multiple	20x		Implied IRR from Intrinsic Value Target	22.68%		$130.00	18.65%
29				Intrinsic Value Target (w/ Margin of Safety)	$151.83		$160.00	13.82%
30							$200.00	8.85%
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36				Range of Exit Multiples Analysis (P / Norm. FCF Per Share, FY2030E)
37				FY2030 P/FCF Multiple	Weighting	Present Value / Share		IRR Inputs —	FY2026	FY2027	FY2028	FY2029	FY2030 + Exit
38				8x	2.50%	$74.15
39				10x	5.00%	$92.69		-$50.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$305.65
40				13x	7.50%	$120.50		-$70.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$305.65
41				16x	10.00%	$148.30		-$85.44	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$305.65
42				18x	10.00%	$166.84		-$110.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$305.65
43				20x	25.00%	$185.38		-$130.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$305.65
44				22x	15.00%	$203.92		-$160.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$305.65
45				25x	10.00%	$231.73		-$200.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$305.65
46				28x	7.50%	$259.53
47				32x	5.00%	$296.61		← Initial investment (negative = cash outlay at entry price)
48				36x	2.50%	$333.69			← Annual dividends per share (years 1-4) + terminal exit value (year 5)
49				Weighting Balance Check:	100.00%
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