Reasoning for Variables
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Varibleour valueour reasonsCitations
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Chance of X-risk by 2050 (%)7%FHI survey gave 19% chance before 2100. We assumed this would be somewhat weighted towards the latter end so picked 7% chance before 2050https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf
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Expected number of Global Catastrophic Risks by 20500.355 times x-risk
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How much does 1 researcher year of X-risk research decrease x-risk? (%)
0.000510,000 researchers working for 10 years halving x-risk chance sounds like a reasonable estimate. (very uncertain!)
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How much could goverment reduce x-risk chance via policy (not reasearch) if fully commited? (%)
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Chance of cultured ground meat becoming cheaper than normal meat before 2050 (%)
10Number very unclear. Experts seem to think unlikely. People working on it think very likely
https://animalcharityevaluators.org/research/dietary-impacts/cost-competitive-timeline/
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Vegan outreach effectiveness (animals not eaten per $)2.4ACE mean for MFA outreach
https://www.getguesstimate.com/models/7294?token=aYbYkohTp6snq7jhOvTbK9CsKZ7top-LQ204d35AmrlyDKkm9DGGvmXTWlhVgfaDUERNcuRQn67-n6mXQVMZVQ
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Avg Chicken Quality of life (0-10, 5 neutral)3Seem to have extremely poor lives, particularly egg laying hens
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Avg Cow Quality of life (0-10, 5 neutral)6To our knowledge not farmed overly intensively - putting them at net positive lives on average is something we expect lots of people to disagree with though
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Avg Pig Quality of life (0-10, 5 neutral)4Seem to be farmed intensively enough to have negative lives. Exactly how bad is unclear.
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Deaths due to climate change 2017-205033,000,000[1] gives climate change causing 700,000 deaths a year by 2030, assume average of 1 million between 2017 and 2050 gives 33,000,000 deaths by 2050.[1] http://daraint.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/EXECUTIVE-AND-TECHNICAL-SUMMARY.pdf
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How would a GCR affect global average wellbeing on the Cantril Scale? (0-10 wellfare)
-2Unclear - but catastrophies do seem have large an negative effects on wellbeing
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$ per QALY for foreign aid427Foreign aid budget 135 billion dollars 2014. 1% increase of foreign aid leads to 0.1% increase in health aid (roughly). Health aid is effective at reducing child mortality/increasing life expectancy. Using lowered child mortality as proxy for QALYs. 1% increase in health aid is 0.135 billion. According to paper, 1 billion leads to 360k fewer child deaths, so 1% of foreign aid leads to 48 600 fewer child deaths. We assume 65 QALYs per saved child. This is supposed to capture other effects as well. (Reminder: Lost QALYs are mostly due to YLLs, not YLDs.) This gives $427 per QALY
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Effect of deworming an individual in childhood on lifetime earnings (% increase)
0.375Givewell says each treatment costs $0.49, and also says it puts a 1-2% chance of the effects being as strong those in the worms at work paper, which had treated populations increasing earnings by 21-29%. I have followed a similar path to givewell and just multiplied these together
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QALYS saved by averting death of child under 565Life expectancy
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Chance of current CO2 emmsions leading to 6+ degrees of warming before 2050 (%)
310% chance of 6 degreees by 2100. Assume this means 3% of 6+ degrees by 2050
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf
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