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AJF Combined CEA — Headline Dashboard
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WHAT IS AJF?
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The Africa Jobs Fund (AJF) is a philanthropic vehicle that invests catalytic capital into African businesses creating high-impact employment for low-income workers. AJF deploys capital across two streams:
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1) Labour Mobility — funding organisations that place African workers in jobs abroad (Gulf, Europe, etc.) at far higher wages than local alternatives.
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2) Export Manufacturing — funding African export factories (electronics assembly, apparel, wood furniture, etc.) that pay above-informal wages.
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For each company, AJF makes two stage-gated investments: a small pilot placement (recoverable on pilot success) plus pilot ops, then a larger scale-up placement (recoverable on scale success) plus scale ops. Ops costs are unrecoverable.
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CEA Summary Doc - Background & Comments
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HOW THIS CEA WORKS
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Our core metric is the DCY (doubled consumption year): one DCY = doubling one person's income for one year. We also track $ of income gained per $1 of programme spend — a simpler dollar-for-dollar view.
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For each company we estimate how many workers move into higher-paying jobs, how big the pay rise is, and how long it lasts. We also count spillover effects — on workers' families (Labour Mobility) and on local supply chains and labour markets (Export Manufacturing). Summed across the portfolio, this gives total DCYs.
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Programme cost = gross investment minus placement fees recovered on successful stages. We credit AJF with 30% of the impact (the rest accrues to founders, investors, and the broader ecosystem). DALYs averted = DCYs ÷ 2.5 (GiveWell convention).
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HEADLINE COST-EFFECTIVENESS
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Labour MobilityExport MfgCombined
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Cost per DCY$3.01$8.29$4.05
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Africa Jobs Fund benchmark ($/DCY)$10
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Cost per DALY$7.54$20.73$10.12
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GiveWell multiple (vs. $100/DALY)13.3×4.8×9.9×
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GiveWell benchmark ($/DALY)$100
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$ income uplift per $1 spent$1,910 per $1$245 per $1$1,243 per $1
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 of which: ORIGIN-country $ uplift per $1 spent$544 per $1$245 per $1$424 per $1
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PROGRAMME SPEND
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Labour MobilityExport MfgCombined
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Total investment (gross outlay)$8,092,500$5,913,750$14,006,250
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Total recovery (placement returned on success)$4,387,500$3,435,833$7,823,333
EM recovery: pilot placement recovered on pilot pass + scale placement recovered on (pilot pass × scale success). Per-company expected, averaged, × portfolio. Ops costs (B14, B16) unrecoverable.
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Programme cost (net)$3,705,000$2,477,917$6,182,917
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 of which: total ops cost (unrecoverable)$942,500$688,750$1,631,250
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IMPACT
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Labour MobilityExport MfgCombined
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Total DCYs (doubled consumption years)1,229,171298,8931,528,064
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Total DALYs averted491,669119,557611,226
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PORTFOLIO HEADLINE STATS
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Labour MobilityExport MfgCombined
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Companies in portfolio26.019.045.0
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Expected pilots passed11.78.620.3
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Expected companies scaled (built)7.66.013.6
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Expected steady-state workers/migrants per year975.37,295.08,270.3
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METHOD NOTES
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DCY = doubled consumption year (continuous method). EM direct DCY computed at HOUSEHOLD level: HH × LN((W_factory + (earners − 1) × W_cf) / (earners × W_cf)) / LN(2). LM family DCY computed per-beneficiary via remittance flow. All wages in PPP $ throughout the model. Programme cost in nominal USD. $ uplift in PPP $.
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DALY = DCY ÷ 2.5 (GiveWell convention).
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Programme cost = gross investment − placement recovery on successful stages. Ops costs are unrecoverable.
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Egger 1.65× spillover (GiveWell 2024 GiveDirectly CEA adjustment of Egger 2022 raw 2.5× multiplier) applied to HH-level direct DCYs in both LM (family DCYs) and EM (factory worker HH DCY, supplier worker HH DCY, and tax DCY).
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Upstream supply chain (Export only): supplier wage bill = α × W_factory × effective_labour_share (= labour_share + (1 − labour_share) × indirect_conversion 0.80). Supplier worker DCY computed at HH level with Egger spillover applied.
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AJF catalytic credit: LM defaults to 30% (direct) × 9% (chained for copycats). EM uses per-company credit: 50% KE Electronics / 20% TZ Apparel (sector established in East Africa) / 50% ET Furniture; chained = squared (25% / 4% / 25%).
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Tax (EM only): factory corporate + payroll + income tax (15%) treated as worth same per-dollar as worker income. No gov-effectiveness haircut applied.
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LEGEND
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Yellow fill → input cell (user-editable, only on *_Inputs sheets)
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Green fill → headline output / GW multiple
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Light blue fill → section subhead
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Cell comments (red triangle) explain rationale and methodology
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