GiveWell estimate of AMF cost per net (November 2016)
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NOTE: All cells highlighted orange on this page are BUDGETED costs, not actual costs. Note: The budgets and reports on actual spending that we have received do not break down their costs according to the categories that the Roll Back Malaria (RBM) estimate uses. We have approximately tried to fit the costs into the categories we believe are appropriate, but only on a broad level (i.e., these are rough approximations that involve guessing, and we have not spent much time perfecting our categorizations because we do not think the breakdown is very important). Readers should be wary of attempting to compare, e.g., the distribution costs for AMF's Malawi distributions to the distribution costs for the DRC distributions.
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Signed, upcoming distributions
Unsigned, upcoming distribution
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Global net and non-net costs
Malawi net and non-net costsDRC net and non-net costsGhana net and non-net costsTogo 2017Uganda 2017
Papua New Guinea 2017
Malawi 2018Papua New Guinea 2018
Weighted average of past and future Malawi distributions
Weighted average of unannounced planned distributions (countries not yet public)
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Roll Back Malaria harmonization group estimateNtcheu 2012Balaka 2013Dedza 2014Dowa 2015Ntcheu 2015Balaka 2015AverageKasaï Occidental 2014Nord Ubangi 2015AverageUpper West Region 2016Greater Accra Region 2016Northern Region 2016Average
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Number of nets distributed268,420154,230290,770396,900335,000235,000630,532705,468 437,200 1,158,200 1,093,700 2,413,25010,677,0401,159,4001,480,0001,640,6002,891,9004,000,000
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Cost of net$2.70$4.14$3.06$2.91$2.79$2.60$2.66$2.78$2.88$2.60$2.73$2.09 $2.09$2.09$2.09$2.00$2.74$2.00$2.50$2.00$2.64$2.14
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Categories used in global estimateShipping$1.00Concern Universal paid for the non-net costs of this distribution; we have not asked for CU's actual or budgeted costs.$0.29$0.27$0.28$0.19$0.19$0.24$0.55$1.04$0.81Not enough information to break down costs. Below, for pre-distribution and distribution costs, we use an estimate of standard non-net, non-PDCU costs according to AMF ($1.75), (costs we expect were incurred by the Ghanaian government) plus the budgeted costs from AMF's non-profit distribution partner in Ghana.Not enough information to break down costs. Below, we use AMF's estimates of non-net costs from AMF funds status (November 2016) (Unpublished), an estimate of the future AMF organizational cost per LLIN, and calcuations based on AMF's past distributions (see cell formulas)$0.12Not enough information to break down costs. Below, we use AMF's estimates of non-net costs from AMF funds status (November 2016) (Unpublished), an estimate of the future AMF organizational cost per LLIN, and calcuations based on AMF's past distributions (see cell formulas)
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Warehousing$0.21$0.00$0.01$0.02$0.02$0.06$0.02$0.10$0.05$0.07$0.01
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Distribution$0.40$0.21$0.09$0.10$0.07$0.11$0.10$0.57$0.36$0.46$0.05
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Training$0.30$0.05$0.03$0.03$0.02$0.04$0.03$0.01$0.01$0.01$0.02
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Microplanning$0.14$0.57$0.25$0.29$0.36$0.50$0.36$0.69$0.55$0.62$0.18
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Social mobilisation$0.15(Not tracked separately)(Not tracked separately)(Not tracked separately)(Not tracked separately)(Not tracked separately)$0.15$0.10$0.13(Not tracked separately)
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M&E, includes supervision$0.30
(Not tracked seperately/see below)
(Not tracked seperately/see below)
(Not tracked seperately/see below)
(Not tracked seperately/see below)
(Not tracked seperately/see below)
See belowSee below$0.00
(Not tracked seperately/see below)
(Not tracked seperately/see below)
(Not tracked seperately/see below)
(Not tracked seperately/see below)
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AMF-specific M&E6-month follow up surveyWe don't have this data$0.05$0.05$0.04$0.06$0.05$0.05$0.09$0.05$0.07$0.04$0.04$0.04$0.04$0.02
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12-month follow up survey$0.05$0.05$0.03$0.06$0.05$0.05$0.08$0.05$0.07$0.04$0.04$0.04$0.04$0.02
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18-month follow up survey$0.07$0.06$0.04$0.06$0.06$0.05$0.07$0.05$0.06$0.04$0.04$0.04$0.04$0.03
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24-month follow up survey$0.03Not expected$0.10$0.04$0.07$0.06$0.06$0.08$0.05$0.07$0.04$0.04$0.04$0.04$0.03
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30-month follow up survey$0.05Not expected$0.10$0.05$0.07$0.06$0.06$0.08$0.05$0.07$0.04$0.04$0.04$0.04$0.03
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36-month follow up surveyNot expectedNot expected$0.11$0.05$0.08$0.06$0.06$0.08Not expected$0.04Not expectedNot expectedNot expectedNot expected$0.03
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Estimate of non-monetary partner and local government costs during pre-distribution and distribution phases (based on 2012 Ntcheu, Malawi distribution)
$0.00$0.13$0.13$0.13$0.13$0.13$0.13$0.13$0.36$0.37$0.37$0.38$0.38$0.38$0.38$0.29$0.29$0.29$0.13$0.29$0.13$0.29
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Estimate of non-monetary partner and local government costs during post-distribution
Not enough information$0.03$0.07$0.04$0.06$0.05$0.05$0.08$0.05$0.06$0.03$0.03$0.03$0.03$0.07$0.05$0.07$0.06$0.07$0.05$0.08
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AMF organizational expenses$0.00$0.29$0.29$0.29$0.29$0.29$0.29$0.29$0.29$0.29$0.29$0.29$0.29$0.29$0.29$0.08$0.08$0.08$0.08$0.08$0.18$0.08
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Sub-total: Pre-distribution and distribution costs (exluding non-monetary partner and local government costs)
$2.50Not enough information$1.12$0.65$0.72$0.67$0.89$0.76$2.08$2.11$2.09$2.16$2.16$2.16$2.16$1.68$1.68$1.68$0.76$1.68$0.76$1.67
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Sub-total: Post-distribution follow up costs (excluding non-monetary partner and government costs)
$0.00 Not enough information$0.17$0.46$0.25$0.40$0.34$0.33$0.48$0.26$0.36$0.19$0.19$0.19$0.19$0.40$0.30$0.40$0.33$0.40$0.33$0.43
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Total non-net costs$2.50Not enough information$1.75$1.60$1.43$1.55$1.71$1.58$3.30$3.08$3.18$3.05$3.05$3.05$3.05$2.52$2.40$2.52$1.37$2.52$1.47$2.55
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Total cost per net$5.20Not enough information$4.81$4.51$4.22$4.15$4.37$4.35$6.18$5.68$5.92$5.14$5.14$5.14$5.14$4.52$5.14$4.52$3.87$4.52$4.11$4.69
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For internal reference, unpublished calculations at: https://docs.google.com/a/givewell.org/spreadsheets/d/1-jC6bfg3p6yBy7eUsPjD1SUDTs2zpD6BeTnOF5N7dkg/edit?usp=sharing
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Summary
AMF org
Distributions (November 2016)
Balaka13-actual+Dedza14-budget
Dedza 2014 actual costs
Dowa 2015 PDCU 06 actual costs
Dowa 2015 PDCU 12 actual costs
Balaka2015 budget (not final)
Ntcheu2015 budget (not final)
Dedza 2014 PDCU 06 actual costs
Dedza 2014 PDCU 12 actual costs
Balaka 2013 PDCU 20 actual costs
Ntcheu 2015 actual costs
Balaka 2015 actual costs
Dowa 2015 actual costs
Ntcheu 2012 other costs
Ntcheu2012-24m PDCU actual
Schedule for Update of NNCs
Ntcheu2012-33m PDCU actual
Balaka2013 -12m PDCU actual
Dowa 2015 budget
Kasai Occidental 2014 actual
Kasaï Occidental 2014 budget
Kasai Occidental PDCUs 06 12 18 actual costs
Nord Ubangi 2015-16 actual costs and PDCU budget
Ghana 2016 budget
Exchange rates