ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAHAIAJAKAL
1
original dataGiveWell guessGiveWell calculation
2
3
National burden analysisSubnational burden analysis
4
LocationBurkina FasoCascadesHauts-BassinsCentre-SudCentrePlateau CentralCentre-NordWeighted average
5
Data sourceUN IGME (2021)GBD (2021)DHS (2021)MAP (2021)LBD (2017/2019)DHS (2021)MAP (2021)LBD (2017/2019)DHS (2021)MAP (2021)LBD (2017/2019)DHS (2021)MAP (2021)LBD (2017/2019)DHS (2021)MAP (2021)LBD (2017/2019)DHS (2021)MAP (2021)LBD (2017/2019)DHS (2021)MAP (2021)LBD (2017/2019)DHS (2021)MAP (2021)LBD (2017/2019)
6
Population, 2024 estimate-----944,9502,572,566872,8453,623,7841,096,4832,134,352---
7
8
Malaria deaths per year, all-ages-35,963-36,324--1,321--4,095--1,621--1,685--1,138--2,084--11,943-
9
Malaria deaths per year, early neonatal-0----0--0--0--0--0--0--0-
10
Malaria deaths per year, late neonatal-948----35--108--43--44--30--55--315-
11
Malaria deaths per year, post neonatal-6,832----251--778--308--320--216--396--2,269-
12
Malaria deaths per year, 1 to 4 years of age-13,027----478--1,483--587--610--412--755--4,326-
13
14
Malaria deaths per year, under 5 years of age15,39220,807----764--2,369--938--975--658--1,206--6,910-
15
Malaria deaths per year, 5 years of age and older-15,155----557--1,726--683--710--480--878--5,033-
16
17
Malaria incidence rate, all ages, per 100k-37,758-29,30023,617-27,41824,801-25,61322,984-32,60918,922-25,19512,134-31,16820,201-31,66624,694-27,86319,378
18
Malaria incidence rate, under 5, per 100k-98,652--55,592-71,63558,381-66,91954,103-85,19844,540-65,82828,562-81,43347,551-82,73558,129-72,80045,615
19
Malaria incidence rate, 5-14, per 100k-40,896--24,740-29,69625,980-27,74124,077-35,31819,821-27,28912,710-33,75821,161-34,29825,868-30,17920,299
20
21
All-ages malaria prevalence rate-27%------------------------
22
Under-5 malaria prevalence rate according to RDT-32%28%--12%--15%--41%--12%--45%--24%--20%--
23
Under-5 malaria prevalence rate according to microscopy--14%--6%--7%--15%--5%--20%--13%--9%--
24
2-10 malaria prevalence rate---23%18%-22%19%-19%17%-27%12%-18%7%-25%14%-25%18%-21%13%
25
26
1-59 month all-cause mortality rate, per 100,000 people per year-1,517-----------------
27
1-59 month all-cause probability of death, per 1,000 livebirths566830-8036-9440-7832-6521-5227-7037-8431-70
28
1-59 month malaria mortality rate, per 100,000 people per year-492------------------------
29
1-59 month malaria probability of death, per 1,000 livebirths20229--8--9--12--5--11--10--8--
30
Fraction of 1-59 month all-cause mortality due to malaria35%32.44%30.59%--22%--24%--37%--22%--39%--28%--27%--
31
32
Under-5 all-cause mortality rate, per 100,000 people per year-2,138------------------------
33
Under-5 all-cause probability of death, per 1,000 livebirths819648-10678-13061-10552-8939-6947-9359-11053-94
34
Under-5 malaria mortality rate, per 100,000 people per year-507--420--313--409--492--80--299--287--268
35
Under-5 malaria probability of death, per 1,000 livebirths202311--13--11--14--6--13--12--10--
36
Fraction of under-5 all-cause mortality due to malaria24%23.70%22.35%--16.42%--17.29%--27.30%--16.39%--28.53%--20.66%--19.44%--
37
38
All-ages malaria mortality rate per 100,000 people per year-158-150--109--156--174--38--117--112--103-
39
40
Final calculations
41
42
Weight assigned to each data source40%40%20%0%0%20%70%10%20%70%10%20%70%10%20%70%10%20%70%10%20%70%10%20%70%10%
43
44
Under-5 malaria mortality rate per 100,000 people per year, GBD 2021-507------------------------
45
Percentage difference in national malaria burden between GBD 2021 and data source (by data source)-9%0%-59%-----------------------
46
Percent adjustment to GBD 2021 data to account for other sources of national malaria burden (weighted average of data sources)--15%------------------------
47
Under-5 malaria mortality rate per 100,000 people per year, adjusted for non-GBD sources of national malaria burden data-429------------------------
48
49
Percentage difference between subnational and national malaria burden (by data source)------12%-28%-25%+3%+4%-2%+30%+16%+17%-49%-75%-81%+15%-22%-29%+14%-25%-32%-10%-31%-36%
50
Percent adjustment to national malaria burden data to account for differences between subnational and national malaria burden (weighted average of data sources)------24%+3%+19%-70%-15%-18%-27%
51
Regression towards national malaria burden data to account for noisy subnational data------20%-20%-20%-20%-20%-20%-20%
52
Adjusted under-5 malaria mortality rate per 100,000 people per year-----346440494188377368335
53
54
Sense-checks/data triangulation
55
Time trend abnormalities
56
Percentage change in under-5 malaria mortality rate per 100,000 people per year for the year 2019, GBD 2021 vs. GBD 2019-+23%------------------------
57
Percentage change in all-cause mortality, 2020 vs. 2019-4%+1%-34%---22%---29%---13%---6%---14%---43%-----
58
Percentage change in all-cause mortality, 2021 vs. 2020-4%-9%-70%---71%---64%---66%---34%---74%---60%-----
59
Percentage change in all-cause mortality, 2022 vs. 2021-4%-------------------------
60
Percentage change in malaria mortality, 2020 vs. 2019+2%+18%-67%+18%--81%+19%-9%-74%+19%-9%-62%+19%-9%+109%+19%-9%-78%+19%-9%-67%+19%-9%---
61
Percentage change in malaria mortality, 2021 vs. 2020-1%-14%+39%-15%--12%-14%-1%+7%-15%-1%+75%-15%-1%-71%-15%-1%+232%-14%-1%+21%-14%-1%---
62
Percentage change in malaria mortality, 2022 vs. 2021----2%---2%---2%---2%---2%---2%---2%----
63
64
Recency of inputs into modeled burden estimates
65
Year of most recent input into all-cause mortality estimate20132013------------------------
66
Year of most recent input into malaria mortality estimate20152013------------------------
67
68
Comparison of under-5 vs. 1-59 month estimates
69
Implied national/subnational adjustments based on 1-59 month mortality burden-9%--59%---12%--+3%--+30%---49%--+15%--+14%-----
70
Implied national/subnational adjustments based on under-5 mortality burden-13%--54%--+19%---2%--+32%---40%--+25%--+14%-----
71
Difference-4%-+5%--+31%---5%--+2%--+8%--+10%---0%-----
72
73
Plausibility cap for indirect malaria deaths assumption
74
Percentage of 1-59 month all-cause mortality due to malaria (weighted average of data sources)33.81%
75
Current standard assumption for indirect deaths per direct malaria death0.75
76
Implied percentage of 1-59 month all-cause mortality due to direct and indirect malaria death59.17%
77
Plausibility cap for percentage of 1-59 month all-cause mortality due to direct and indirect malaria deaths80%
78
Adjusted assumption for indirect deaths per direct malaria death, accounting for plausibility cap0.75
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100