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Elizabeth Warren has a problem. She is getting less than 15% of the vote in a lot of states.
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Under the Democrats' rules, that means those votes get "thrown away"[1].
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If Warren gets 20% of the vote, she "loses the state", but still wins a little. She gets 20% of the state's delegates.
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But if she gets 14% of the vote, she gets nothing. It's as if those votes never existed.
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I decided to count how many votes for Elizabeth Warren the Democrats have "thrown away".
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(Note: This is an estimate. It's complicated because some delegates are "statewide" and some are local to a district.
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So if Warren loses a state but wins a city, she might still get a delegate. I'll try not to count those votes as wasted, here.)
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StateDateVotes for WarrenVote% for WarrenWarren delegatesState-level
"waste"		Districts 15%
by Warren
Votes in districts
15% by Warren
Votes "wasted"
For sure?All delegates
allocated?		SourceNotes
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IowaFeb 3(Caucus)8CertainYes[2]
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New HampshireFeb 1127,3879.20%027,387027,387CertainYes[2][3]
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NevadaFeb 22(Caucus)0CertainYes[2]
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South CarolinaFeb 2937,3467.10%037,346037,346CertainYes[2][4]
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AlabamaMar 326,1295.80%026,129026,129Delegates TBD48 / 52[2][5]
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American SamoaMar 350505CertainYes[2][6]
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ArkansasMar 322,86010%022,860022,860CertainYes[2][7]`
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CaliforniaMar 3359,35312%9359,353
Double-click me
CA12 (21.9%, 23,884)
CA13 (23.8%, 17,995)
CA18 (15.3%, 13,128)
CA28 (20.6%, 16,486)
CA33 (15.5%, 12,418)
83,911275,44290% counted271 / 415[2][8][9]
CALIFORNIA HAS A VOTE BY MAIL OPTION AND CANNOT PRODUCE A LEGAL FINAL TALLY UNTIL APR 3
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ColoradoMar 3131,07617.20%10Assume all073% counted39 / 67[2][10]
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MaineMar 331,42215.80%40Assume all098% countedYes[2][11]
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MassachusettsMar 3292,64121.20%230Assume all099% counted88 / 91[2][12]
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MinessotaMar 3114,75315.40%100Assume all0Delegates TBD74 / 75[2][13]
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North CarolinaMar 3138,50210.50%2138,502ESTIMATE68,67669,826[2][17]
NORTH CAROLINA ASSIGNS DELEGATES BY DISTRICT[19] BUT ONLY COUNTY LEVEL RESULTS ARE AVAILABLE[18] I USED THE COUNTY TOTALS AS AN ESTIMATE
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OklahomaMar 340,67613.40%040,67640,676CertainYes[2][14]
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TenneseeMar 353,55510.40%153,555ESTIMATE14,70238,85399% counted53 / 64[2][20]
ESTIMATED USING COUNTY LEVEL DATA[21]
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TexasMar 3237,02711.40%1237,027ESTIMATE37,185199,842Still counting159 / 228[2][24]
ESTIMATED USING COUNTY LEVEL DATA[25]
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UtahMar 326,90415.40%00Assume all073% counted12/29[2][16]
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VermontMar 319,81612.60%019,81619,816CertainYes[2][15]
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VirginiaMar 3142,45510.80%2142,455ESTIMATE37,185105,270CertainYes[2][22]
ESTIMATED USING COUNTY LEVEL DATA[23]
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TOTALSVotes for WarrenWarren Delegates
Votes thrown away completely
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1,701,90761863,452
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Why did I do this?
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I made this to show why, although I believe Warren is the best candidate in the Presidential primary race, I think she needs to drop out.
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If she was doing better, she could stay in, and supporters could vote for her, and those voters wouldn't have to worry about "throwing away their vote",
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because even if she "lost" she'd still be racking up delegates. She could try to give those delegates to a similar candidate, or use them to get concessions.
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Unfortunately not only is she not doing well enough to win, she is not doing well enough to gather enough delegates for a brokered convention strategy.
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This document is up to date as of 2020-03-04 5:31 PM. I will update it over time. If you find errors please let me know @mcclure111 on Twitter.
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Sources
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[1]270 to Win
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[2]
NPR delegate tracker, 2020-MAR-4 2:47 PM EST
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[3]
NPR New Hampshire, 2020-MAR-4 12:21 PM EST
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[4]
NPR South Carolina, 2020-MAR-4 12:24 PM EST
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[5]
NPR Alabama, 2020-MAR-4 2:50 PM EST
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[6]
NBC American Samoa, 2020-MAR-4 2:54 PM EST
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[7]
NPR Arkansas, 2020-MAR-4 2:54 PM EST
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[8]
NPR California, 2020-MAR-4 3:07 PM EST
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[9]
California Secretary of State (district results), 2020-MAR-4 3:14 PM
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[10]
NPR Colorado, 2020-MAR-4 3:34 PM
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[11]
NPR Maine, 2020-MAR-4 3:41 PM
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[12]
NPR Massachusetts, 2020-MAR-4 3:41 PM
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[13]
NPR Minnesota, 2020-MAR-4 3:46 PM
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[14]
NPR Oklahoma, 2020-MAR-4 3:57 PM
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[15]
NPR Vermont, 2020-MAR-4 4:02 PM
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[16]
NPR Utah, 2020-MAR-4 4:06 PM
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[17]
NPR North Carolina, 2020-MAR-4 4:15 PM
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[18]
NYT North Carolina (county results), 2020-MAR-4 4:20 PM
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[19]
North Carolina Democratic Party Delegate Selection Plan
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[20]
NPR Tenessee, 2020-MAR-4 4:56 PM
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[21]
NYT Tenessee, 2020-MAR-4 5:02 PM
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[22]
NPR Virginia, 2020-MAR-4 5:07 PM
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[23]
NYT Virginia, 2020-MAR-4 5:09 PM
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[24]
NPR Texas, 2020-MAR-4 5:17 PM
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[25]
Texas secretary of state election results (district results), 2020-MAR-4 5:19 PM
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Note: All NPR data ultimately sourced from AP
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