Reasoning for Variables

	B	C	D	E
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2	Varible	our value	our reasons	Citations
3	Chance of X-risk by 2050 (%)	7%	FHI survey gave 19% chance before 2100. We assumed this would be somewhat weighted towards the latter end so picked 7% chance before 2050	https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf
4	Expected number of Global Catastrophic Risks by 2050	0.35	5 times x-risk
5	How much does 1 researcher year of X-risk research decrease x-risk? (%)	0.0005	10,000 researchers working for 10 years halving x-risk chance sounds like a reasonable estimate. (very uncertain!)
6	How much could goverment reduce x-risk chance via policy (not reasearch) if fully commited? (%)	5
7	Chance of cultured ground meat becoming cheaper than normal meat before 2050 (%)	10	Number very unclear. Experts seem to think unlikely. People working on it think very likely	https://animalcharityevaluators.org/research/dietary-impacts/cost-competitive-timeline/
8	Vegan outreach effectiveness (animals not eaten per $)	2.4	ACE mean for MFA outreach	https://www.getguesstimate.com/models/7294?token=aYbYkohTp6snq7jhOvTbK9CsKZ7top-LQ204d35AmrlyDKkm9DGGvmXTWlhVgfaDUERNcuRQn67-n6mXQVMZVQ
9	Avg Chicken Quality of life (0-10, 5 neutral)	3	Seem to have extremely poor lives, particularly egg laying hens
10	Avg Cow Quality of life (0-10, 5 neutral)	6	To our knowledge not farmed overly intensively - putting them at net positive lives on average is something we expect lots of people to disagree with though
11	Avg Pig Quality of life (0-10, 5 neutral)	4	Seem to be farmed intensively enough to have negative lives. Exactly how bad is unclear.
12	Deaths due to climate change 2017-2050	33,000,000	[1] gives climate change causing 700,000 deaths a year by 2030, assume average of 1 million between 2017 and 2050 gives 33,000,000 deaths by 2050.	[1] http://daraint.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/EXECUTIVE-AND-TECHNICAL-SUMMARY.pdf
13	How would a GCR affect global average wellbeing on the Cantril Scale? (0-10 wellfare)	-2	Unclear - but catastrophies do seem have large an negative effects on wellbeing
14	$ per QALY for foreign aid	427	Foreign aid budget 135 billion dollars 2014. 1% increase of foreign aid leads to 0.1% increase in health aid (roughly). Health aid is effective at reducing child mortality/increasing life expectancy. Using lowered child mortality as proxy for QALYs. 1% increase in health aid is 0.135 billion. According to paper, 1 billion leads to 360k fewer child deaths, so 1% of foreign aid leads to 48 600 fewer child deaths. We assume 65 QALYs per saved child. This is supposed to capture other effects as well. (Reminder: Lost QALYs are mostly due to YLLs, not YLDs.) This gives $427 per QALY
15	Effect of deworming an individual in childhood on lifetime earnings (% increase)	0.375	Givewell says each treatment costs $0.49, and also says it puts a 1-2% chance of the effects being as strong those in the worms at work paper, which had treated populations increasing earnings by 21-29%. I have followed a similar path to givewell and just multiplied these together
16	QALYS saved by averting death of child under 5	65	Life expectancy
17	Chance of current CO2 emmsions leading to 6+ degrees of warming before 2050 (%)	3	10% chance of 6 degreees by 2100. Assume this means 3% of 6+ degrees by 2050	http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf
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