Group Cancer Probabilities
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National Cancer Institute (SEER)Probability of Cancer Diagnosis in a Group
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http://seer.cancer.gov/csr/1975_2009_pops09/browse_csr.php?section=2&page=sect_02_table.12.htmlInput DataAgeHispanic 10 yr rate
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Average age60402.03%2.88%
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Group size18504.91%5.22%
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Diagnosed66010.13%4.50%
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7014.63%-
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DiagnosedProbability1 in
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P (=>n) = 1- binomdist (n-1, N, rate, 1)At least 6 cases0.68%14610yr cancer rate10.13%
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P (n) =binomdist (n-1, N, rate, 0)Exactly 6 cases0.56%180Expected cancers1.82
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Probability of Cancer Diagnosis
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DiagnosedAverage age of group:60
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With CancerTotal Number (N) in Group
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101214161820
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41.34%2.68%4.60%7.11%10.19%13.77%
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50.17%0.46%0.97%1.79%2.96%4.53%
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60.02%0.06%0.16%0.35%0.68%1.20%
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70.00%0.01%0.02%0.05%0.13%0.26%
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80.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.02%0.05%
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Probability: 1 in
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475372214107
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5577218103563422
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66,3301,72263428414684
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7100,52718,3195,0811,831790389
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82,420,017265,53252,80014,8545,2652,203
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Average Age in Group of18
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40506070
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40.04%1.02%10.19%26.42%
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50.00%0.14%2.96%11.11%
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60.00%0.02%0.68%3.76%
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70.00%0.00%0.13%1.03%
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80.00%0.00%0.02%0.23%
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Average Age:60Group of18
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