Suvita have a funding gap of approx. 200k (to the end of the year: but this is JUST to maintain current operations, not expand), but may get additional funding

from email with Fiona Conlon to Rosie, Jun 23rd 2022

from email with Fiona Conlon to Rosie, Jun 23rd 2022

Could be underestimate: Fiona mentioned that they enrolled 32,225 women in 2021, are on track to hit 60,000+ in 2022

Note that the budget also includes sending SMS to the children who were reached in 2021, as well as the children who were newly reached in 2022. For the pregnant women, they are only contacted (for their ANC appointments specifically) for the year they are pregnant.

You need to update the SMS/ ambassador sheet manually if this value is changed (aka where it says 0.002 near the top)

You need to update the SMS/ ambassador sheet manually if this value is changed (aka where it says 0.002 near the top)

https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD007458.pub3/full

10.8 without discount

https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/7/11/e017122

I discounted to get the approximate decrease in attending all 4 ANC appointments. I discounted by 66% (rather than higher, e.g. 75%) because the Maharashtra state data shows that most women tend to attend either 0 or all 4 ANC appointments, and because this intervention gives text reminders before every ANC appointment.

https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/7/11/e017123

I discounted to get the approximate decrease in attending all 4 ANC appointments. I discounted by 66% (rather than higher, e.g. 75%) because the Maharashtra state data shows that most women tend to attend either 0 or all 4 ANC appointments, and because this intervention gives text reminders before every ANC appointment.

the ANC reminders are in Maharashtra only

the ANC reminders are in Maharashtra only

the ANC reminders are in Maharashtra only

The last vaccines on the schedule are in the child's fifth year. So 1/5th of the children from the previous year 'graduate' out of the program

The last vaccines on the schedule are in the child's fifth year. So 1/5th of the children from the previous year 'graduate' out of the program

In reality, ambassador is more expensive than SMS. Here I average across these two interventions, just to get the average no. of children reached for funding gap. Here, I am estimating the no. of additional children reached by SMS as a result of filling the funding gap. So it's the proportion of the total 2022 budget that the funding gap represents, multiplied by the total no. of children reached by SMS in 2022

When this is updated: remember to change this value in the 'SMS/Ambassador' sheet, it doesn't populate automatically. CTRL F 'cohort' is easy way to find correct cells. Atm, approx 60% of Suvita's SMS go to bihar. I have separated out by state, since the two states have different baseline levels of vaccination (so effect of SMS is different). This number automatically goes into the effect sheet.

When this is updated: remember to change this value in the 'SMS/Ambassador' sheet, it doesn't populate automatically. CTRL F 'cohort' is easy way to find correct cells. Atm approx 40% of suvita's SMS go to Maharashtra. I have separated out by state, since the two states have different baseline levels of vaccination (so effect of SMS is different). This number automatically goes into the effect sheet.

Note that the funding gap is not 'all or nothing': with less funding, Suvita will simply scale up on a smaller scale. I therefore worked out the additional no. of children that would be reached with $100000. Since I have the 2022 budget, this includes the cost of contining to message the children that are already enrolled (from 2021) and to add new children (aka who need to be enrolled). I have separated out by state, since the two states have different baseline levels of vaccination (so effect of SMS is different). This number goes into the effect sheet.

When this is updated: remember to change this value in the 'SMS/Ambassador' sheet, it doesn't populate automatically. CTRL F 'cohort' is easy way to find correct cells. atm all the ambassador program is in Bihar. I have separated out by state, since the two states have different baseline levels of vaccination (so effect of SMS is different). This number goes into the effect sheet.

When this is updated: remember to change this value in the 'SMS/Ambassador' sheet, it doesn't populate automatically. CTRL F 'cohort' is easy way to find correct cells. atm all the ambassador program in bihar, but i've kept this in for easy updating in subsequent years.

when this is updated, remember to add (from the SMS/ ambassadaor: under 5 lives saved sheet) the lives saved in maharahstra from program there (since atm suvita don't use ambassaor in maharashtra, but i expect they will expand to do this soon)

This section doesn't go into cost effectiveness. I know it's ugly to keep here, but i think it's reassuring to show that the somewhat confusing SMS/ Ambassador model (inherited from Suvita/ Givewell) isn't overestimating

Averaged across Bihar and Maharashtra, from NFHS-5

McGovern and Canning 2015

Uses mortality reduction rate from previous evaluation, inc their discount of 50%

Similar to the 'no. of children reached by SMS as result of filling funding gap', but for antenatal appointments

This maybe underestimates, since the baseline rate of neonatal mortality here is the overall rate (i.e. inc BOTH those who get ANC appointments and those who don't)

This is using the figure that I found (from review) that SMS reminders increases appointment attendance by approx. 14%. I use the benefit from attending ALL 4 ANC appointments, since text reminders are sent prior to each appointment. Note that neonate = new born. The infant mortality data (afaik) excludes neonates, so not a double count