Household_Financial_Stress_Test.xlsx

	A	B	C	D	E
1	Household Financial Stress Test · Oil as the Catalyst, Food as the Finale
2	Data as of late March 2026 \| Blue Text = Modifiable Inputs \| Green Fill = Auto-calculated \| Yellow Fill = User Input Required
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4	① Mortgage Structure & Rate Exposure
5	Item	Your Profile (Select/Input)	Fixed Rate (%)	Adjustable Rate (%)	Remarks
6	Mortgage Type	Fully ARM / Hybrid ARM / No Mortgage			Input your mortgage type in Column B
7	Fixed-Period Rate (%)		2.20%		Top 5 banks avg. 2.1–2.3% (Feb 2026)
8	Adjustable-Period Rate (%)			2.50%	Private banks avg. 2.45–2.95% (Feb 2026)
9	Fixed vs. ARM Spread (%)		0.00		Annual premium paid for fixed rate security
10	Outstanding Balance (TWD 10k)	20000			Enter your outstanding mortgage balance
11	Annual Premium Cost (TWD)		-6,000.00		Spread × Outstanding Balance
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13	② Emergency Liquidity Buffer
14	Item	Amount (TWD)	Months	Status	Remarks
15	Monthly Baseline Living Expenses	50,000			Enter your household's fixed monthly overhead
16	Current Liquidity Reserves	250,000	5	✅ Target Met
17	Target Reserves (3 Months)	150,000			Auto-calculated
18	Liquidity Shortfall	0
19
20	③ Fixed Expenditure Stress Projections (Two-Wave Impact)
21	Expenditure Category	Current Monthly Exp. (TWD)	Est. Monthly Increase (TWD)	Impact Wave	Description
22	Automotive Fuel	0	0	Wave 1 (Current)	Brent at $112/bbl; est. monthly increase of TWD 500–1,500
23	Utilities (Water, Electricity, Gas)	500		Wave 1 (Starting Q2)	Upward adjustments expected post-policy buffer expiration
24	Aviation Fuel Surcharges	0		Wave 1	Enter expected departure month
25	Groceries & Daily Necessities	1,500		Wave 2 (6–9 Months Lag)	Fertilizer cost pass-through; CPI est. to rise by 1.5–2.0 pp
26	Other Subscriptions / Fixed Costs	0		Controllable	Recommend itemized review
27	Total Wave 1 (Monthly Increase)	500	0		Auto-sum
28	Total Wave 2 (Monthly Increase)	1,500			Additional impact materializing in 6 months
29	Combined Stress Impact (Monthly)	2,000	0		Wave 1 + Wave 2
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31	④ Real Rate of Return Calculation (For Retirees / Near-Retirees)
32	Item	Value	Unit	Calculated Result	Description
33	Nominal Annualized Yield	4.00%	%		Enter your combined dividend & interest annual yield
34	Interest Income Tax Rate	10.00%	%		Taiwan interest income tax 10% (on amounts exceeding TWD 270k exemption)
35	After-Tax Yield		%	3.60%	Auto-calculated
36	Taiwan CPI (Feb)	1.75%	%		DGBAS released Mar 2026
37	Real Rate of Return		%	1.85%	After-Tax Yield − CPI
38	Annual Real Return (TWD)		TWD		Enter total investable assets; below cell auto-calculates
39	Investable Assets (TWD 10k)	300	TWD 10k
40	Annual Real Return Amount		TWD	5550000.00%	Real Rate of Return × Assets
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42	⑤ Trigger Point Configuration (For Periodic Review)
43	Trigger Metric	User-Defined Threshold	Current Value (Manual Update)	Trigger Status	Post-Trigger Action
44	Brent Crude ($/bbl)	80	112.57	✅ Triggered	Re-evaluate fixed-rate mortgage options
45	Taiwan Food CPI (MoM)	0	0.005	✅ Triggered	Adjust grocery expenditure assumptions from alert to baseline
46	Fed Rate Cut Magnitude (bps)	25	21	⏳ Not Triggered	Moderately extend USD deposit durations
47	Custom Trigger Condition				User defined
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49	⑥ Defensive Strategy Opportunity Cost Analysis
50	Strategic Decision	Annual Opportunity Cost (TWD)	Contrarian Scenario Risk	Assessment	Description
51	Switch to Fixed-Rate Mortgage (Spread Cost)	0	Yes (if Central Bank halts rate hikes)	Zero Cost	Spread % × Outstanding Balance
52	Liquidity in Demand Deposits (Foregone Interest)	3,000	None	Low	Est. foregone interest TWD 2,000–5,000 annually
53	Staggered FX Conversion (Exchange Rate Risk)		Yes (if USD weakens)	Low	If underlying demand exists, market timing is moot
54	Maintain Existing Positions (Hold)	0	None	✅ Zero Opp. Cost	Inaction inherently preserves capital
55	Total Opportunity Cost	3,000			The sole material cost stems from the mortgage premium
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57	⑦ Comprehensive Financial Stress Diagnostic Report (Automated Conclusion)
58	Diagnostic Dimension	Current Status	Risk Profile	Core Recommendation
59	1. Cash Flow Buffering Capacity	5 Months	⚠️ Alert	Current cash flow reserves are adequate but warrant monitoring
60	2. Expenditure Inflationary Stress	0 TWD/Month	✅ Low	Expenditure increments remain within manageable thresholds
61	3. Mortgage Interest Rate Risk	No Spread Cost	✅ Low	Oil price triggers met; advise evaluating fixed-rate options
62	4. Real Investment Yield	1.85 %	⚠️ Marginal	Yield is marginally sufficient to offset inflationary erosion
63	Final Executive Summary:	Overall financial constitution is robust, demonstrating resilience against moderate inflation. Recommend continuous monitoring of oil prices and Federal Reserve policy trajectories.
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