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QuestionProbability from
yes/no completion		Probability from
verbal completion
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At the end of 2023, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?95.41%58.25%
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At the end of 2023, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol? If there is active fighting over the city, whoever controls the main train station (or, if destroyed, the piece of ground where the train station used to be) is counted as controlling the city.0.00%26.61%
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At the end of 2023, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk? If there is active fighting over the city, whoever controls the main train station (or, if destroyed, the piece of ground where the train station used to be) is counted as controlling the city.0.00%73.37%
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At the end of 2023, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia? If there is active fighting over the city, whoever controls the main train station (or, if destroyed, the piece of ground where the train station used to be) is counted as controlling the city.0.00%81.49%
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In 2023, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war? A formal cease-fire will count, as long as it remains substantially in effect at the end of 2023. Minor violations won’t count against this as long as both sides and the international media agree it is still substantially in effect. An informal cease-fire will count if it involves at least one month without significant military action and the international media dubs it a de facto cease fire. A cease-fire which is signed but then substantially broken before 1/1/24 will not count.0.05%14.56%
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In 2023, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it? As long as any vehicle (except, like, airplanes) can pass over the bridge, it does not count as destroyed. If the bridge is destroyed but successfully repaired before 1/1/24 so that vehicles can cross it again, it does not count as destroyed.0.00%1.72%
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In 2023, will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area? We will make this a judgment call but generally resolve positive if at least 25 civilians have to evacuate.0.01%2.43%
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In 2023, will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)? Detonation means nuclear explosion. If a nuclear weapon is launched/dropped/etc but the nuclear weapon does not detonate (due to malfunction, interception, etc), that would not count as detonation. If a conventional explosion occurs but no nuclear explosion (for example, a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion), that doesn’t count.0.00%1.65%
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In 2023, will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?0.00%2.45%
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In 2023, will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan? Very loosely, an invasion of a scale such that China most likely intended for it to establish direct control over at least half of the island of Taiwan, whether or not they actually accomplish this.0.01%1.83%
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In 2023, will any new country join NATO? Sweden and Finland completing the accession process would count as new countries.2.79%7.45%
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In 2023, will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?0.00%7.78%
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In 2023, will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine? We will judge casualties for the Ukraine war based on the sum of the UN estimate of civilian deaths + injuries, plus each side's report of the other side's deaths + injuries. See eg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#Field_casualties_and_injuries . We reserve the right to change this if one side starts giving implausible numbers. When a range is offered, the midpoint of the range will be taken. If there is no easy way to determine which Ukraine casualties happened in 2022 vs. 2023, the current total of 225,216 will be subtracted from the best available end-of-2023 number. The casualty numbers for other wars will be calculated in a method as similar to this as possible; if an identical methodology cannot be used, we reserve the right to use credible third-party (eg US government, well-known neutral media outlet) estimates.0.05%9.97%
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In 2023, will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China? Based on https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases0.00%24.42%
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In 2023, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? We will use Polymarket to resolve these questions looking at 00:01 Jan 1st 2024. If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the question has the most traders. If neither Polymarket nor Manifold exist and are credible, we will use our judgment to select an alternative source.0.02%48.65%
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In 2023, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? We will use Polymarket to resolve these questions looking at 00:01 Jan 1st 2024. If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the question has the most traders. If neither Polymarket nor Manifold exist and are credible, we will use our judgment to select an alternative source.0.01%33.37%
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In 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? We will use Polymarket to resolve these questions looking at 00:01 Jan 1st 2024. If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the question has the most traders. If neither Polymarket nor Manifold exist and are credible, we will use our judgment to select an alternative source.0.00%44.91%
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In 2023, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? We will use Polymarket to resolve these questions looking at 00:01 Jan 1st 2024. If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the question has the most traders. If neither Polymarket nor Manifold exist and are credible, we will use our judgment to select an alternative source.0.01%28.87%
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In 2023, will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?0.00%34.93%
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In 2023, will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court? Most likely justices dying or resigning, but court packing would also qualify.93.10%6.88%
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In 2023, will Donald Trump make at least one tweet? Resolves positively if the @realdonaldtrump account tweets with Trump's implied approval, even if the tweet was written by an intern. Does not resolve positively if the account is hacked or tweets apparently without Trump's approval.94.20%59.97%
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At the end of 2023, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus dispproval) rating? See https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ . Currently he is at 51% disapprove, 43% approve, so his approval - disapproval is -8 and this question would resolve as 'no'.0.00%14.49%
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In 2023, will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?0.00%5.27%
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In 2023, will a major US political figure be killed or wounded in an assassination attempt? Qualifying political figures are the President, VP, any Cabinet secretary, any member of Congress, any Supreme Court Justice, or any state governor. Any injury, no matter how slight, counts as a “wound” for this question, as long as the assassin was in our judgment intending to kill their victim.0.00%3.00%
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By the end of 2023, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?0.00%8.80%
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In 2023, will the UK hold a general election?99.77%16.57%
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By the end of 2023, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter? If there is no publicly available data about ownership stakes, this will resolve positively unless there is some strong reason to think he is no longer majority owner.97.16%72.67%
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In 2023, will Twitter's net income be higher than in 2022? To be resolved using https://www.statista.com/statistics/299119/twitter-net-income-quarterly/ . If not all four quarters of data are available in January 2024 when we resolve this question, we will compare however many quarters of 2023 are available to their 2022 equivalents.15.65%45.73%
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In 2023, will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher than in 2022? To resolve using https://www.statista.com/statistics/970920/monetizable-daily-active-twitter-users-worldwide/20.90%24.48%
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In 2023, will US CPI inflation average above 4%?0.00%3.76%
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In 2023, will the S&P 500 index end up higher than it began?4.10%53.95%
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In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?7.15%34.00%
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In 2023, will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks end up higher than it began?0.10%46.35%
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In 2023, will Bitcoin end up higher than it began?1.37%54.40%
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By the end of 2023, will Bitcoin be above $30,000?0.00%29.90%
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In 2023, will Tether de-peg? We will count Tether as “de-pegged” if it spends at least one full day below 98 cents at any point during 2023.0.01%1.39%
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In November 2023, will the US unemployment rate (now 3.7%) be above 4%?0.00%11.65%
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In 2023, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment? Qualifying companies are Meta, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Tesla, and Twitter. The company must announce that one of its major services (not an experimental or gimmick service invented for this purpose) will take payment in a crypto token which can be easily exchanged from most major cryptocurrencies on at least one large exchange without an intermediate fiat step. If a company has announced this, they do not need to have implemented the payment system by the resolution date for the question to resolve positive, as long as they are still widely expected to do so. This question is about the state of the world on 1/1/24; if a company announces this but then backtracks before then, it will not qualify.0.01%4.77%
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In 2023, will OpenAI release GPT-4? This resolves as positive if Open-AI publishes a paper or webpage implicitly declaring GPT-4 “released” or “complete”, showcasing some examples of what it can do, and offering some form of use in some reasonable timescale to some outside parties (researchers, corporate partners, people who want to play around with it, etc). A product is “GPT-4” if it is either named GPT-4, or is a clear successor to GPT-3 to a degree similar to how GPT-3 was a successor to GPT-2 (and not branded as a newer version of GPT-3, eg ChatGPT3).7.75%24.77%
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In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?82.59%30.59%
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In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction? See https://www.surgehq.ai/blog/dall-e-vs-imagen-and-evaluating-astral-codex-tens-3000-ai-bet . Scott and Edwin will try to get the top image models of late 2023 to try the specific questions in the bet. If we can’t access the models, then Edwin can use public demos of the image models and his own best guess to resolve this as either likely true, likely false, or unclear. Edwin believes current AI models have not won the bet, so if there is no clear progress he should resolve the bet false. If Edwin is unwilling to judge this, Gary Marcus will be used as the substitute; if neither of these two people will do it, the question resolves as unclear.0.22%13.06%
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In 2023, will COVID kill at least 50% as many people as it did in 2022? According to https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths0.01%24.20%
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In 2023, will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines? This question will resolve positive if in the opinion of the judges the scientific consensus is that getting all currently-recommended vaccines, including the two original vaccines and the Omicron booster, decreases risk of the new variant by less than 50%.0.00%5.13%
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In 2023, will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset? An AR (Augmented Reality) headset is defined as a wearable where the user can see through it (unlike a VR headset) to the outside world, and it adds new visual information on top of what the viewer sees. It’s not sufficient to have glasses that have functionality like taking pictures, or that modify the visual field with filters. The new visual information must be in some way based on what the user is doing or seeing. Microsoft Hololens would qualify, but is already extant. Must be released by one of Meta, Google, Apple, Amazon specifically, and must be available for purchase by the public in some capacity.0.02%10.67%
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In 2023, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour? Scott Alexander will spend some time January 1 2024 checking whether he can get via his house in Oakland to the Presidio in San Francisco via self-driving car at rush hour. He will probably not actually take the trip, but he will resolve this as positive if it looks like he could take the trip with less than one hour of figuring out how and less than $500 cost. Currently (late 2022) he estimates he cannot do this, because the self-driving taxis in SF only operate at night and won’t cross the bridge into Oakland.0.00%16.47%
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In 2023, will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?0.64%11.33%
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In 2023, will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source? A deepfake is defined as any sophisticated AI-generated image, video, or audio meant to mislead. For this question to resolve positively, it must actually harm someone, not just exist. Valid forms of harm include but are not limited to costing someone money, or making some specific name-able person genuinely upset (not just “for all we know, people could have seen this and been upset by it”). The harm must come directly from the victim believing the deepfake, so somebody seeing the deepfake and being upset because the existence of deepfakes makes them sad does not count.0.02%2.69%
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In 2023, will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency? For reference, the last three were monkeypox, COVID, and Ebola.0.00%7.51%
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In 2023, will AI win a programming competition? This will resolve positively if a major news source reports that an AI entered a programming competition with at least two other good participants, and won the top prize. A good participant will be defined as someone who could be expected to perform above the level of an average big tech company employee; if there are at least twenty-five participants not specifically selected against being skilled, this will be considered true by default. The competition could be sponsored by the AI company as long as it meets the other criteria and is generally considered fair.0.01%21.37%
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In 2023, will someone release 'DALL-E, but for videos'? This question resolves positively if some person or group credibly announces the existence of an AI that can generate appropriate videos at least 10 seconds long from arbitrary prompts (similar to the way DALL-E generates images from arbitrary prompts) and provides examples.1.90%10.03%
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